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View Full Version : Preview of the ATL Offense vs NYG Defense



TrueBlue07
01-02-2012, 11:01 PM
I started to give some thought to what I felt the Giants would need to do if they were going to win on Sunday. Of course the strength of the team for the season has been their offense, so I assumed we would put up at least enough points to win (20-30 range). That led me to the defensive side of the ball, where as we all know our team is drastically different today than it was 1 month ago.

The reputation the Falcons have is that of a team that likes to run, which worried me a bit at first. They are a dome team, and all Giant fans are hoping that plays to our advantage, BUT having a good run game is perfect for the outdoor weather. Then I decided to take a look at the last 8 games the Falcons have played this season and I was severely underwhelmed with their offensive production.

They have had 4 games passing over 300 yards, and 3 games rushing over 100 yards. Yesterdays finale vs TB throws a wrench in to the numbers, the passing yards were way down, and the rushing yards were way up.

Over the 8 games they are avg 130 rushing yards per game, if we take away their last game, they are averaging 113 rushing yards per game.

Over the 8 games they are avg 329.5 passing yards per game, if we take out their last game, they are averaging 351 passing yards per game.

(I also crunched the #s without the last game because it is a statistical anamoly and won't really help us try to get an idea of what type of offense ATL has).

ATL is 2-5 vs teams .500 or better this season and 2-3 in outdoor games

Over the last 3 games (not TB though), ATL is avg 72.6 rushing yards per game, and 339 passing yards per game.

For comparison:

Over the last 8 games the NYG are avg 115 rushing yards allowed per game (which would be about 15th in the league)

Over the last 8 games the NYG are avg 271 passing yards allowed per game (which would be around 31st in the league)

Over the last 3 games the #s are much better, 92 rushing yards per game, 218 passing. I'm putting more stock in the #s over the last three games, not because I am a Giants fan, but because to me they carry more weight than #s from two months ago.

The NYG are 6-4 vs teams with a .500 or better record

What I took away from this research:

ATL is not as dependent/dominate rushing as I had thought

ATL did not face a schedule nearly as difficult as ours & really only has 1 win I am impressed with (over DET)

We, as JR put it, are "battle tested" and I think have proven can hold our own vs the better teams in the league


Here are the links to the stats I used:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/2011.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/atl/2011.htm
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=O PP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatis ticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&season=2011&seasonType=RE G&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Go

Sundown
01-02-2012, 11:06 PM
nice post!!!

TrueBlue07
01-02-2012, 11:11 PM
nice post!!!

Thank you.


I think the ATL offense is a lot like the DAL offense.

2 WR threat
1 TE threat
good RB
1 QB who has put up very good #s but has yet to do it in the playoffs, have a game where afterward you say "that team won the game simply because of their QB"

Has ANY player in the NFL been less deserving of a nickname than 0-2 in the playoffs Matty "Ice" ??

Sundown
01-02-2012, 11:16 PM
nice post!!!

Thank you.


I think the ATL offense is a lot like the DAL offense.*

2 WR threat
1 TE threat
good RB
1 QB who has put up very good #s but has yet to do it in the playoffs, have a game where afterward you say "that team won the game simply because of their QB"

Has ANY player in the NFL been less deserving of a nickname than 0-2 in the playoffs Matty "Ice" ??


I really think we can win this game the same way as yesterday. The d-line will get after Matty

DJloves
01-02-2012, 11:16 PM
Nice post, thanks. I'm more concerned with our pass defense than run defense at this point. I hope Fewell lets the players lose.

One other thing, we need to make sure we wrap our opponents up. Too many missed tackles this year.

If we play exactly how we did against the Cowboys (minus those scary fumbles and actually scoring points off TO) then we should win this one.

--

On the flip end, they have a below average pass D and a top 10 run D, so that should be interesting. I hope Eli lights them up, but also BJ and AB have a good game.

DJloves
01-02-2012, 11:21 PM
Looking at their schedule, they did have a very easy one compared to us. I know we lost to the top 3 NFC teams, but two of those were very close and could have gone either way.

But, if an Atlanta fan did this same post on their forums, you have to think they'd say: our running game is inconsistent, and we don't have a great pass OR run defense. However, we are at our healthiest on D than we have been all year and have looked a lot better the last two weeks.

I seriously hope the defensive play last night wasn't a fluke.

giantsfan420
01-02-2012, 11:23 PM
another huge aspect is that atlanta liked to run 5 and 7 step drop backs to let their wr's get downfield.

against our dline that is practically suicide. if atlanta tries to negate that and throw quick 5 yard slants and stuff, that takes them out of their element as they like to run to set up the big play.

if we can limit the big plays, we'll win. maybe even by a couple scores. first, stop the run. second, try and get an early lead.

that will force atlanta into their deeper qb drop backs and allow our dline to tee off on ryan.

TrueBlue07
01-02-2012, 11:24 PM
Nice post, thanks. I'm more concerned with our pass defense than run defense at this point. I hope Fewell lets the players lose.

One other thing, we need to make sure we wrap our opponents up. Too many missed tackles this year.

If we play exactly how we did against the Cowboys (minus those scary fumbles and actually scoring points off TO) then we should win this one.

--

On the flip end, they have a below average pass D and a top 10 run D, so that should be interesting. I hope Eli lights them up, but also BJ and AB have a good game.

Thank you.


After looking at the numbers, I would agree, our pass defense is where our worries should be. As per usual, I don't see Webster getting torched. He may not be Revis-esque in a lock down mode, but he won't be torched either. It will depend on whether or not the pass rush can rattle "Matty Ice" (I can't say that nickname without rolling my eyes).

Our tackling has been much better lately. When we've gotten to someone we've wrapped them up, for the most part. Grant needs to understand he can no longer lay the wood on anyone, and make a sure tackle rather than bouncing off a guy and letting him get an extra 10-15.

Giantz4Life
01-02-2012, 11:27 PM
In reality it really should be Eli Ice.... although I suppose it does not sound as catchy as Matty Ice.

TrueBlue07
01-02-2012, 11:28 PM
another huge aspect is that atlanta liked to run 5 and 7 step drop backs to let their wr's get downfield.

against our dline that is practically suicide. if atlanta tries to negate that and throw quick 5 yard slants and stuff, that takes them out of their element as they like to run to set up the big play.

if we can limit the big plays, we'll win. maybe even by a couple scores. first, stop the run. second, try and get an early lead.

that will force atlanta into their deeper qb drop backs and allow our dline to tee off on ryan.


ATL is 12th in the NFL in 40+ yard plays, and 13th in 20+ yard plays, so they definitely are a 5-7 step drop team. I really do not see them being able to light up the scoreboard on us if that is their game plan.

Giantz4Life
01-02-2012, 11:30 PM
As per usual, I don't see Webster getting torched. He may not be Revis-esque in a lock down mode, but he won't be torched either.


I agree Webby is solid for the most part and I assume he'll be matched up with Roddy White. I am worried about the underneath quick three step drops to Julio Jones over the middle. Dez absolutely torched Webster last night in the 1st quarter on one play, which should have been a big gain had Romo not overthrown him.

idiotekniQues
01-02-2012, 11:30 PM
that was some seriously commendable research brother

TrueBlue07
01-02-2012, 11:33 PM
As per usual, I don't see Webster getting torched. He may not be Revis-esque in a lock down mode, but he won't be torched either.


I agree Webby is solid for the most part and I assume he'll be matched up with Roddy White. I am worried about the underneath quick three step drops to Julio Jones over the middle. Dez absolutely torched Webster last night in the 1st quarter on one play, which should have been a big gain had Romo not overthrown him.


That was in press-man coverage on the first series of the game, 3rd and 4 I believe...you're right, that was 6 if Romo hits him. It's a big gamble type play though. Fewell is trusting Webster will lock him up for 2 seconds and throw off the timing, which didn't really happen on that play. Dez is a huge WR 6'2 218lbs, White is 6'0 211lbs so he is slightly smaller.

Giantz4Life
01-02-2012, 11:45 PM
As per usual, I don't see Webster getting torched. He may not be Revis-esque in a lock down mode, but he won't be torched either.


I agree Webby is solid for the most part and I assume he'll be matched up with Roddy White. I am worried about the underneath quick three step drops to Julio Jones over the middle. Dez absolutely torched Webster last night in the 1st quarter on one play, which should have been a big gain had Romo not overthrown him.


That was in press-man coverage on the first series of the game, 3rd and 4 I believe...you're right, that was 6 if Romo hits him. It's a big gamble type play though. Fewell is trusting Webster will lock him up for 2 seconds and throw off the timing, which didn't really happen on that play. Dez is a huge WR 6'2 218lbs, White is 6'0 211lbs so he is slightly smaller.


Yes you're correct about the press-man. That is a tough assignment for any CB with Bryant's size. Webby's been really solid this year and made some really clutch plays. I like his matchup versus Roddy White more because as you stated White is not as physically imposing or strong as Dez. The real question is Aaron Ross versus Julio Jones. This could present an issue so I think we may need to double Jones at certain times.

Nice write-up by the way in your original post.

TrueBlue07
01-02-2012, 11:53 PM
you're right, Julio Jones is huge. 6'3 220. He's actually bigger than both Dez & White. It should be interesting to see which guy Webster lines up against most of the time. I think ATL's offense may actually be a little more dynamic than DAL's. We already knew going in to the playoffs we would live and die with our pass rush, but seeing the imposing sizes of the ATL WRs reinforces that.

Thanks for the props on the post too.

Falcon2k
01-02-2012, 11:57 PM
I can tell you guys havent really watched alot of Falcon games so let me inform you. We arent really a deep throw team dont let the big play stats fool you alothough we will throw it deep a few times, alot of those big plays came from YAC on simple crossing routes. Were balanced in passing and running but our last few games took a hit in rushing yards due to the fact Michael Turner was fighting a groin injury but he's healthy now. I see us having a pretty good game you guys pass rush is awesome but its a down fall to that because were really really good with the quick throw and we run the draw plays well.

TrueBlue07
01-03-2012, 12:12 AM
I can tell you guys havent really watched alot of Falcon games so let me inform you. We arent really a deep throw team dont let the big play stats fool you alothough we will throw it deep a few times, alot of those big plays came from YAC on simple crossing routes. Were balanced in passing and running but our last few games took a hit in rushing yards due to the fact Michael Turner was fighting a groin injury but he's healthy now. I see us having a pretty good game you guys pass rush is awesome but its a down fall to that because were really really good with the quick throw and we run the draw plays well.

You are right, I have not seen much of ATL this season. But the WRs YAC stats would disagree with what you're saying. Jones is 24th, and White is 34th in the NFL with only about 1/3rd and 1/4th of their total yards being after the catch.

Tbh, I am not concerned with ATL's draw plays. The Cowboys made the shot gun draw play popular in the NFL, they are great at it, and run it often. That isn't something new to us.


In doing some research on ATLs offense I was impressed to see how good their 1-2 WR group is, and they could definitely be a problem if our pass rush doesn't rattle Ryan.

Falcon2k
01-03-2012, 12:24 AM
Oh yea thats what scares me the most you guys pass rush. I think will be able to do well against it with our quick throws to Julio and Tony. The weather isnt really a big concern considering we run the ball very well. Im really just hoping for a great game because the last few post seasons have been hell but it seems we have everything figured out now!

TrueBlue07
01-03-2012, 12:30 AM
Oh yea thats what scares me the most you guys pass rush. I think will be able to do well against it with our quick throws to Julio and Tony. The weather isnt really a big concern considering we run the ball very well. Im really just hoping for a great game because the last few post seasons have been hell but it seems we have everything figured out now!

This is a legit Q, I am not asking because I already have my own answer, but do you really think the offense won't be affected by playing outdoors vs in a dome? History shows us dome teams are not as successful in the cold. The only two possible cold outdoor games I see on the ATL schedule were losses to Chi & Seattle. What are your thoughts?

Falcon2k
01-03-2012, 12:39 AM
I mean it depends, if its snowing, raining etc + the cold then yes it will have its affects but just playing in the cold isnt really going to have much off a affect considering their running around. The lost to Chicago wasnt because of the weather we didnt have a identity our Offense didnt score that game and we didnt lose to Seattle.

TrueBlue07
01-03-2012, 12:43 AM
the weather, as of now, does not call for rain, or snow. Not even "that" cold. Maybe about 40-45 degrees.

I apologize for the Seattle stat, you are correct.

Looking at this thread I found on another forum, Ryan has the biggest difference in passer rating away from home. He is from PA, so maybe it is a matter of him becoming more comfortable at home than anything else since it's not as if he grew up in a warm weather state like CA, or Texas.

http://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=427443

TrueBlue07
01-03-2012, 01:39 PM
where did my Falcon fan friend go?!

MikeIsaGiant
01-03-2012, 02:03 PM
Post of 2012, great post man. You put a lot of thought into it!

TrueBlue07
01-03-2012, 02:25 PM
Post of 2012, great post man. You put a lot of thought into it!


Thank you, much appreciated!

Falcon2k
01-03-2012, 05:58 PM
Work, but hey I cant say much about that other then I hopefully he overcomes it. He hasnt been terrible away just not as good as he is at home.

TrueBlue07
01-03-2012, 07:29 PM
it's still VERY early in the week, but the forecast for Sunday has changed. 40% chance of precipitation. As of now, that's rain, if the temp also dips that rain will become snow


http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USNJ0128?dayNum=5