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View Full Version : Actual Strength of Schedule for 2011



BlueJayC
05-22-2012, 12:36 PM
Not sure why it took me FOREVER to find this(I was probably looking in the wrong places) but this is the actual strength of schedule that NFL teams played in the 2011 season based on the actual records of all teams at the end of the season. Tends to be more telling the NFL's projected SOS as that's based on a teams opponents' records from the previous year. Projected SOS is the most misleading/meaningless figure out there. For example the Saints projected SOS for 2011 was 13th......when in reality looking at the actual SOS they played the easiest schedule in the league. St. Louis had it brutal......actual SOS below:</P>


http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h127/jasonjcollins/Actual2011SOS.jpg</P>


Compare that to the projected SOS going into last season: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/35095/2011-strength-of-schedule</P>


Giants were projected toplay the 19th toughest schedule in the league when in reality they played the 8th toughest schedule.</P>


If this was covered already my bad.....</P>

BeatYale
05-22-2012, 03:46 PM
Nice find.

giantsfan420
05-22-2012, 03:53 PM
I dont get it, so we dont have the toughest sos? Ive seen it reported a few times now...thats the chart for this season?

repeatchamps
05-22-2012, 04:51 PM
I dont get it, so we dont have the toughest sos? Ive seen it reported a few times now...thats the chart for this season?</P>


This chart was last season's strength of schedule.</P>

jakegibbs
05-22-2012, 04:52 PM
Not sure why it took me FOREVER to find this*(I was probably looking in the wrong places) but this is the actual strength of schedule that NFL teams played in the 2011 season based on the actual records of all teams at the end of the season. Tends to be more telling the NFL's projected SOS as that's based on a teams opponents' records from the previous year. Projected SOS is the most misleading/meaningless figure out there. For example the Saints projected SOS for 2011 was 13th......when in reality looking at the actual SOS they played the easiest schedule in the league. St. Louis had it brutal......actual SOS below:</P>


http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h127/jasonjcollins/Actual2011SOS.jpg</P>


Compare that to the projected SOS going into last season: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/35095/2011-strength-of-schedule</P>


Giants were projected to*play the 19th toughest schedule in the league when in reality they played the 8th toughest schedule.</P>


If this was covered already my bad.....</P>

Not so fast my friend. Here's the actual final SOS poll & the NYG had the 2nd toughest schedule last year. Served them well in the plyaoffs I think too.

http://www.rogerspoll.com/nfl_2011_sos_final.html

jakegibbs
05-22-2012, 04:53 PM
I dont get it, so we dont have the toughest sos? Ive seen it reported a few times now...thats the chart for this season?

They had the 2nd toughest last year.
"http://www.rogerspoll.com/nfl_2011_sos_final.html"

giantsfan420
05-22-2012, 04:55 PM
thats what i thought, we had the 2nd strongest last season and the most difficult this season...

Drez
05-22-2012, 04:56 PM
Not so fast my friend. Here's the actual final SOS poll &amp; the NYG had the 2nd toughest schedule last year. Served them well in the plyaoffs I think too.

http://www.rogerspoll.com/nfl_2011_sos_final.html
That chart is flawed as ****. Of course if you add in playoff games and base it off 20 games and not 16 are we going to have a tougher schedule.

I think it's safe to assume that you should only base SoS on the regular season.

BlueJayC
05-22-2012, 04:57 PM
The Giants have the toughest "projected" strength of schedule for the upcoming 2012-13 season based on the final record of all NFL teams last year (2011-12 season results). We won't know their "actual" SOS until the 2012-13 season is over and we can look back on the records of all the teams they played.</P>


The chart provided above shows what their "actual" strength of schedule wasLAST year. Meaning it's a retro-active look at the toughness of their schedule based on all NFL teams' final results.The ESPN link shows what their "projected" SOS was prior to the start of the 2011-12 season and that was based on the 2010-11 season results.</P>


You hear fans throw out the "we played the toughest schedule"line all the time....but you really can't tell the difficulty of the schedule from a numbers standpoint until after the season is over. Granted tough interdivision play and fluke wins/losses skew this a bit but it's a better guage of the actual SOS than pre-season projections which are usually wayyyyyy off and rarely hold merit.</P>

Drez
05-22-2012, 04:57 PM
thats what i thought, we had the 2nd strongest last season and the most difficult this season...
We had the 2nd toughest schedule if you include the 4 playoff games. And I'm not too sure if for the records of the playoff games they count only the final regular season records or was SF 14-3 when the faced us? Was NE 13-3 or 15-3?

Very bad chart.

Drez
05-22-2012, 05:01 PM
The Giants have the toughest "projected" strength of schedule for the upcoming 2012-13 season based on the final record of all NFL teams last year (2011-12 season results). We won't know their "actual" SOS until the 2012-13 season is over and we can look back on the records of all the teams they played.</p>


The chart provided above shows what their "actual" strength of schedule wasLAST year. Meaning it's a retro-active look at the toughness of their schedule based on all NFL teams' final results.The ESPN link which showed what their "projected" SOS was prior to the start of the 2011-12 season and that was based on the 2010-11 season results.</p>


You hear fans throw out the "we played the toughest schedule"line all the time....but you really can't tell the difficulty of the schedule from a numbers standpoint until after the season is over. Granted tough interdivision play and fluke wins/losses skew this a bit but it's a better guage of the actual SOS than pre-season projections which are usually wayyyyyy off and rarely hold merit.</p>
And even then, it's not necessarily accurate to say just because a team finished with a poor record that they were bad all year... Things like that don't take into account how a team was playing when we played them... For instance, say for this upcoming year the Saints start of 5-0, but in game 6 Brees hurts his shoulder again is out for the year and the Saints fail to win another game all season. For those teams that played the Saints with Brees, it'll come up with them having lost to a 5-11 team, and for the teams that played the Saints after that they just beat up on a 5-11 team.

TuckYou
05-22-2012, 05:09 PM
You cant really walk backwards through the SOS schedule. Let me explain: By winning 9 games last year, and losing 7, our SOS was altered. If we lost a game to lets say the cowboys, they would of went 9-7, and we would of had a tougher schedule. If we beat the Eagles the 2nd game, they would of been 7-9, and we would of had an easier schedule. So by winning more, makes the schedule easier. Saints were 13-3, Packers 15-1, Pats 13-3, so the numbers are skued. By the Saints beating 13 teams, they made their SOS after the year look a lot easier.</P>


Also, We played the Bills when they were undefeated and looking like world beaters.... they didnt even make the playoffs. So that game was in fact a tougher game then when it is analyzed on paper after the season is over. Also injuries control that too. If Peyton got hurt lets say week 14, and the Colts were 13-0, that game on paper would look like the hardest game ever, but in reality, they have no backup QB and the game is easy as pie.</P>

BlueJayC
05-22-2012, 05:19 PM
Taking all the records out of the equation my gut feeling is if you play in the NFC East or the AFC North you're playing the toughest schedule in eachconference regardless.......just hard nosed teams beating the snot out of each other twice a year.

appodictic
05-22-2012, 05:26 PM
I do not agree with this. By loosing a lot you make your schedule "harder" since you lost so much. It's self fofilling. The patriots had an "easier" schedule because they won alot. The giants just did enough winning to squeek into the playoffs so there schedule is the "hardest" of the people who lost more.

FeaglesPuntsEaglesRunts
05-22-2012, 06:10 PM
This data can be interpreted in many different ways, and there are a number of ways to look at the numbers. Statistics don't tell the full story of anything, otherwise coaches would be actuaries and quarterbacks would be mathematicians. Some guy like Stephen Hawking would win MVP every year.

Even if you are playing tough teams, you might be playing teams you match up well or poorly against.

SoS is a meaningless stat no matter which way you cut it. It's fun to look at, but there is a reason they actually play the games.

BeatYale
05-22-2012, 06:15 PM
I do not agree with this. By loosing a lot you make your schedule "harder" since you lost so much. It's self fofilling. The patriots had an "easier" schedule because they won alot. The giants just did enough winning to squeek into the playoffs so there schedule is the "hardest" of the people who lost more.


Right. The teams wins and losses should not be included in it. Obviously they are though, because it shows 256 games worth of results for each team's opponents. It should be 240 (after removing the 16 games worth of wins and losses that the team generated).

ShakeNBake
05-22-2012, 07:23 PM
Taking all the records out of the equation my gut feeling is if you play in the NFC East or the AFC North you're playing the toughest schedule in eachconference regardless.......just hard nosed teams beating the snot out of each other twice a year.

You could make the same argument for the NFC south now with NO,Carolina,Tampa and Atlanta. It seems that recently the NFC has become a lot stronger than its AFC counterparts with a few exceptions like Pittsburgh and NE.