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View Full Version : The Patriots are Favored to Win the Super Bowl but Should They Be?



Shaner021
01-24-2012, 09:42 PM
The Vegas line opened at -3.5 favoring the Patriots, but the Giants already beat the Patriots this season. Why are they favored? I broke some of it down if you'd like to check it out here:

http://sports-kings.com/?p=8576


Thanks!

Shane
Twitter: @Shaner021
(Not a spambot)!

JMGGIANTS
01-24-2012, 09:43 PM
Because they are the Patriots. Their value seems to always be inflated because of the Brady factor.

MikeIsaGiant
01-24-2012, 09:44 PM
All I hear from patriots fans are "WE'RE FAVORED BY 3 WE'RE BETTER"

Yeah, theyre dumb.

THE_New_York_Giants
01-24-2012, 09:44 PM
The Vegas line opened at -3.5 favoring the Patriots, but the Giants already beat the Patriots this season. Why are they favored? I broke some of it down if you'd like to check it out here:

http://sports-kings.com/?p=8576


Thanks!

Shane
Twitter: @Shaner021
(Not a spambot)!
I disagree with the secondary and receiver paragraphs. Both of those are advantage Giants. The QB's are even

Voldamort
01-24-2012, 09:45 PM
ok with this

pj18
01-24-2012, 09:50 PM
Our 7 losses compared to their 3 losses.

guardplay320
01-24-2012, 09:53 PM
The Vegas line opened at -3.5 favoring the Patriots, but the Giants already beat the Patriots this season. Why are they favored? I broke some of it down if you'd like to check it out here:

http://sports-kings.com/?p=8576


Thanks!

Shane
Twitter: @Shaner021
(Not a spambot)!
I disagree with the secondary and receiver paragraphs. Both of those are advantage Giants. The QB's are even

I am fine with the WR paragraph as their TE's make up the difference for our distinct advantage at WR. Our secondary has a clear edge. Throw out the regular season stats which are nonsense at this point. Brady still has the advantage over Eli. Brady versus our defense vs Eli against their defense makes it tighter though.

byron
01-24-2012, 09:55 PM
I don't care if they are favored by a 100 they need to lose!!! its going to be a long two weeks!!</P>


Go Giants !!</P>

Shaner021
01-24-2012, 10:01 PM
I knew Giants fans would give immediate feedback! I do think the Giants have better WRs but obviously you have to include Gronk & Hernandez with the Patriots. I tried to analyze it statistically so there is a method to the madness, even though we all know stats are thrown out the door at kickoff. I think the Giants biggest advantage in the pass rush may be all you need. Sure the Pats didnt have Gronk & Hernandez in 07 but Eli has 4 more years of experience now. Guess its why they play the game lol!

GiantinCt
01-24-2012, 10:06 PM
The Pats are favored to win? Oh hell, we might as well give up now, thats like playing an undefeated team team and expecting to win.
Oh, wait....!!!!

swimeasy
01-24-2012, 10:07 PM
I knew Giants fans would give immediate feedback! I do think the Giants have better WRs but obviously you have to include Gronk &amp; Hernandez with the Patriots. I tried to analyze it statistically so there is a method to the madness, even though we all know stats are thrown out the door at kickoff. I think the Giants biggest advantage in the pass rush may be all you need. Sure the Pats didnt have Gronk &amp; Hernandez in 07 but Eli has 4 more years of experience now. Guess its why they play the game lol!

Appreciate your doing this analysis. One intangible is that Giants do better as underdogs- they thrive on it so Pats being favored is positive and again invokes shades of 2007.

Advantage: Giants

THE_New_York_Giants
01-24-2012, 10:10 PM
I knew Giants fans would give immediate feedback! I do think the Giants have better WRs but obviously you have to include Gronk & Hernandez with the Patriots. I tried to analyze it statistically so there is a method to the madness, even though we all know stats are thrown out the door at kickoff. I think the Giants biggest advantage in the pass rush may be all you need. Sure the Pats didnt have Gronk & Hernandez in 07 but Eli has 4 more years of experience now. Guess its why they play the game lol!

Appreciate your doing this analysis. One intangible is that Giants do better as underdogs- they thrive on it so Pats being favored is positive and again invokes shades of 2007.

Advantage: Giants

Nicks/Manningham/Cruz/Ballard/Hynoski > Gronk/Hernandez/Branch/Ochocinco... Just saying

CDN_G-FAN
01-24-2012, 10:12 PM
Our 7 losses compared to their 3 losses.


this.

if we were 1st seed with 13 regular season wins and vegas put us as underdogs, this place would BLOW UP.

doesn't really matter, the spread will thin out by the end of the week.

Sarcasman
01-24-2012, 10:14 PM
The Vegas line opened at -3.5 favoring the Patriots, but the Giants already beat the Patriots this season. Why are they favored? I broke some of it down if you'd like to check it out here:

http://sports-kings.com/?p=8576


Thanks!

Shane
Twitter: @Shaner021
(Not a spambot)!


They should be favored. They were four games better than the Giants in the regular season.

Shaner021
01-24-2012, 10:16 PM
I hear what you are saying about your receiving corps, but I tried to use the stats to back up my theory.

FYI, before I started checking stats I though the Giants had the advantage in both RBs and receiving.

Everyone knows an analysis for football games is garbage anyway! But thanks for reading it!

Delicreep
01-24-2012, 10:25 PM
The only thing this means is that the books "believe" that bettors are slightly more likely to pick the Pats than the Gints, at least initially.

And by believe, I mean it is a rock solid fact based on years of experience and data.

VegasGmen
01-24-2012, 10:26 PM
Most people and analysts believe the line is way off, that the Giants should be favored. I originally had a line of Giants -2.5 when the SF game ended. Cowherd thought the line should be Giants -6.5. According to the oddsmakers out here the line is Pats -3 due mainly to Belicheat having 2 weeks to prepare for this game and being a 13 win team. No team with 9 regular season wins(Giants) has ever won the SB. To me their reasoning is flawed and the line is way off. I'm taking Giants now before the "sharps" bet the line down to 1. Lot of public money will come in on Pats though since they are 1 of the most bet teams in the NFL with Dallas and Steelers. </P>

swimeasy
01-24-2012, 10:37 PM
I knew Giants fans would give immediate feedback! I do think the Giants have better WRs but obviously you have to include Gronk &amp; Hernandez with the Patriots. I tried to analyze it statistically so there is a method to the madness, even though we all know stats are thrown out the door at kickoff. I think the Giants biggest advantage in the pass rush may be all you need. Sure the Pats didnt have Gronk &amp; Hernandez in 07 but Eli has 4 more years of experience now. Guess its why they play the game lol!

Appreciate your doing this analysis. One intangible is that Giants do better as underdogs- they thrive on it so Pats being favored is positive and again invokes shades of 2007.

Advantage: Giants

Nicks/Manningham/Cruz/Ballard/Hynoski &gt; Gronk/Hernandez/Branch/Ochocinco... Just saying

Yep, I agree totally but I'm not about to mess with any bad karma gods. Mantra: They're underdogs and will have to again prove they belong in the SB. [;)]

Shaner021
01-25-2012, 08:02 AM
Thanks for the feedback Giants fans! Guess it will be interesting to see which storyline plays out on SuperBowl Sunday!

egyptian420
01-25-2012, 08:42 AM
Our 7 losses compared to their 3 losses.

Yup.....I honestly think even if we had a better record with maybe 1 or 2 more wins than them they'd still be the favorite just because of Brady....that's just how it is

I love it though, everyone knows this team plays much better as underdogs, I would actually be kind of worried if we were favored to win this game

freeoscar
01-25-2012, 08:58 AM
why are you surprised? Haven't you heard that the giants were gifted the game from the niners? And they only won the green bay game because the packers were too rested & rusty? And that Atlanta, despite all the pre-game talk about matty ice, white, Jones and the running game are a horrible team?. Clearly the giants did nothing to earn their place in the SB. The patriots, however, beat the mighty 8-8 Tebow, and totally outplayed the fearsome lee Evans led ravens.
;)

stormblue
01-25-2012, 09:32 AM
the vegas line represents a gambling middling posture based on public opinion.
and the SB is an international event so they have to factor in the world wide Brady brand.

it has very little to do with the actual outcome.

1/4 of the games the Vegas favorite actually lost.

1/3 of the time the Vegas favorite doesn't even cover the spread.

harrycarson
01-25-2012, 09:42 AM
I think the line should be even in this one. Honestly I cannot remember a SB where it was not clear who was the dominant team. In this one however I cannot see how the Pats are going to win unless we turn the ball over. Our offense in a neutral dome and our defensive line in a dome=disaster for the Pats...Honestly, that whimpy 3.5 point spread really for the 13-3 Pats against the 9-7 Giants just indicates the obvious......

bandwgn86
01-25-2012, 09:50 AM
The Vegas line opened at -3.5 favoring the Patriots, but the Giants already beat the Patriots this season. Why are they favored? I broke some of it down if you'd like to check it out here:

http://sports-kings.com/?p=8576


Thanks!

Shane
Twitter: @Shaner021
(Not a spambot)!NFLisRigged i tell yah

miked1958
01-25-2012, 09:59 AM
I think this topic was addressed in another thread. It was brought out that if we were the 13-3 first seed and were inserted as underdogs to a 4th seed 9-7 we all as Fans would be really upset and up in arms.</P>


So they earned the distinction of that Title. Let them have it. We work better in the underdog roll anyway</P>

Shaner021
01-25-2012, 05:01 PM
Here's what Patriot fans think:

http://www.patriotsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=63292&page=3

JJC7301
01-25-2012, 05:08 PM
They were 13-3 and we were 9-7 -- yes, they should be favored, but I honestly would not bet against the Giants in this game.

jhamburg
01-25-2012, 05:12 PM
Because they are 13-3 and the Brady/Belichick mystique.

/thread