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View Full Version : SackSEER predicted 3.8 sacks for JPP through his first 5 seasons



ajd121
12-12-2011, 04:22 PM
You might want to check your calculations

<h3>Jason Pierre-Paul, University of South Florida</h3>


Vertical: 30.5", Short Shuttle: 4.67, SRAM: 0.44, Missed Games: 26

Projection: 3.8 Sacks through Year 5</p>


This projection is not a misprint. Although Pierre-Paul is widely
regarded as one of the top edge rushers by draftniks, it is hard to
conceive of a prospect that SackSEER would like less.</p>


Is it fair to say that Pierre-Paul 26 missed games because he spent
his first two years in junior college? Yes, because the few recent edge
rusher prospects with junior college experience were among the worst
defensive draft picks in recent memory. The illustrious list includes Anton Palepoi (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/18172/anton-palepoi), Jerome McDougle (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16478/jerome-mcdougle), Tony Bryant (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17990/tony-bryant), Lamar King, Erik Flowers (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/18380/erik-flowers), Michael Boireau and most recently, David Veikune (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/22253/david-veikune),
Cleveland's 2009 second-round pick, who did not record a sack as a
rookie and was inactive for much of the season. Unless you count Julian Peterson (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16682/julian-peterson), a 4-3 linebacker who doesn't fit this study, you have to go back to Leonard Little (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16389/leonard-little)
in 1998 to find a former junior college player who panned out in the
NFL, and Little spent only one year at junior college. When Tony Bryant (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17990/tony-bryant) is your upside, you're in trouble. </p>


So why do junior college edge rushers struggle so mightily when
transitioning to the NFL? Most edge rusher prospects who play at the
junior college level miss two years worth of their NCAA eligibility, and
they are understandably "raw" when they enter the professional ranks.
Although many coaches believe that such a player can be "coached up,"
the coaching staff can only devote so much of its valuable coaching
resources to a single player. Moreover, many players who go to a junior
college have significant or severe academic issues, and expecting them
to digest a complicated NFL playbook while also "catching up" on their
fundamentals may be unrealistic.</p>


However, even if we removed the missed games adjustment, Pierre-Paul
would still have the worst projection in this class. Although
Pierre-Paul's "handflips" video has earned him the distinction as the
2010 NFL Draft's consummate physical "freak," he put up poor numbers in
all of the workout metrics that matter to SackSEER. This is certainly
not the first time that similar "gimmicky" athleticism has not
translated into workout numbers. For instance, just last year, San Diego
State defensive lineman Jarron Gilbert (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/22223/jarron-gilbert)
made waves (pardon the pun) with a widely circulated video depicting
Gilbert jumping out of a swimming pool flat footed. Despite his aquatic
jumping ability, Gilbert only registered a 35.5-inch vertical leap at
the Combine. </p>


The ability of Pierre-Paul to translate his particular brand of
athleticism to pass rushing success is speculative at best. Overall, the
general manager who pulls the trigger on Pierre-Paul better be very
confident that he has something special -- so special that it will
completely buck the historical trends.</p>

nygsb42champs
12-12-2011, 04:24 PM
I am glad he was wrong.

steve12smith
12-12-2011, 04:25 PM
lmao thats why they arent GM's or have real NFL jobs and they run a stupid website...they dont know JACK.

You down with JPP?? Yeah you know me!!

slipknottin
12-12-2011, 04:43 PM
It was just a metric some guy created to see if he could predict success. First year he used it it royally screwed up, it had Jerry Hughes as the best end, and JPP as the worst...

JPP probably screwed it up by testing pretty poorly at the combine. Don't know what happened with Hughes. Guy barely even plays.

But anyway, he has to fix the metrics so it can be more accurate.