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View Full Version : Interesting Stats - Wilson vs. Other Rookie RB's



BlueJayC
01-08-2013, 04:06 PM
Wilson has a higher yards per carry average and better touchdown to touch percentage than Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris.....only thing he didn't have that matches those guys was opportunity/touches:

Attempts Yards TD's Yds/Carry TD Every # Carries
David Wilson 71 - 358 - 4 - 5.0 - 17
Trent Richardson 267 - 950 - 11 - 3.6 - 24
Doug Martin 319 - 1454 - 11 - 4.6 - 29
Alfred Morris 335 - 1613 - 13 - 4.8 - 25

Obviously there's no way to determine if he would've matched the output of the other three backs if given the chance but with that being said I think he was working with a worse/makeshift offensive line than the other three guys and still had better averages across the board. If you take his averages and give him 200 carries on the year his "projected" numbers would've looked like this:

Attempts Yards TD's Yds/Carry TD Every # Carries
David Wilson 250 - 1250 - 14 - 5.0 - 17

The reason I ran the numbers is because I remember seeing posts about other guys wishing they drafted Martin and threads about wanting to draft a running back next year.

Mlerman17
01-08-2013, 04:20 PM
I think that it would be difficult for Wilson to average 5 yards a carry for an entire season unless he consistently ripped off long runs which would be difficult with our oline. Interesting nonetheless.

Moke
01-08-2013, 04:46 PM
He has so many less carries than the other RBs, hence why he has more yards per carry.

No offense, but really don't think it's that interesting.

BlueJayC
01-08-2013, 05:06 PM
He has so many less carries than the other RBs, hence why he has more yards per carry.

No offense, but really don't think it's that interesting.

You could make that argument if he had 10-20 carries but anything over 50 is legit......it's not like he had 1 carry for 20 yards......he carried the ball over 70 times and still maintained that average......also assuming that average would drop is just as much as a stretch as saying it would increase. He has the breakaway speed ability to make any play a big play......a homerun threat like Chris Johnson......not many guys are going to catch him from behind so there's just as just as good a chance that his average would get better the more carries he gets.

To put it more into perspective....down the stretch of the season Adrian Peterson's avg jumped up to 6 yards per carry as he started breaking off longer runs towards the end of the year. Averages are simply that.....the yards divided by the number of attempts they could go either way very easily but more times than not are right in line what they're currently at.

Moke
01-08-2013, 05:16 PM
You could make that argument if he had 10-20 carries but anything over 50 is legit......it's not like he had 1 carry for 20 yards......he carried the ball over 70 times and still maintained that average......also assuming that average would drop is just as much as a stretch as saying it would increase. He has the breakaway speed ability to make any play a big play......a homerun threat like Chris Johnson......not many guys are going to catch him from behind so there's just as just as good a chance that his average would get better the more carries he gets.

To put it more into perspective....down the stretch of the season Adrian Peterson's avg jumped up to 6 yards per carry as he started breaking off longer runs towards the end of the year. Averages are simply that.....the yards divided by the number of attempts they could go either way very easily but more times than not are right in line what they're currently at.

But you can't compare his 70 carries to their 250 carries. If Wilson had 250 carries, you wouldn't know if he dropped down to 3 or went up to 7. Most likely, he would have dropped.


The more carries you have, the more tired you get... It's a significant margin between 250 carries and 70 carries

You bring up Adrian Peterson, but he hit 6.0 once.... and he fluctuated a lot between 4 and 6. And this is Adrian Peterson we are talking about...

dakotajoe
01-08-2013, 05:23 PM
Wilson definitely has the home run threat and the ability to break one loose like some of those other rookies don't have.

giantsfan420
01-08-2013, 05:27 PM
which is why i predict wilson eclipses 1200 yds next year and becomes part of the top rb conversation. thanks for the info

Rudyy
01-08-2013, 05:29 PM
Who is David Wilson?

Cloud57
01-08-2013, 05:40 PM
which is why i predict wilson eclipses 1200 yds next year and becomes part of the top rb conversation. thanks for the infoHe'll only do that if he gets the start, but Tom still doesn't fully trust him

Cloud57
01-08-2013, 05:40 PM
Who is David Wilson?I'm David Wilson

hadenough
01-08-2013, 05:40 PM
Wilson has a higher yards per carry average and better touchdown to touch percentage than Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris.....only thing he didn't have that matches those guys was opportunity/touches:

Attempts Yards TD's Yds/Carry TD Every # Carries
David Wilson 71 - 358 - 4 - 5.0 - 17
Trent Richardson 267 - 950 - 11 - 3.6 - 24
Doug Martin 319 - 1454 - 11 - 4.6 - 29
Alfred Morris 335 - 1613 - 13 - 4.8 - 25

Obviously there's no way to determine if he would've matched the output of the other three backs if given the chance but with that being said I think he was working with a worse/makeshift offensive line than the other three guys and still had better averages across the board. If you take his averages and give him 200 carries on the year his "projected" numbers would've looked like this:

Attempts Yards TD's Yds/Carry TD Every # Carries
David Wilson 250 - 1250 - 14 - 5.0 - 17

The reason I ran the numbers is because I remember seeing posts about other guys wishing they drafted Martin and threads about wanting to draft a running back next year.

The guy is gonna be good....I'm shocked he actually had 70 carries

B-Red22
01-08-2013, 05:47 PM
Hated the pick when we made it but I have definitely come around and im excited to see what this kid can do next year

Rudyy
01-08-2013, 05:55 PM
I'm David WilsonHi David.

BlueJayC
01-08-2013, 05:58 PM
But you can't compare his 70 carries to their 250 carries. If Wilson had 250 carries, you wouldn't know if he dropped down to 3 or went up to 7. Most likely, he would have dropped.


The more carries you have, the more tired you get... It's a significant margin between 250 carries and 70 carries

You bring up Adrian Peterson, but he hit 6.0 once.... and he fluctuated a lot between 4 and 6. And this is Adrian Peterson we are talking about...

Absolutely true which is why I prefaced his "projected" numbers with: "Obviously there's no way to determine if he would've matched the output of the other three backs if given the chance"

There is no way to say for sure what would have happened but for those looking for another running back or a different pick the numbers show he was at least on pace if not ahead of those other guys but just wasn't given as many opportunities. You can only produce based on the opportunities afforded you.

Ntegrase96
01-08-2013, 07:35 PM
You could make that argument if he had 10-20 carries but anything over 50 is legit......it's not like he had 1 carry for 20 yards......he carried the ball over 70 times and still maintained that average......also assuming that average would drop is just as much as a stretch as saying it would increase. He has the breakaway speed ability to make any play a big play......a homerun threat like Chris Johnson......not many guys are going to catch him from behind so there's just as just as good a chance that his average would get better the more carries he gets.

To put it more into perspective....down the stretch of the season Adrian Peterson's avg jumped up to 6 yards per carry as he started breaking off longer runs towards the end of the year. Averages are simply that.....the yards divided by the number of attempts they could go either way very easily but more times than not are right in line what they're currently at.


Small sample sizes of averages are not good projectors. That's the difference between predicting what David Wilson could have done with more touches versus what other RBs did with more touches. The more carries you have the less impact a big or negative run will have on your average, thus yielding more accurate results.

As far as TDs per Touches go... let's dive into that as well.

The bulk of Doug Martin's carries (60%) came on his own end of the field, while the reverse is true for Wilson (only 40%)... in fact Wilson was rarely trusted with the ball around his own goal line. Within their own redzone the Giants only fed Wilson the ball 9 times out the 71 carries he had.

If you're wondering about redzone carries, both players scored roughly half of their TDs off of redzone carries (as expected), but 21.1% of Wilson's carries came in the redzone while Martin only had 16.6% of his carries in the redzone (They were much more interested in Freeman throwing TDs in the redzone as that's where 20 of Freeman's 27 passing TDs were thrown)

Obviously, the more touches you have in scoring position, the higher your percentage of TDs per rushing attempt is likely to be.

That's not to say what Wilson has been able to do isn't impressive. I think he has a bright future. But I don't think you can take stats that simple and interpret them that way.

Flip Empty
01-08-2013, 07:39 PM
Wilson saw the least usage of any (healthy) running back drafted in the first round since 2004. A sample size as small as that really doesn't tell you anything.

CDN_G-FAN
01-08-2013, 08:08 PM
Wilson has a higher yards per carry average and better touchdown to touch percentage than Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris.....only thing he didn't have that matches those guys was opportunity/touches:

Attempts Yards TD's Yds/Carry TD Every # Carries
David Wilson 71 - 358 - 4 - 5.0 - 17
Trent Richardson 267 - 950 - 11 - 3.6 - 24
Doug Martin 319 - 1454 - 11 - 4.6 - 29
Alfred Morris 335 - 1613 - 13 - 4.8 - 25

Obviously there's no way to determine if he would've matched the output of the other three backs if given the chance but with that being said I think he was working with a worse/makeshift offensive line than the other three guys and still had better averages across the board. If you take his averages and give him 200 carries on the year his "projected" numbers would've looked like this:

Attempts Yards TD's Yds/Carry TD Every # Carries
David Wilson 250 - 1250 - 14 - 5.0 - 17

The reason I ran the numbers is because I remember seeing posts about other guys wishing they drafted Martin and threads about wanting to draft a running back next year.

working with a worse oline but a better QB than these other backs had.

most teams didn't respect our run. they knew if they shut down eli they'd probably win, which is a huge shift from how teams used to play us (take away the run and force eli to win the game).

so some of martin's yards are because teams where keying on the pass compared to the defenses most of those other backs faced.