PDA

View Full Version : David Wilson Over/Under/ Expectations



juice33s
07-24-2012, 05:02 PM
I've taken a look at the past five seasons of 1st round Running-backs and their rookie year production which has led me to these numbers for over under:
Attempts- O/U 153
Rushing Yards- O/U 668
YPC- O/U 4.4
TD's (rushing)- O/U 5.5
Catches- O/U 20.5
Rec Yards- O/U 173.5
Rec TD's- .5

Also if Wilson split these numbers down the middle would he meet your expectations?

2011
Pick Player Attempts Yds Avg TD's Rec Yds TD's
28th Mark Ingram- 122 474 3.9 5 11 46 0

2010
9th CJ Spiller- 74 283 3.8 0 24 157 1
12th Ryan Mathews- 158 678 4.3 7 22 145 0
30th Javid Best- 171 555 3.2 4 58 487 2
2009
12th Moreno- 247 947 3.8 7 28 213 2
27th Donald Brown- 78 281 3.6 3 11 169 0
31st Beanie Wells- 176 793 4.5 7 12 143 0
2008
4th D. McFadden- 113 499 4.4 4 29 285 0
13th J. Stewart- 184 836 4.5 10 8 47 0
22nd Felix Jones- 30 266 8.9 3 2 10 0
23rd R. Mendenhall 19 58 3.1 0 2 17 0
24th Chris Johnson- 251 1228 4.9 9 43 260 1
2007
7th Adrian Peterson- 238 1341 5.6 12 19 268 1
12th Marshawn Lynch- 280 1115 4.0 7 18 184 0
152.9 668.1 4.37 5.6 20.5 173.6 .5

juice33s
07-24-2012, 05:14 PM
Attempts- O/U 153: UNDER- Jacobs only had 152 carries with AB missing a substantial amount of time. You gotta figure atleast early on Danny Ware will eat up alot of those carries

Rushing Yards- O/U 668 OVER- but just barely. Jacobs averaged 830 yds a season in his last four as a Giant. I see Wilson topping out around 700

YPC- O/U 4.4 OVER- I'm thinking around 4.6

TD's (rushing)- O/U 5.5 OVER- The short yardage duties are open and Wilson's quick compact style of running might be a good match around the goal line

Catches- O/U 20.5 UNDER- If there's one obvious weakness in Wilson's game it's pass protection, so i don't see the Giants using him a whole lot on obvious passing downs

Rec Yards- O/U 173.5 UNDER- Same as above

Rec TD's- .5 OVER- He'll probably take a screen pass to the house

Fuhgeddaboutit
07-24-2012, 05:15 PM
I want to see Over, but I might go under here. I still think we might need to pick up a FA before the deadline too.

lamas
07-24-2012, 05:34 PM
My expectations for Wilson this season are pretty low actually. I'm thinking Bradshaw gets the bulk of the carries this year (please stay healthy AB) and Wilson is brought on slow. I'd be happy if by week 12 (after the bye), Wilson shows he can protect the football, pick up the blitz, and that it's clear why we chose him in the first round (power/elusiveness/home run threat). Stats don't really come into play for me as long as he's showing improvement.

By 2013, I'd like to see a 50/50 split with Bradshaw and approaching 1,000yards.

titwio
07-24-2012, 05:43 PM
Attempts- O/U 153:
Under

Rushing Yards- O/U 668:
Under

YPC- O/U 4.4:
Over (I'll predict around 4.7)

TD's (rushing)- O/U 5.5:
Under (I can see 5 max...probably around 4)

Catches- O/U 20.5:
Under

Rec Yards- O/U 173.5:
Over (I think he'll have some big gains on some of his screens)

Rec TD's- .5:
Over (Maybe 2)

*Thought I'd test out some of this software in my response*.

Captain Chaos
07-24-2012, 07:19 PM
Not that I don't love Bradshaw; however, he'll get injured and have to be held out four or five games, I think the kid will have a solid year.

jomo
07-24-2012, 08:37 PM
Attempts- O/U 153 Under
Rushing Yards- O/U 668 Under
YPC- O/U 4.4 Over
TD's (rushing)- O/U 5.5 Over
Catches- O/U 20.5 Under
Rec Yards- O/U 173.5 Over
Rec TD's- .5 Under

888888
07-24-2012, 09:32 PM
how many times will he miss/ pick up the correct blocking assignment?

juice33s
07-24-2012, 09:39 PM
how many times will he miss/ pick up the correct blocking assignment?
There will be some growing pains for sure, but do you remember a game a few years back against the Saints when Eli chewed Bradshaw out for a missed blitz pick?...Anyway, Bradshaw no doubt grew from that experience helping him to become perhaps the best pass blocking runningback in the entire NFL.

With that in mind AB will be the Giants predominant 3rd down back

BigBlue1971
07-25-2012, 03:48 PM
Attempts- O/U 153 Under
Rushing Yards- O/U 668 over
YPC- O/U 4.4 Over
TD's (rushing)- O/U 5.5 Over
Catches- O/U 20.5 Under
Rec Yards- O/U 173.5 Over
Rec TD's- .5 over

nycisgreat
07-25-2012, 05:38 PM
Eli is saying so many positive things about this guy. He said that is guys is the fastest RB he has seen since he has been a Giant. He also mentioned that he has great hands and he is picking up the offense pretty quickly.

Rat_bastich
07-26-2012, 01:38 AM
If Bradshaw stays healthy I believe Wilson will have around 550 yards. Take into account Ware(or whomever) getting a few carries as well. Touchdown -wise he may see alot of his action in goal line packages so his numbers may be pretty decent here either catching a td or rushing for one...I'll go with 7 here.

Attempts: 153(under), Rushing yards: 668(under), YPC: 4.4(over), TD's (rushing)- 5(under), Catches- 20.5(under), Rec Yards- 173.5(over), Rec TD's- .5(over)

Guess: Att: 100, Rush Yds: 550, YPC: 5.5, Rushing TD's: 4, Receptions: 15, Reception Yards: 190,Reception TD's: 3

I think he'll catch one or two in the flats and take it almost to the house or all the way there in order to make the 190 yards possible. Plus he'll have a couple of carries that he takes a couple of negative yards and then a few for some long gains to even out hsi average.

Toadofsteel
07-26-2012, 10:21 AM
My expectations for Wilson this season are pretty low actually. I'm thinking Bradshaw gets the bulk of the carries this year (please stay healthy AB) and Wilson is brought on slow. I'd be happy if by week 12 (after the bye), Wilson shows he can protect the football, pick up the blitz, and that it's clear why we chose him in the first round (power/elusiveness/home run threat). Stats don't really come into play for me as long as he's showing improvement.

By 2013, I'd like to see a 50/50 split with Bradshaw and approaching 1,000yards.

Wouldn't it be funny if the 49ers cut Jacobs and we end up signing him back for vet min?

lamas
07-26-2012, 11:24 AM
Wouldn't it be funny if the 49ers cut Jacobs and we end up signing him back for vet min?

If Jacobs were to somehow find his way back to NY (highly unlikely)...Earth, Fire, and Lightning?

nycsportzfan
07-26-2012, 11:30 AM
Not that I don't love Bradshaw; however, he'll get injured and have to be held out four or five games, I think the kid will have a solid year. This is what i also think.. People around here know i didn't love the David Wilson pick, mostly all due to i thought there was more value on the board, but the kid is certainly explosive, and gonna have a nice amount of carries, due to Ahmad being at least dinged up, if not missing a few games.. WIlson is clearly the 2nd best RB on our team, talent wise, right now, with potential to be a num 1.. That means, hes gonna get his opp's on this team, and hes got the talent to due damage with carries while in there.

David Wilson is growing on me all ready.. I actually think hes gonna be pretty solid as a rookie... I never had much of a issue with him as a RB, but more so i thought the value wasen't there with wilson, as guys dropped.. BUt, now that the draft is a bit gone by, i think it was a solid draft pick..

dannyboomboom1
07-26-2012, 12:39 PM
I think he can very well exceed those numbers if given the chances, but I don't think he will get that many chances in his rookie year. The Giants notoriously take it slow on rookie RBs. Bradshaw and Ware will get most of the carries and Scott will see more time as well in 3rd down situations. Wilson will work in sparingly and possibly see his role increased late in season but not enough to surpass the O/U.

EliManningHBGPA
07-26-2012, 09:16 PM
I personally expect him to have more of an impact late in the season. He will definitely see "some" time early. 5-8 carries per game till the half-way point. But after a half season of practice and being coached-up, I expect a huge late-season and post-season impact.

JesseJames
07-27-2012, 06:24 PM
once TC sees that Wilson knows his playbook and can hang on to the ball and knows his blocking assignments I think at that point the sky is the limit for him. TC is always a little scared of using rookies until he has confidence in them and if they turn the ball over it might be a while til we see them again, but I have a good feeling about Wilson, however if my memory serves me correctly he did have some issues with fumbling in college....

888888
08-07-2012, 10:06 PM
I think his # of plays will be severely limited at first... there really aren't that many practices these days... Scott or Ware or Brown should be further along in knowledge of offense by now... Killdrive will put him in for a few plays with no blocking assignments to maybe hit home run... besides blocking and ball control issues he has to learn to not run around (east-west or backwards ) too much .. ..Patience with this player will pay off

giantsfan420
08-07-2012, 10:11 PM
i think randle is the guy we see come on strong towards the middle/end of the season. i expect wilson to be the 2 rb by week 3 at the latest and i actually expect a similar split between 44 and 27...jmo tho

wilson did a lot of pass protection at VT, and he also was a viable dump pass option. i think the only thing for him is the playbook and los checks. if he can get those two things down ASAP, i expect wilson(or randle tbh) to win OROY

ChuckKnoxx
08-07-2012, 10:18 PM
I would say him and Randle are the two kids I am most looking forward to seeing contribute from jump street.

The sky is the limit with Wilson. In our system Wilson should have close to 500 rushing yards and way more than 173 receiving yards.

Either way its going to be a nice change of pace to not see a back come in when Bradshaw goes out get stuffed in the backfield. Love Jacobs even still, but the man thought he had the agility of Walter Payton.

davepc
08-07-2012, 10:19 PM
Whats the Over/Under for not getting Eli killed because he makes a rookie mistake on a blitz pickup call?

zimonami
08-07-2012, 10:31 PM
Not that I don't love Bradshaw; however, he'll get injured and have to be held out four or five games, I think the kid will have a solid year.
I agree. AB is scratchin' and clawing for every inch and can't help but tweak an ankle, toe, etc. It's the nature of his typical season.
Wilson will have188 carries at 4 YPC (752 yds) and 8 TD's and 32 Rec. for 300 yds.

jomo
08-07-2012, 11:15 PM
Alot will have to do with the development of the OL but it is a reasonably safe bet for the over.

GameTime
08-07-2012, 11:26 PM
nice to think he will be a huge surprise and tear it up.......
ya never know....

giantsfan420
08-07-2012, 11:56 PM
Whats the Over/Under for not getting Eli killed because he makes a rookie mistake on a blitz pickup call?

lol please dont even suggest such an idea.

he's actually not that bad in pass protection. redeye posted a vid clip that shows he is pretty decent at it actually. its just a matter of knowing the checks and audibles.

giantsfan420
08-07-2012, 11:57 PM
I agree. AB is scratchin' and clawing for every inch and can't help but tweak an ankle, toe, etc. It's the nature of his typical season.
Wilson will have188 carries at 4 YPC (752 yds) and 8 TD's and 32 Rec. for 300 yds.
that would be awesome.

anyone here think wilson can hit 1k WITH bradshaw healthy>

fourth&forever
08-08-2012, 12:07 AM
Something tells me he will be outstanding for us. I mean like Rodney Hampton good.

Toadofsteel
08-08-2012, 02:24 AM
Attempts- O/U 153: I'm calling over. Bradshaw will have to split carries soon enough if his feet can't hold up.
Rushing Yards- O/U 668: Over, but not by much. Extra carries will improve this, but I also predict a huge TFL at some point in the season.
YPC- O/U 4.4 Under, because of said TFL
TD's (rushing)- O/U 5.5 Over, if he can get past the first wave of defenders, he can easily make people miss and take it to the house.
Catches- O/U 20.5 Under, with all the weapons Eli has, he probably won't get much more than some checkdowns
Rec Yards- O/U 173.5 This, however, is over, since his YAC will be through the roof.
Rec TD's- .5 Over due to YAC as well.