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Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 07:47 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game. After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game. I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed. Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??

Razur
01-27-2012, 07:56 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game.* After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game.* I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed.* Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??


Don't know anything about Vegas , but a "fixed" game implies that Giants would somehow throw the game or that possibly the officiating would have been paid off...either is unlikely...the Giants organization is one of the most respected in NFL,and with the recent outcry from the sports media questioning recent contraversial calls and the whole workd watching...doesn't seem possible to make such blatantly wrong calls without enormous consequences to the League.

NYGRealityCheck
01-27-2012, 08:01 PM
Yea it's that there's still a bunch of people that are willing to lose money like jack rabbits. $5 million on the Patriots LMAO!

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 08:03 PM
After seeing that ref's call in the Green Bay game, nothing would surprise me anymore!

bflo23
01-27-2012, 08:05 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game. After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game. I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed. Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??


Are you kidding? NFL players are making millions of dollars. They aren't throwing the game. If a QB is making 5-10 million per year, how much would it take for him to "throw" the most important game in his career SUPER BOWL? You think someone is gonna throw him $50 million and Brady/Eli will ruin their legacy...... Vegas comes up with lines and futures by predictors with calculators. They said 30-1 odds for Giants to win the Super Bowl when the Giants got in the playoffs. Keep on underestimating the Giants.

And I wasn't surprised at all that the Giants were 3 point underdogs.... Lets not forget the Giants opened 8.5 point underdogs vs the Packers.

Razur
01-27-2012, 08:06 PM
After seeing that ref's call in the Green Bay game, nothing would surprise me anymore!


Agreed...my guess though...flat out hatred of the Giants would be more a motive then Vegas influencing bad calls.

Redeyejedi
01-27-2012, 08:15 PM
I do find it odd considering the Giants played without Bradshaw and Nicks and still beat the Pats in Foxboro

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 08:22 PM
After seeing that ref's call in the Green Bay game, nothing would surprise me anymore!


Agreed...my guess though...flat out hatred of the Giants would be more a motive then Vegas influencing bad calls.

It does seem like there is a lot of hatred towards the Giants in the
media. I don't understand that. The Giants are one of the more storied
and classy organizations in the league not to mention were owned by W.
Mara who had the utmost respect around the league. Don't get the hate.
Anyway, I can't wait for the game. Hope the Giants take it to em'!!

Razur
01-27-2012, 08:24 PM
After seeing that ref's call in the Green Bay game, nothing would surprise me anymore!


Agreed...my guess though...flat out hatred of the Giants would be more a motive then Vegas influencing bad calls.

It does seem like there is a lot of hatred towards the Giants in the
media.* I don't understand that.* The Giants are one of the more storied
and classy organizations in the league not to mention were owned by W.
Mara who had the utmost respect around the league.* Don't get the hate.*
Anyway, I can't wait for the game.* Hope the Giants take it to em'!!


RIGHT ON...GO GIANTS GO BLUE!!!

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 08:26 PM
<font color="#0000FF">

I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game. After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game. I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed. Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??


Are you kidding? NFL players are making millions of dollars. They aren't throwing the game. If a QB is making 5-10 million per year, how much would it take for him to "throw" the most important game in his career SUPER BOWL? You think someone is gonna throw him $50 million and Brady/Eli will ruin their legacy...... Vegas comes up with lines and futures by predictors with calculators. They said 30-1 odds for Giants to win the Super Bowl when the Giants got in the playoffs. Keep on underestimating the Giants. </font><font color="#0000FF">And I wasn't surprised at all that the Giants were 3 point underdogs.... Lets not forget the Giants opened 8.5 point underdogs vs the Packers.
</font>

<font color="#000000">Not every player is making millions of dollars
first of all. Second, the refs seem to have a lot of questionable calls
lately. All I heard on the radio this morning was that Vegas is not
stupid and there is a reason the Giants were listed as underdogs and it
all has to do with them making money. That is all I was asking about.</font>

Connor
01-27-2012, 08:32 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game.* After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game.* I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed.* Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??


Are you kidding? NFL players are making millions of dollars. They aren't throwing the game. If a QB is making 5-10 million per year, how much would it take for him to "throw" the most important game in his career SUPER BOWL? You think someone is gonna throw him $50 million and Brady/Eli will ruin their legacy...... Vegas comes up with lines and futures by predictors with calculators. They said 30-1 odds for Giants to win the Super Bowl when the Giants got in the playoffs. Keep on underestimating the Giants.

And I wasn't surprised at all that the Giants were 3 point underdogs.... Lets not forget the Giants opened 8.5 point underdogs vs the Packers.



Mike Vick killed dogs, ray Lewis killed a man, how many cheat on their wives and you are telling me "no way" they shave points? Nothing would surprise me

Connor
01-27-2012, 08:32 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game.* After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game.* I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed.* Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??


Are you kidding? NFL players are making millions of dollars. They aren't throwing the game. If a QB is making 5-10 million per year, how much would it take for him to "throw" the most important game in his career SUPER BOWL? You think someone is gonna throw him $50 million and Brady/Eli will ruin their legacy...... Vegas comes up with lines and futures by predictors with calculators. They said 30-1 odds for Giants to win the Super Bowl when the Giants got in the playoffs. Keep on underestimating the Giants.

And I wasn't surprised at all that the Giants were 3 point underdogs.... Lets not forget the Giants opened 8.5 point underdogs vs the Packers.



Mike Vick killed dogs, ray Lewis killed a man, how many cheat on their wives and you are telling me "no way" they shave points? Nothing would surprise me

BlueJayC
01-27-2012, 08:37 PM
<FONT color=#ff0000 size=4>The amount of money numerous sportsbooks in Vegas and worldwide would lose on a Giants W has me more concerned than any player on the Pats or gameplan Bill could put in place</FONT>......just looking at the game from a pure football perspective this line is way off and to cover those potential lossessportsbooks wouldnormally shift the line heavy in the Giants favor.....I was thinking like Giants -7 to deter bettors from taking the Giants and limit their potential losses....but instead they have the Pats as faves......so they're giving points to a team that they already completely exposed to with a straight up W?!?!?!?</P>


Something stinks......it could be Vegas figuring that all the calls have and will continue to go against the Giants.....it could just be me being paranoid......but the Giants beat the Falcons, Pack and Niners DESPITE the refs.....looks like Vegas is rolling the dice that they won't beat two opponents again or they know something we don't......</P>


Again this line scares more than anything.</P>

Voldamort
01-27-2012, 08:37 PM
Vegas also had the packers+7 and 49ers+3 and they lost?

bflo23
01-27-2012, 08:46 PM
<font color="#000000">Not every player is making millions of dollars
first of all. Second, the refs seem to have a lot of questionable calls
lately. All I heard on the radio this morning was that Vegas is not
stupid and there is a reason the Giants were listed as underdogs and it
all has to do with them making money. That is all I was asking about.</font>


No but the player that can control the outcome of the game is the QB. One wide receiver, one running back, one lineman, one corner, etc. can't throw the game. A baseball pitcher? Yes. A QB? Yes.

Refs? I do think refs in all sports try to get certain teams in because they believe it means more viewers and more money for NFL. In all seriousness, these refs preferred to see the Packers vs Patriots because they believed it would mean more national viewers, more money, "storyline", etc. The last thing the NFL wants to see is Lions vs Texans in SB. And Vegas is stupid..... 80-1 odds for the Giants at one point in the season..... Do you understand the hit that Vegas would take if the Giants won this game? Some Giant fan who bet just a $100 would get $8,000.

Was Vegas stupid when they had the St. Louis Cardinals future bet at 999-1 and they won the WS? I guess they aren't as smart as you think.

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 08:50 PM
I don't know man. The receiver for the Ravens drops that TD pass, the kicker misses a chip shot. I think anyone can be bought. I would just love to know how Vegas seems to be right on all the time with their numbers.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 08:55 PM
Was the entire Ravens team trying to throw the game or do you believe it was just Cundiff and Lee Evans who waited all that time to mess up at the end of the game?

Do you think Eli Manning is going to throw this game? How much do you think Eli was paid to throw the game? You see how ridiculous it is to believe such things.

BlueJayC
01-27-2012, 08:57 PM
Vegas also had the packers+7 and 49ers+3 and they lost?</P>


Yeah but those were the #1 and #2 seeds andVegas wasn't asexposed to those teams as they are to the Giants for a few reasons......</P>


The Giants odds to win the SB dropped something like anywhere from 80-100 to 1 when theyhit 6-6.......NY bettors laid the money.......</P>


Both those teams also beat the Giants during the regular season and were playing the Giants at home in the playoffs (home team automatically gets -3)....so the Niner game was really even and the Packer game was -6.......thosespeadsseem accurate seeing as the regular season Niner game came down to the last playin SFand the Pack beat the Giants in NY.......now you look at the Giants who while banged up beat the Pats away and this spread just looks fishy.......if anything as a straight up oddsmaker (which I'm not) I'm putting the Giants at -3.5.......if I was looking to cover a loss on a Giants SB pick I'm putting the Giants at -7.5........becuase oddsmakers love t5o screw you with those .5 points.</P>


I'm sure we're reading into it way to much but my dark side doesn't like it.</P>

BlueJayC
01-27-2012, 09:01 PM
I don't know man. The receiver for the Ravens drops that TD pass, the kicker misses a chip shot. I think anyone can be bought. I would just love to know how Vegas seems to be right on all the time with their numbers.
</P>


It's disgusting how right they are.....one of my buddies is a BIG TIME gambler and he has this spreadsheet for NCAA basketball that you plug about a million different stats into and it spits out projectedspreads that are usually dead on with Vegas lines......ifhe find a spread in the formula that doesn't fit the Vegas line that's the game he takes.....makes a living off it. But also spends weeks staring at stats......it's all in the numbers.......sure they got something for NFL ball like that.</P>

bflo23
01-27-2012, 09:06 PM
It isn't "fishy" where there is some conspiracy that the Giants are going to throw the game because the money is going on the Giants. Eli would never do such a thing. Ridiculous to think that as the other poster was thinking the Ravens player Evans dropped the ball on purpose and Cundiff missed the kick.

The problem is the oddsmakers are simply getting it wrong time and time again. I am not expecting vegas to make the Giants as favorites in Lambeau but I thought it was ridiculous when 8.5 points underdog opened up. They are underestimating the Giants and even the public are jumping on the Giants. You got fans just jumping on them but just regular bettors as well.

Vegas was rooting big time against the Giants in the 49ers game.... They will be rooting big time against the Giants again. Hopefully, the Giants make Vegas lose big money. Keep on hating and underestimating the Giants just like the way we like it.

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 09:11 PM
Was the entire Ravens team trying to throw the game or do you believe it was just Cundiff and Lee Evans who waited all that time to mess up at the end of the game?

Do you think Eli Manning is going to throw this game? How much do you think Eli was paid to throw the game? You see how ridiculous it is to believe such things.


I didn't say I believe it or that it is true. You said the only person that can throw a game is a QB. I disagree. I am not saying it happens. Read my original post. It has more to do with Vegas setting the line on this game and it doesn't make sense as to why the Giants are underdogs. I believe they are the better team.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 09:13 PM
It's disgusting how right they are.....one of my buddies is a BIG TIME gambler and he has this spreadsheet for NCAA basketball that you plug about a million different stats into and it spits out projectedspreads that are usually dead on with Vegas lines......ifhe find a spread in the formula that doesn't fit the Vegas line that's the game he takes.....makes a living off it. But also spends weeks staring at stats......it's all in the numbers.......sure they got something for NFL ball like that.</p>

Everybody thinks that they can beat the system. Nobody can beat the system that has juice. For every one person making a living, there are a thousand other losers that have gambling problems. And that one person can have one good year or a couple years but they will always lose in the long run simply based on mathematics. The only person that makes money is Vegas in the long run and the illegal bookies...... It is like someone saying they found a system to beat blackjack or roulette. Even the professional poker players got through long stretches where they losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. It isn't happening in cards or sports.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 09:18 PM
I didn't say I believe it or that it is true. You said the only person that can throw a game is a QB. I disagree. I am not saying it happens. Read my original post. It has more to do with Vegas setting the line on this game and it doesn't make sense as to why the Giants are underdogs. I believe they are the better team.


You really think that someone would go up to Lee Evans and say "I am going to pay you $5 million and I want you to throw the game"?.... A player who barely gets an action in the game. If someone wanted to throw a game, he would go to the star basketball player, boxer, QB, goalie, starting pitcher, tennis player DEFINITELY and that happened recently......Not a kicker or a #3 or #4 WR. The player has to have majority control of the outcome of the game.

BlueJayC
01-27-2012, 09:22 PM
It's disgusting how right they are.....one of my buddies is a BIG TIME gambler and he has this spreadsheet for NCAA basketball that you plug about a million different stats into and it spits out projectedspreads that are usually dead on with Vegas lines......ifhe find a spread in the formula that doesn't fit the Vegas line that's the game he takes.....makes a living off it. But also spends weeks staring at stats......it's all in the numbers.......sure they got something for NFL ball like that.</P>




Everybody thinks that they can beat the system. Nobody can beat the system that has juice. For every one person making a living, there are a thousand other losers that have gambling problems. And that one person can have one good year or a couple years but they will always lose in the long run simply based on mathematics. The only person that makes money is Vegas in the long run and the illegal bookies...... It is like someone saying they found a system to beat blackjack or roulette. Even the professional poker players got through long stretches where they losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. It isn't happening in cards or sports.
</P>


I agree that's why I stay away otherwise there'd be 1001 losers.....I just get a kick out of the numbers, formulas and whatnot......it's amazing howVegas throws lines out there (more so for basketball) and some college kid shooting a meaningless free throw with 2 seconds on the clock in a 20 point game can sway the financial fortunes of the masses......it's disturbing yet fascinating.</P>


As far as buying players goes....I highly doubt it happens in the NFL but as the devil's advocate it's easy for one player to sway an entire football game (Cundiff, Williams). Fumble here....missed kick there.....again I doubt it happens but I'm not certain about anything......refs are another story......they've been terrible with the Giants throughout the playoffs.</P>

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 09:25 PM
BlueJayC (../members/BlueJayC.aspx)
Who is your buddy takin in this game?

CDN_G-FAN
01-27-2012, 09:26 PM
nothing but an amateur here, but spreads are part prediction part marking.

setting spreads that will leave money in the hands of the oddsmakers, while encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pocket of oddsmakers.

the season's results simply won't be discounted to the point where a 13 win team would be considered an underdog to a 9 win team, regardless of how strong the 9 win team has looked.

put it this way, if we were the 13 win team and the 1st seed in our conference, and the Pats finally got their act together at the end of the season and were playing against us in the superbowl, i'd be pretty pissed if we were underdogs to the pats.

miked1958
01-27-2012, 09:28 PM
I do find it odd considering the Giants played without Bradshaw and Nicks and still beat the Pats in Foxboro
You are right. I say we pound them

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 09:37 PM
nothing but an amateur here, but spreads are part prediction part marking.

setting spreads that will leave money in the hands of the oddsmakers, while encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pocket of oddsmakers.

the season's results simply won't be discounted to the point where a 13 win team would be considered an underdog to a 9 win team, regardless of how strong the 9 win team has looked.

put it this way, if we were the 13 win team and the 1st seed in our conference, and the Pats finally got their act together at the end of the season and were playing against us in the superbowl, i'd be pretty pissed if we were underdogs to the pats.

That's my point. They are encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pockets of the oddsmakers. Everyone has been betting the Giants because they believe they are the better team and they are getting points. How is that going to make them money. The spread would have to move next week so that money starts coming in on the Pats and even everything out. From what I understand, Vegas wants the money pretty even, then they make their money on the VIG. Whatever that is.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 09:37 PM
I would be more worried about the refs than the players. We all remember Tim Donaghy who had games on the over/under and then he would constantly blow fouls so the players go the line for free throws. That was shady. And we saw Nikolay Davydenko (http://tennis.fanhouse.com/players/atp/nikolay-davydenko/168141) in tennis scandal as he won 1st set, then they saw a huge amount of bets go against him and then Davydenko lost. We know about the Russian mob's power. I am sure it still exists but more in one on one sports where the player has all the control to lose. I do believe it is also around college sports where the kids don't have money compared to professional athlete who is making millions per year..... A star college ball player may throw a game because it is just one game. A star professional athlete is getting millions so far less likely to afford them.

BlueJayC
01-27-2012, 09:38 PM
BlueJayC (../members/BlueJayC.aspx)
Who is your buddy takin in this game?
</P>


He doesn't touch the pro games (NBA or NFL).....says they have "eratic patterns"....sticks to college ball but I was bs'ing with him and he was the one who was explaining to me why the line objectively seems odd.....said he'd take the Giants if they were giving3 but the fact that they're getting 3 he's staying away.....warped thinking IMO but that's what scares me......</P>


I hope this is one of those games Vegas gets wayyyyyyyy wrong in the Giants favor....</P>

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 09:41 PM
BlueJayC (../members/BlueJayC.aspx)
Who is your buddy takin in this game?
</p>


He doesn't touch the pro games (NBA or NFL).....says they have "eratic patterns"....sticks to college ball but I was bs'ing with him and he was the one who was explaining to me why the line objectively seems odd.....said he'd take the Giants if they were giving3 but the fact that they're getting 3 he's staying away.....warped thinking IMO but that's what scares me......</p>


I hope this is one of those games Vegas gets wayyyyyyyy wrong in the Giants favor....</p>

Yeah, seems like people that are familiar with betting are saying something is off with this spread. I hope you are right and they are way wrong. I would love for a nice relaxing blowout! 35-17 sounds nice. lol.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 09:46 PM
That's my point. They are encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pockets of the oddsmakers. Everyone has been betting the Giants because they believe they are the better team and they are getting points. How is that going to make them money. The spread would have to move next week so that money starts coming in on the Pats and even everything out. From what I understand, Vegas wants the money pretty even, then they make their money on the VIG. Whatever that is.


The line predictors are getting it wrong. They are suppose to try to get it 50/50 but vegas took a hit in every single round of the playoffs. When line vs Packers opens at 8.5 and drops so much, Vegas are hating it when the Giants win. They are wishing they Giants lost so they would profit more. If you read the article, it says VEGAS WAS HOPING THE GIANTS LOST TO 49ers. Vegas is scared because they made the Giants 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl and they don't want to pay that out. That is insane odds that they got wrong. And Eli isn't a crook and trying to throw the Super Bowl.

Do you really believe the Patriots are gonna get a lot of bets on them especially considering Gronk's high ankle sprain? If anything, I can see more people take the Giants. I think the line predictors wish they could have a do over and knew how serious his injury was before they made the Giants 3 point underdogs.

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 10:00 PM
That's my point. They are encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pockets of the oddsmakers. Everyone has been betting the Giants because they believe they are the better team and they are getting points. How is that going to make them money. The spread would have to move next week so that money starts coming in on the Pats and even everything out. From what I understand, Vegas wants the money pretty even, then they make their money on the VIG. Whatever that is.


The line predictors are getting it wrong. They are suppose to try to get it 50/50 but vegas took a hit in every single round of the playoffs. When line vs Packers opens at 8.5 and drops so much, Vegas are hating it when the Giants win. They are wishing they Giants lost so they would profit more. If you read the article, it says VEGAS WAS HOPING THE GIANTS LOST TO 49ers. Vegas is scared because they made the Giants 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl and they don't want to pay that out. That is insane odds that they got wrong. And Eli isn't a crook and trying to throw the Super Bowl.

Do you really believe the Patriots are gonna get a lot of bets on them especially considering Gronk's high ankle sprain? If anything, I can see more people take the Giants. I think the line predictors wish they could have a do over and knew how serious his injury was before they made the Giants 3 point underdogs.


How could they not have known his injury was serious? You could see when it happened it was serious. How he didn't break that thing is a miracle. So your saying Vegas is scared cuz they made the Giants 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl thats why they set the spread as Giants 3point underdogs? I fail to see how that makes money back for them. Please explain.

NJGIANTinNC
01-27-2012, 10:10 PM
Vegas will be fine.
Considering they wrote the script anyway

bflo23
01-27-2012, 10:17 PM
How could they not have known his injury was serious? You could see when it happened it was serious. How he didn't break that thing is a miracle. So your saying Vegas is scared cuz they made the Giants 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl thats why they set the spread as Giants 3point underdogs? I fail to see how that makes money back for them. Please explain.


I knew it was serious but remember the line is picked for what the public is suppose to pick at 50/50. The predictors believed that the bettors are still on the Patriots hype. They happened to be wrong because the line dropped. If you listen to people, lots of people said "He will be ok because he came back in the game." Players come back from sprains.... The big news is that it is a high ankle sprain which is very serious. That is the news that bettors and predictors want to know.

"So your saying Vegas is scared cuz they made the Giants 80-1 odds to win
the Super Bowl thats why they set the spread as Giants 3point
underdogs?"..... I have to believe that Vegas receives far more line spread betting than futures. They don't really effect each other. I am not sure what you expected from the line. Did you expect Giants as the 7 point favorites? If they made it even (which is what I would put it at WITH HEALTHY GRONK... even though I think Giants win somewhat big), maybe they get even 50/50 bettors.... If the Giants were favored at -3 and they got even (50/50 bettors) and Giants won by 10 points, Vegas is still going to lose big from their futures. Remember that these line predictors are trying to pick what would get them close to even bets from the public...... The public aren't always right either.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 10:19 PM
Vegas will be fine.
Considering they wrote the script anyway

In the long run, Vegas will always be the winners. They are like bookies and they always make money. They can take a hit from Giants and be fine.... just like they were when the St. Louis Cardinals made that amazing run into the playoffs and won the WS..... 999/1 odds to win WS.

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 10:22 PM
so whats VIG mean?

bflo23
01-27-2012, 10:25 PM
juice.... It is why nobody can ever beat vegas in long run. The system is based so that vegas always makes money in the long run. It is how bookies always are the winners.

rainierjef
01-27-2012, 10:28 PM
After seeing that ref's call in the Green Bay game, nothing would surprise me anymore!


this +1

in both games too. Not one but TWO!!! smfh i dont know anymore i think a lot of people thought refs had great integrity in every sport outside of boxing, then the debacle with that nba ref but then we said nah... not the nfl refs thats impossible. well my friend money makes everything possible within the realms of reality.

Bigbluefan1974
01-27-2012, 10:31 PM
got it...so its basically their commission on the bet. I am glad I never got into it. Its just a losing battle for everyone except Vegas/bookie.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 10:34 PM
I don't think any Giant player is going to throw this game. Eli would never. But knowing that vegas could take a monster hit, I am gonna keep my eye on these refs. NFL and Vegas go together like PB&amp;J. Look at the possible bad spot. Better not see Brady get his Brady Rules where nobody is allowed to touch him. I really hope we don't see what happened in Green Bay. I do know the Pats get a ton of calls but lets cross our fingers.

NJGIANTinNC
01-27-2012, 10:36 PM
Vegas will be fine.
Considering they wrote the script anyway

In the long run, Vegas will always be the winners. They are like bookies and they always make money. They can take a hit from Giants and be fine.... just like they were when the St. Louis Cardinals made that amazing run into the playoffs and won the WS..... 999/1 odds to win WS.


Wow that's a crazy pay out.
I am by no means well versed with betting. But even when "they" pay out 80/1, a certain % has to get kicked back.
Like the convenience charges on my credit card for paying my bills online, or uncle Sam in general.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 10:43 PM
Vegas will be fine.
Considering they wrote the script anyway

In the long run, Vegas will always be the winners. They are like bookies and they always make money. They can take a hit from Giants and be fine.... just like they were when the St. Louis Cardinals made that amazing run into the playoffs and won the WS..... 999/1 odds to win WS.


Wow that's a crazy pay out.
I am by no means well versed with betting. But even when "they" pay out 80/1, a certain % has to get kicked back.
Like the convenience charges on my credit card for paying my bills online, or uncle Sam in general.

Online is suppose to be illegal nowadays but people still do it and it is hard for IRS to get their "winning tax". It is different than in the casinos. I do know that anything over 10K, you have to file out a form with SS to IRS. I am assuming it is the same as winning at a blackjack table. That guy who won on the Cardinals won $375,000 because he took 2 bets and he dropped $500 on them when they were at that line. http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/article_f2616efa-fe7a-11e0-b131-0019bb30f31a.html (http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/article_f2616efa-fe7a-11e0-b131-0019bb30f31a.html)

Delicreep
01-27-2012, 11:00 PM
It is the sole goal of a book to get 1/2 the bets on one side and 1/2 on the other--they make money on the vig.

I will give you 2 reasons (among many) for us to be dog:

1) conservative money is going to need a small push to take the gints. No 9 and 7 team never winning it all, beating a team 2 x, beating both conference leaders is rare.

2) emotional money is gonna bet Pats, almost no matter what. BB, TB are gods, 'revenge game

And when the line moves, it moves to attract more bettors to a given side.

Drez
01-27-2012, 11:15 PM
Vegas tries to set the line so there's relatively equal action on both sides. I'd be more concerned if there was reverse line movement, which means that the line would be getting bigger even though more action is coming in on the Giants. But, that isn't the case. In the places where the spread has dropped to 2.5, money has started flowing back on the Pats side. So long as the money stays equal, Vegas will make their money no matter the winner. Also remember that they collect the vig on the losing bets.</P>

speedman
01-27-2012, 11:35 PM
If a lot of money was being bet on the Giants the line would drop. If a lot of money was being bet on the Patriots the line would increase. The line has remained the same so the betting is fairly equal at this time. The oddsmakers want to keep the betting equal so they make money on the vig. It's a pretty simple philosophy. They can't lose that way.

Giants10Joe
01-27-2012, 11:41 PM
I believe the way that Vegas sports books work is they try to set the line at a point where they think 50% of the money will be bet on one team and 50% of the money on the other. Then they take a small commission (the "vig") from each bet. They make all their money from the vig and break even on the betting if they place the line right. So what the guy on the radio said doesn't make any sense.

VegasGmen
01-27-2012, 11:44 PM
The side and total aren't the only bets remember there are 100's of prop bets on this game which are always profitable to the books.

bflo23
01-27-2012, 11:45 PM
If a lot of money was being bet on the Giants the line would drop. If a lot of money was being bet on the Patriots the line would increase. The line has remained the same so the betting is fairly equal at this time. The oddsmakers want to keep the betting equal so they make money on the vig. It's a pretty simple philosophy. They can't lose that way.

The line opened at 3 and is just 2.5 now. There is more betting on the Giants right now. Vegas is more worried about the Giants 80-1 odds on the future. They would rather pay the 7-1 odds on the Patriots future. Big difference there. Like last week, Vegas will continue to root against the Giants.

Giant stuck in Texas
01-27-2012, 11:47 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game. After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game. I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed. Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??


Are you kidding? NFL players are making millions of dollars. They aren't throwing the game. If a QB is making 5-10 million per year, how much would it take for him to "throw" the most important game in his career SUPER BOWL? You think someone is gonna throw him $50 million and Brady/Eli will ruin their legacy...... Vegas comes up with lines and futures by predictors with calculators. They said 30-1 odds for Giants to win the Super Bowl when the Giants got in the playoffs. Keep on underestimating the Giants.

And I wasn't surprised at all that the Giants were 3 point underdogs.... Lets not forget the Giants opened 8.5 point underdogs vs the Packers.
I don't know about that man........

Back in the day there was a QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers that got caught shaving points, but they didn't have enough evidence to criminally convict him and was kicked out of the NFL. Long story short, he did end up getting convicted later on for DWI and grand theft auto. He ended up serving 3 years in a Texas Penitentiary, but during his time locked up he ended up putting together one hell of a football team compiled of convicts (Mean Machines) and they would end up beating the guards in a historic football match at Rio Grande High School.

So, anything could happen folks.........

jomo
01-27-2012, 11:54 PM
I'll be the first to admit I do not know much about how Vegas works as far as betting (buying points, etc.)
I don't see how in the world the Giants would not be favored in this game. After hearing someone on the radio this morning discuss betting he was talking about how Vegas put the Giants as the underdog on purpose knowing all the money would flow in on the Giants. He said that scared him about this game like Vegas knows the Pats are going to win this game. I've been watching football for 30 years and I would be devastated to find out this game is fixed. Anyone have any insight to how Vegas comes up with their numbers??
First, the game is not fixed. Second, did Vegas know anything specialin 2007 against the Cowboys, Packers and Pats?? Didthey know anything specialthis year against the Packers and Niners? Take a deep breath and say after me......................Go Giants!!!

speedman
01-27-2012, 11:55 PM
Vegas rooting against the Giants does not affect the line on this game. The line moves according to the bets on this game. If the line dropped to 2.5 then more money is being bet on the Giants at this time, but it's very early. I would rather see the line increase because most bettors are losers. If the line increases than more people are betting on the Patriots.

bflo23
01-28-2012, 12:06 AM
Vegas rooting against the Giants does not affect the line on this game. The line moves according to the bets on this game. If the line dropped to 2.5 then more money is being bet on the Giants at this time, but it's very early. I would rather see the line increase because most bettors are losers. If the line increases than more people are betting on the Patriots.

Yea. The line can be adjusted but it is the futures Super Bowl Champion that Vegas is worried about. It is a lot easier to pay 7/1 odds (pretty much the same throughout season and playoffs) than pay the Giants 20/1 opening, highest 80/1 during season (guessing when they were 7-7 record), 30/1 opening of playoffs.... Vegas doesn't want to pay all the heavy betting for the Giants especially at those odds and that is why they are rooting against the Giants. They said it in that article.

BBlueSince82
01-28-2012, 12:09 AM
nothing but an amateur here, but spreads are part prediction part marking.

setting spreads that will leave money in the hands of the oddsmakers, while encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pocket of oddsmakers.

the season's results simply won't be discounted to the point where a 13 win team would be considered an underdog to a 9 win team, regardless of how strong the 9 win team has looked.

put it this way, if we were the 13 win team and the 1st seed in our conference, and the Pats finally got their act together at the end of the season and were playing against us in the superbowl, i'd be pretty pissed if we were underdogs to the pats.

That's my point.* They are encouraging money to be laid that will leave the most in the pockets of the oddsmakers.* Everyone has been betting the Giants because they believe they are the better team and they are getting points.* How is that going to make them money.* The spread would have to move next week so that money starts coming in on the Pats and even everything out.* From what I understand, Vegas wants the money pretty even, then they make their money on the VIG.* Whatever that is.


Thats exactly right. Vegas wants even money on both teams, so they make money off the VIG. I grew up in a family of bookies, and this spread really looks bad to me. it started out at +3.5 Giants and went down to +2.5 Giants. This means they are lowering the line to get Patriot money since all the money is going on the Giants. Everyone jumped on the Giants getting 3.5, and like other posters have said, Vegas doesn't lose money. This spread really, really scares me. We all know, above all, money runs things.

speedman
01-28-2012, 12:12 AM
You do understand that Vegas rooting against the Giants does not affect the line on this game right?

bflo23
01-28-2012, 12:18 AM
You do understand that Vegas rooting against the Giants does not affect the line on this game right?

I am talking about futures (Super Bowl Champion) when I say vegas don't want giants to win........ I know vegas rooting against the Giants doesn't affect the line and it says it right in the article. Vegas just wants to try to get even betting on each side so they make consistent money from the juice. They don't want heavy lopsided better on either team because it puts them at risk for losing big money. Simple math there.

BBlueSince82
01-28-2012, 12:19 AM
Vegas doesn't really care who wins, they don't root one way or the other as far as what team wins, they only care about making money. the oddsmakers and money in Vegas are not fans of a team, they are fans of money. Vegas stands to lose A LOT of money on a Giants win, and usually Vegas doesn't lose money. Hopefully they lose on this one, just bothers me.

speedman
01-28-2012, 12:21 AM
I'm doing this from an iPad so I am unable to use the quote. My last post was in response to bflo23. This response is for BBlue. It may not be a bad thing for the drop in the line. Vegas puts out the line and the professionals make their bets,then the line is adjusted to reflect the professional gamblers thinking. So the line dropping early may be a good sign.

bflo23
01-28-2012, 12:23 AM
Thats exactly right. Vegas wants even money on both teams, so they make money off the VIG. I grew up in a family of bookies, and this spread really looks bad to me. it started out at +3.5 Giants and went down to +2.5 Giants. This means they are lowering the line to get Patriot money since all the money is going on the Giants. Everyone jumped on the Giants getting 3.5, and like other posters have said, Vegas doesn't lose money. This spread really, really scares me. We all know, above all, money runs things.

Why would the spread scare you unless you think that something shady is happening with the Giants and they will throw the game? Nobody on the Giants is throwing the game. Eli isn't going to throw the game. All you need to know is watch how the Giants and Patriots played. Forget all the spread. Whether the giants are +3, EVEN or -3, it is all meaningless. I could care less about the spread. If I had money on this game, then I would care about every little point. Nothing should scare unless you think refs will do something fishy. We better not see the calls from Lambeau in this Super Bowl or I will be thinking of conspiracy theories. I just hope vegas loses a lot of money and all those giant fans who were smart enough to take them at 30-1 or 80-1 become rich.

BBlueSince82
01-28-2012, 12:31 AM
Thats exactly right. Vegas wants even money on both teams, so they make money off the VIG. I grew up in a family of bookies, and this spread really looks bad to me. it started out at +3.5 Giants and went down to +2.5 Giants. This means they are lowering the line to get Patriot money since all the money is going on the Giants. Everyone jumped on the Giants getting 3.5, and like other posters have said, Vegas doesn't lose money. This spread really, really scares me. We all know, above all, money runs things.

Why would the spread scare you unless you think that something shady is happening with the Giants and they will throw the game? Nobody on the Giants isn't throwing the game. Eli isn't going to throw the game. All you need to know is watch how the Giants and Patriots played. Forget all the spread. Whether the giants are +3, EVEN or -3, it is all meaningless. Nothing should scare unless you think refs will do something fishy. We better not see the calls from Lambeau in this Super Bowl or I will be thinking of conspiracy theories.


Just put it this way; the oddmakers in Vegas have an UNCANNY ability for setting the spread JUST RIGHT to make money. So being the Giant are getting 2.5, the Patriots win by a field goal, Giant money is paying, Vegas is making money. If the Pats were favored by more, I would be really worried. My Dad was a bookie and he actually did make a lot of money. he would see the flow of betting, for example if the money was 75-25 on a team, he would bet on the team that only 25% of the money went on. basically he would bet AGAINST the flows, because Vegas makes money that way why not do it yourself? Anyway, I hope by lowering the line they got sufficient Pats money to even it out, but if the majority of money is on the Giants I really think they lose the game. Not saying Vegas cant lose money, but on a Super Bowl, HUGE game, I don't see it. Remember the Denver-SF SB? The year before we won it. The one the 49ers won 55-10. I remember my dad telling me ALL the money was on Denver that year, he bet like $5000 on the 9ers. Thats just an example of what happens when all the money is on 1 team in a SB.

speedman
01-28-2012, 12:36 AM
This is for bflo23. I don't think anyone believes the game is fixed. The thinking is that most bettors are losers when it comes to gambling, so if a lot of money goes on the Giants it's not a good sign. If you read my last post that tells you why I think it may be a good sign at this time.

JJC7301
01-28-2012, 12:43 AM
The Pats DESERVE to be favored. They are 13-3, have won 10 straight, have TB as the QB, and BB as their HC, plus they're pretty loaded on offense themselves. I think the opening line is perfectly right -- 3-1/2 points.

I'm not suggesting that someone take the Pats laying the points (because I think the Giants are going to win outright), but why should we be favored? We've had a great run in the playoffs and the past 5 games over all, but let's not forget our regular season.

All of the above is why we are not favored, and shouldn't be (even though I think we are the better team and will win).

bflo23
01-28-2012, 12:47 AM
Just put it this way; the oddmakers in Vegas have an UNCANNY ability for setting the spread JUST RIGHT to make money. So being the Giant are getting 2.5, the Patriots win by a field goal, Giant money is paying, Vegas is making money. If the Pats were favored by more, I would be really worried. My Dad was a bookie and he actually did make a lot of money. he would see the flow of betting, for example if the money was 75-25 on a team, he would bet on the team that only 25% of the money went on. basically he would bet AGAINST the flows, because Vegas makes money that way why not do it yourself? Anyway, I hope by lowering the line they got sufficient Pats money to even it out, but if the majority of money is on the Giants I really think they lose the game. Not saying Vegas cant lose money, but on a Super Bowl, HUGE game, I don't see it. Remember the Denver-SF SB? The year before we won it. The one the 49ers won 55-10. I remember my dad telling me ALL the money was on Denver that year, he bet like $5000 on the 9ers. Thats just an example of what happens when all the money is on 1 team in a SB.

UNCANNY ability for setting the spread JUST RIGHT to make money. Just like when the Packers were favored by 8.5 points? Heavy money went on Giants and Vegas lost there. You are giving Vegas way too much credit. Sometimes they hit it right on the head but most of the time, they are off.... The line predictors are basing it on the PUBLIC. They just want 50/50...... I don't understand why you would think lesser of the Giants chances simply because the mass public put their bets on this or that team. I could care less what the public picks or what the line is. If Vegas was so great, they wouldn't have made the Patriots 14 point favorites against the Giants in the Super Bowl in 2008. And that line quickly went down as the public went heavy on Giants and dropped to 12.5...... Giants won that game and Vegas lost money on the Super Bowl. Don't worry whether this team is getting all the money. I still think the Giants are going to win this game. I don't care where the money is or whether it is a 1,2,3 point spread. The only thing that would make me think lesser of the Giants chances is injuries on the Giants team..... not who is betting where.

BBlueSince82
01-28-2012, 12:54 AM
Just put it this way; the oddmakers in Vegas have an UNCANNY ability for setting the spread JUST RIGHT to make money. So being the Giant are getting 2.5, the Patriots win by a field goal, Giant money is paying, Vegas is making money. If the Pats were favored by more, I would be really worried. My Dad was a bookie and he actually did make a lot of money. he would see the flow of betting, for example if the money was 75-25 on a team, he would bet on the team that only 25% of the money went on. basically he would bet AGAINST the flows, because Vegas makes money that way why not do it yourself? Anyway, I hope by lowering the line they got sufficient Pats money to even it out, but if the majority of money is on the Giants I really think they lose the game. Not saying Vegas cant lose money, but on a Super Bowl, HUGE game, I don't see it. Remember the Denver-SF SB? The year before we won it. The one the 49ers won 55-10. I remember my dad telling me ALL the money was on Denver that year, he bet like $5000 on the 9ers. Thats just an example of what happens when all the money is on 1 team in a SB.

UNCANNY ability for setting the spread JUST RIGHT to make money. Just like when the Packers were favored by 8.5 points? Heavy money went on Giants and Vegas lost there. You are giving Vegas way too much credit. Sometimes they hit it right on the head but most of the time, they are off.... The line predictors are basing it on the PUBLIC. They just want 50/50...... I don't understand why you would think lesser of the Giants chances simply because the mass public put their bets on this or that team. I could care less what the public picks or what the line is. If Vegas was so great, they wouldn't have made the Patriots 14 point favorites against the Giants in the Super Bowl in 2008. And that line quickly went down as the public went heavy on Giants and dropped to 12.5...... Giants won that game and Vegas lost money on the Super Bowl. Don't worry whether this team is getting all the money. I still think the Giants are going to win this game. I don't care where the money is or whether it is a 1,2,3 point spread. The only thing that would make me think lesser of the Giants chances is injuries on the Giants team..... not who is betting where.


Your right. One cannot always use betting trends as a way to predict the outcome of a game. I want the Gmen to win as much as anyone. Im so frikkin pumped about smashing the Pats and burrying Brady.

I just know that by using betting trends to predict game outcomes, it has worked many more times for me than any other method of predicting. Not saying that I am a magic 8 ball of anything, and I can certainly be wrong along with Vegas many times, I just pray this is one of those times.

Drez
01-28-2012, 12:59 AM
so whats VIG mean?
</P>


It's short for vigorish, which is a Yiddish word. </P>


Pretty much, it's the commission that a bookkeeper gets for taking the action. </P>

bflo23
01-28-2012, 01:00 AM
The Pats DESERVE to be favored. They are 13-3, have won 10 straight, have TB as the QB, and BB as their HC, plus they're pretty loaded on offense themselves. I think the opening line is perfectly right -- 3-1/2 points.

I'm not suggesting that someone take the Pats laying the points (because I think the Giants are going to win outright), but why should we be favored? We've had a great run in the playoffs and the past 5 games over all, but let's not forget our regular season.

All of the above is why we are not favored, and shouldn't be (even though I think we are the better team and will win).

Exactly. People assume that the Patriots are better or "expected" to win by 3 points because of the line. It is simply set by vegas line predictors where they assume the public will make it even 50/50. They think the national bettors are eating up the golden boy Tom Brady 3 championship on to his 4th hype... And you know a lot of people are. Most of the people just look at the records and say "Wow. Patriots are 13-3. Giants are 9-7. Patriots gotta win that game.".... I am not sure how many of the bettors are real fanatics or just gamblers or homer fans. The points don't mean much to me bc i am not betting but I do know that the Patriots aren't as good as they are made out to be. I can look at that pathetic Patriots schedule, never beat a team over .500 in regular season, have the 2nd worst passing defense in the history of the NFL, terrible performance vs the Ravens, etc. I am not impressed...... And you said lets not forget our regular season...... As a fan, I disagree. I have forgotten about regular season because the Giants are finally healthy, clicking and much different team than the one vs the seahawks. It is night and day difference. I think majority of the betting will go heavy on the Giants if it remains around 3 points...... I think vegas should have had it opening at EVEN and it would have been 50/50.

LTMVP8686
01-28-2012, 07:08 AM
Yes, Vegas does know something!


http://www.betvega.com/super-bowl-betting-trends-last-10-years-point-to-the-giants-under-55-in-super-bowl-46/



"...the Packersí win last season makes the NFC a lucrative 7-3, 70.0 percent against the spread in the last 10 Super Bowls! Yes, the Patriots have been to four Super Bowls over this span but they are 0-3 ATS since winning their first Super Bowl vs. the Rams in 2002, failing to cover in wins vs. Philadelphia and Carolina and losing outright to these Giants.



Trends Favoring the NY Giants:



Furthermore, for those of you looking to play the Giants on the money line, the lower seeds are 7-2 straight up in those games. The only straight up losers were Carolina vs. the Patriots in 2004 and Arizona vs. Pittsburgh in 2009, but both of those dogs obviously covered.



Also, keep in mind that the Giants were underdogs in each of their last two wins, first winning at Green Bay and then winning at San Francisco. Well, in the last 10 years, four teams have made the Super Bowl coming off of back-to-back upset wins and those teams went a perfect 4-0 ATS in the biggest game of all!



What about the difference in the seedings between the two combatants this year you may ask? Well believe it or not, the Giants have recent history on their side there too. If we ignore Super Bowl XLIV between the Colts and Saints two years ago, which was the only time in the last 10 years that the two top seeds opposed each other, the lower seeded teams have gone 8-1 ATS!"

BlueFan718to619
01-29-2012, 01:53 PM
Im pretty sure the line opened up at -3.5 and has been bet down to -3.0 right now.. Im thinking it will be bet down to -2.5 and then heavy money will be come in on the pats.. If you know anything about betting and you're thinking of betting the patriots you'd be crazy to bet right now.. All the action is on the giants.. When the line lowers to 2.5 points you can expect to see heavy action coming in on the patriots bringing the line back up to 3.0..