kkr
02-01-2012, 11:22 AM
>Why the New York Football Giants will beat the Green Bay Packers (http://boards.giants.com/forums/thread/2421531.aspx)
>Re-watched the 49er game from earlier in the season - Notes & Thoughts (http://boards.giants.com/forums/thread/2438230.aspx)
Ok long post but stick with it.
So i watched the game against New England from week 9 this season and took some notes to point out for discussion purposes.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Personnel differences between week 9 and now:</span>
Players of note missing from the week 9 game for the Giants - Nicks, Bradshaw, Baas, Hynoski, Amukamara.
Devin Thomas was returning kicks. Ross punts.
Will Beatty was starting at LT prior to hitting IR, with Diehl at LG and Boothe at C replacing the inactive David Baas.
Jake Ballard was 100% healthy and made some big plays, dropped a couple also but they would have been tough and came early in the game. Will he be 100% the weekend? Hopefully near that level.
In week 9 the PATs had Andre Carter (IR), Josh Barrett (although he limped out in the last 2 mins) and Albert Haynesworth (cut after the game).
Brett Lockett (IR) was in there on Nickel packages, now replaced for the most part by Julian Edleman.
Gronk was 100%.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Game Notes:</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">
</span>The game was 0-0 at HT and what helped us shut them out was good field position acquired from the punting of Weatherford and even more so the coverage units doing their job very well against the PATs, perhaps some insider knowledge by Larry Izzo paying off?
Whatever it was special teams performed admirably during this game for the most part. Ross and Thomas let the unit down though with a fumble on a punt and kick off respectively. Thomas recovered the ball he muffed on the kickoff at the 10. Ross lost the ball and the PATs turned it into 3 points.
No call on a helmet to helmet by Wilfork who for the most part was doubled on 3rd down and held in check. He will be more of a handful this time for sure, he has elevated his play immensely.
Ramses Barden played his first game back since being activated off PUP.
He was targeted early but didnt make any plays. Few nice catches later
though.
Travis Beckum did not see the field at all, i think he could be utilised more in the Super Bowl, especially on 3rd down. Has seen 2-4 balls a game in the playoffs and been used more to move the chains. Bet he is targeted in the green zone, especially with all the attention Cruz and Nicks will get.
Both teams ran a lot of man coverage last time, don't expect this to change in the Super Bowl.
No Nicks resulted in checkdowns to Jacobs which are never as dangerous as when doing the same with Bradshaw.
PATs offense is all about mismatches, they want their backs and TE's in space against the LBers and Safeties, they arent going to challenge you deep down field all that often. I think they will essentially try and cause us problems matching up our defense to their offensive personnel. That is what they are all about.
Deon Grant was superb the first game, picked one pass, should have had another, it was easy too. Covered the TE's well and made plays against the run also.
We ran the Nickel D most of the game, be interesting to see if we do the same again how the PATs might try and run on us more.
Both teams had 10 points off turnovers.
Interesting set of events from 08:19 left in the 3rd. Ross fumble/muffed punt recovered by PATs, Webster should have picked Brady the very next throw deep to Chad but ultimately PATs got 3. On kickoff Devin Thomas fumble/muffed kick, but recovered at the 10, 3 and out followed. We punt and force Edleman to fumble and recover. A few plays later Eli hits Michael Clayton in the back of the endzone but he cant keep his feet in bounds when he should have made that play. Delay of game followed and then a bad throw to Manningham was picked off by Arrington who was covering Ballard in the flat but due to the condensed space was able to break off from that to make a leaping pick, nice play on the ball. Manningham had beat his man. Led to 7 points for the PATs,
4:04 left in 3rd quarter PATs were 1/9 (11%) on 3rd down, then went 4/6 (66%) and finished 5/15, 33%. No Nicks and Bradshaw meant we converted only 4/14 on 3rd down, 28%.
Osi played more at RE than JPP. Matt Light held Osi in check mostly.
Rolle was on Welker for the most part and Welker had a big day.
Eli had under 50% completions and less than 200 yards through to 06:30 in the 4th, then got hot for the comeback. Standard.
No TD's for PATs until 4th Q. Unsportsmanlike call on Mario after the 17-13 go ahead score. PATs got the ball at the 36 and drove down to the green zone with less than 2:00 to play. !st 10 run for 1 yard, 2nd 9 at NYG 14 incomplete to Gronk, 3rd 9 incomplete to Gronk, 4th and 9 Gronk pushes off Boley in the endzone, no flag, TD. PATs lead 20-17.
Giants then go 80 yards in 1:36 to win the game picking on Tracy White in for Brandon Spikes with the huge throw to Ballard and then Sergio Brown in for Josh Barrett with the pass interferance in the endzone on a nice deep ball the Cruz would have been able to make a play on, ignore Aikmans commentary, ****ing hater!
Winning TD was White in man coverage on Ballard also.
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Additional Notes:
</span>Benjarvus Green-Ellis has never fumbled. Not even at college.<span style="font-weight: bold;">
</span>
PATS are on a 10 game win streak which sound great and indeed is great but lets analyse the teams, qbs and offenses they have faced:
8-8 - Jets - Mark Sanchez
- Total Offense = 25th (21st passing, 22nd rushing), 23.6PPG = 13th
7-9 - Chiefs - Tyler Palko
- Total Offense = 27th (25th passing, 15th rushing), 13.2PPG = 31st
8-8 - Philli - Vince Young
- Total Offense = 4th (09th passing, 05th rushing), 24.8PPG = 8th
2-14 - Indi - Dan Orlovsky
- Total Offense = 30th (27th passing, 26th rushing), 15.2PPG = 28th
5-11 - Skins - Rex Grossman
- Total Offense = 16th (14th passing, 25th rushing), 18.0PPG = 26th
8-8 - Denver - Tim Tebow
- Total Offense = 23rd (31st passing, 01st rushing), 19.3PPG = 25th
6-10 - Miami - Matt Moore
- Total Offense = 22nd (23rd passing, 11th rushing), 20.6PPG = 20th
6-10 - Buffalo - Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Total Offense = 14th (15th passing, 13th rushing), 23.2PPG = 14th
8-8 - Denver - Tim Tebow
- Total Offense = 23rd (31st passing, 01st rushing), 19.3PPG = 25th
12-4 - Baltimore - Joe Flacco
- Total Offense = 15th (19th passing, 10th rushing), 23.6PPG = 12th
Pats D = 31st in yards allowed a game (411.1), 31st against the pass (293.9) and 17th against the run (117.1). 15th in points given up(21.4).
8-8 - Jets - Total Defense = 05th (05th passing, 13th rushing), 22.7PPG = 20th, PATS score 37
7-9 - Chiefs - Total Defense = 11th (06th passing, 26th rushing), 21.1PPG = 12th, PATS score 34
8-8 - Philli - Total Defense = 08th (10th passing, 16th rushing), 20.5PPG = 10th, PATS score 38
2-14 - Indi
- Total Defense= 25th (15th passing, 29th rushing), 26.9PPG = 28th, PATS score 31
5-11 - Skins - Total Defense = 13th (12th passing, 18th rushing), 22.9PPG = 21st, PATS score 34
8-8 - Denver - Total Defense = 20th (18th passing, 22nd rushing), 24.4PPG = 24th, PATS score 41
6-10 - Miami - Total Defense= 15th (25th passing, 03rd rushing), 19.6PPG = 06th, PATS score 27
6-10 - Buffalo
- Total Defense = 26th (29th passing, 28th rushing), 27.1PPG = 30th, PATS score 49
8-8 - Denver - Total Defense = 20th (18th passing, 22nd rushing), 24.4PPG = 24th, PATS score 45
12-4 - Ravens
- Total Defense = 03rd (04th passing, 02nd rushing),16.6PPG = 03rd, PATS score 23
Against teams that are top 10 in points surrendered the PATs have put up a maximum of 27 points. Ours was 25th (25ppg) and we held them to 20. Press man coverage is a key element to slowing this team down.
<span style="font-style: italic;">The only team with a winning record that the PATs have beaten this year is the Ravens.</span>
<span style="font-style: italic;">The only team with a top 5 passing offense that they have played all year is the New York Football Giants without their staring WR, C, FB and RB. We still won the game. First time Brady had lost at home in NE in 31 games.</span>
That being said there has clearly been a significant improvement on defense for that team, starting right up front with Wilfork and Anderson. To be fair to the PATs also, they can only beat what is put in front of them and they have done that admirably.
What has been put in front of us the past 5 games is the 13th, 15th, 7th, 01st and 11th best offenses in the league in terms of points per game. We have held those teams to 14, 14, 0, 20 and 17 points on offense which is 65 points (67 including the safety against Atlanta). That is an average of 13ppg.
This defense is healthy and playing to its full potential. For what its worth i think it was near this level in week 9 also when we held the PATs to 20 points. Welker and Gronk had huge days though.
This game is going to come down to the pressure on Brady, the scheming of Belichick in all 3 phases and how we deal with anything new thrown at us. If Eli gets time he will carve them up.
Controlling Wilfork will be huge and we will need Mario, Bradshaw, Hyno, Beckum to all make plays on 3rd down and check downs also. Those guys will be key to moving the chains and putting us in manageable 3rd downs.
Hopefully we can get some big plays from Nicks, Cruz and the running game but i expect our top receivers to see a lot of attention. I expect Gronk to be 100% but if he is any way limited then that will be huge for us. I think if Vollmer is healthy then they will have him in the line and Solder in at TE also to perhaps try and run it down our throats and keep one of our ends on the sideline.
It wont be easy but i like our chances. I wonder if we come our running 3 wide often and early? Too many scenarios to ponder and debate, is it Sunday yet!?
>Re-watched the 49er game from earlier in the season - Notes & Thoughts (http://boards.giants.com/forums/thread/2438230.aspx)
Ok long post but stick with it.
So i watched the game against New England from week 9 this season and took some notes to point out for discussion purposes.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Personnel differences between week 9 and now:</span>
Players of note missing from the week 9 game for the Giants - Nicks, Bradshaw, Baas, Hynoski, Amukamara.
Devin Thomas was returning kicks. Ross punts.
Will Beatty was starting at LT prior to hitting IR, with Diehl at LG and Boothe at C replacing the inactive David Baas.
Jake Ballard was 100% healthy and made some big plays, dropped a couple also but they would have been tough and came early in the game. Will he be 100% the weekend? Hopefully near that level.
In week 9 the PATs had Andre Carter (IR), Josh Barrett (although he limped out in the last 2 mins) and Albert Haynesworth (cut after the game).
Brett Lockett (IR) was in there on Nickel packages, now replaced for the most part by Julian Edleman.
Gronk was 100%.
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Game Notes:</span><span style="font-weight: bold;">
</span>The game was 0-0 at HT and what helped us shut them out was good field position acquired from the punting of Weatherford and even more so the coverage units doing their job very well against the PATs, perhaps some insider knowledge by Larry Izzo paying off?
Whatever it was special teams performed admirably during this game for the most part. Ross and Thomas let the unit down though with a fumble on a punt and kick off respectively. Thomas recovered the ball he muffed on the kickoff at the 10. Ross lost the ball and the PATs turned it into 3 points.
No call on a helmet to helmet by Wilfork who for the most part was doubled on 3rd down and held in check. He will be more of a handful this time for sure, he has elevated his play immensely.
Ramses Barden played his first game back since being activated off PUP.
He was targeted early but didnt make any plays. Few nice catches later
though.
Travis Beckum did not see the field at all, i think he could be utilised more in the Super Bowl, especially on 3rd down. Has seen 2-4 balls a game in the playoffs and been used more to move the chains. Bet he is targeted in the green zone, especially with all the attention Cruz and Nicks will get.
Both teams ran a lot of man coverage last time, don't expect this to change in the Super Bowl.
No Nicks resulted in checkdowns to Jacobs which are never as dangerous as when doing the same with Bradshaw.
PATs offense is all about mismatches, they want their backs and TE's in space against the LBers and Safeties, they arent going to challenge you deep down field all that often. I think they will essentially try and cause us problems matching up our defense to their offensive personnel. That is what they are all about.
Deon Grant was superb the first game, picked one pass, should have had another, it was easy too. Covered the TE's well and made plays against the run also.
We ran the Nickel D most of the game, be interesting to see if we do the same again how the PATs might try and run on us more.
Both teams had 10 points off turnovers.
Interesting set of events from 08:19 left in the 3rd. Ross fumble/muffed punt recovered by PATs, Webster should have picked Brady the very next throw deep to Chad but ultimately PATs got 3. On kickoff Devin Thomas fumble/muffed kick, but recovered at the 10, 3 and out followed. We punt and force Edleman to fumble and recover. A few plays later Eli hits Michael Clayton in the back of the endzone but he cant keep his feet in bounds when he should have made that play. Delay of game followed and then a bad throw to Manningham was picked off by Arrington who was covering Ballard in the flat but due to the condensed space was able to break off from that to make a leaping pick, nice play on the ball. Manningham had beat his man. Led to 7 points for the PATs,
4:04 left in 3rd quarter PATs were 1/9 (11%) on 3rd down, then went 4/6 (66%) and finished 5/15, 33%. No Nicks and Bradshaw meant we converted only 4/14 on 3rd down, 28%.
Osi played more at RE than JPP. Matt Light held Osi in check mostly.
Rolle was on Welker for the most part and Welker had a big day.
Eli had under 50% completions and less than 200 yards through to 06:30 in the 4th, then got hot for the comeback. Standard.
No TD's for PATs until 4th Q. Unsportsmanlike call on Mario after the 17-13 go ahead score. PATs got the ball at the 36 and drove down to the green zone with less than 2:00 to play. !st 10 run for 1 yard, 2nd 9 at NYG 14 incomplete to Gronk, 3rd 9 incomplete to Gronk, 4th and 9 Gronk pushes off Boley in the endzone, no flag, TD. PATs lead 20-17.
Giants then go 80 yards in 1:36 to win the game picking on Tracy White in for Brandon Spikes with the huge throw to Ballard and then Sergio Brown in for Josh Barrett with the pass interferance in the endzone on a nice deep ball the Cruz would have been able to make a play on, ignore Aikmans commentary, ****ing hater!
Winning TD was White in man coverage on Ballard also.
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Additional Notes:
</span>Benjarvus Green-Ellis has never fumbled. Not even at college.<span style="font-weight: bold;">
</span>
PATS are on a 10 game win streak which sound great and indeed is great but lets analyse the teams, qbs and offenses they have faced:
8-8 - Jets - Mark Sanchez
- Total Offense = 25th (21st passing, 22nd rushing), 23.6PPG = 13th
7-9 - Chiefs - Tyler Palko
- Total Offense = 27th (25th passing, 15th rushing), 13.2PPG = 31st
8-8 - Philli - Vince Young
- Total Offense = 4th (09th passing, 05th rushing), 24.8PPG = 8th
2-14 - Indi - Dan Orlovsky
- Total Offense = 30th (27th passing, 26th rushing), 15.2PPG = 28th
5-11 - Skins - Rex Grossman
- Total Offense = 16th (14th passing, 25th rushing), 18.0PPG = 26th
8-8 - Denver - Tim Tebow
- Total Offense = 23rd (31st passing, 01st rushing), 19.3PPG = 25th
6-10 - Miami - Matt Moore
- Total Offense = 22nd (23rd passing, 11th rushing), 20.6PPG = 20th
6-10 - Buffalo - Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Total Offense = 14th (15th passing, 13th rushing), 23.2PPG = 14th
8-8 - Denver - Tim Tebow
- Total Offense = 23rd (31st passing, 01st rushing), 19.3PPG = 25th
12-4 - Baltimore - Joe Flacco
- Total Offense = 15th (19th passing, 10th rushing), 23.6PPG = 12th
Pats D = 31st in yards allowed a game (411.1), 31st against the pass (293.9) and 17th against the run (117.1). 15th in points given up(21.4).
8-8 - Jets - Total Defense = 05th (05th passing, 13th rushing), 22.7PPG = 20th, PATS score 37
7-9 - Chiefs - Total Defense = 11th (06th passing, 26th rushing), 21.1PPG = 12th, PATS score 34
8-8 - Philli - Total Defense = 08th (10th passing, 16th rushing), 20.5PPG = 10th, PATS score 38
2-14 - Indi
- Total Defense= 25th (15th passing, 29th rushing), 26.9PPG = 28th, PATS score 31
5-11 - Skins - Total Defense = 13th (12th passing, 18th rushing), 22.9PPG = 21st, PATS score 34
8-8 - Denver - Total Defense = 20th (18th passing, 22nd rushing), 24.4PPG = 24th, PATS score 41
6-10 - Miami - Total Defense= 15th (25th passing, 03rd rushing), 19.6PPG = 06th, PATS score 27
6-10 - Buffalo
- Total Defense = 26th (29th passing, 28th rushing), 27.1PPG = 30th, PATS score 49
8-8 - Denver - Total Defense = 20th (18th passing, 22nd rushing), 24.4PPG = 24th, PATS score 45
12-4 - Ravens
- Total Defense = 03rd (04th passing, 02nd rushing),16.6PPG = 03rd, PATS score 23
Against teams that are top 10 in points surrendered the PATs have put up a maximum of 27 points. Ours was 25th (25ppg) and we held them to 20. Press man coverage is a key element to slowing this team down.
<span style="font-style: italic;">The only team with a winning record that the PATs have beaten this year is the Ravens.</span>
<span style="font-style: italic;">The only team with a top 5 passing offense that they have played all year is the New York Football Giants without their staring WR, C, FB and RB. We still won the game. First time Brady had lost at home in NE in 31 games.</span>
That being said there has clearly been a significant improvement on defense for that team, starting right up front with Wilfork and Anderson. To be fair to the PATs also, they can only beat what is put in front of them and they have done that admirably.
What has been put in front of us the past 5 games is the 13th, 15th, 7th, 01st and 11th best offenses in the league in terms of points per game. We have held those teams to 14, 14, 0, 20 and 17 points on offense which is 65 points (67 including the safety against Atlanta). That is an average of 13ppg.
This defense is healthy and playing to its full potential. For what its worth i think it was near this level in week 9 also when we held the PATs to 20 points. Welker and Gronk had huge days though.
This game is going to come down to the pressure on Brady, the scheming of Belichick in all 3 phases and how we deal with anything new thrown at us. If Eli gets time he will carve them up.
Controlling Wilfork will be huge and we will need Mario, Bradshaw, Hyno, Beckum to all make plays on 3rd down and check downs also. Those guys will be key to moving the chains and putting us in manageable 3rd downs.
Hopefully we can get some big plays from Nicks, Cruz and the running game but i expect our top receivers to see a lot of attention. I expect Gronk to be 100% but if he is any way limited then that will be huge for us. I think if Vollmer is healthy then they will have him in the line and Solder in at TE also to perhaps try and run it down our throats and keep one of our ends on the sideline.
It wont be easy but i like our chances. I wonder if we come our running 3 wide often and early? Too many scenarios to ponder and debate, is it Sunday yet!?