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NYCDBS
02-03-2012, 03:03 PM
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on what is going on with the betting line this superbowl and its overall implications on the game. This line since it came out has intrigued me. Now id like to preface this by saying that I'm not an expert by any stretch and all opinions are welcome. Apparently it started with NE favored by 2.5 but didn't budge even with the Gronk injury. In fact the line right now has moved up by half a point to 3. From my basic understanding of this the line moves up when people are betting the favorite in this case the Patriots but I'm sure I read somewhere that most of the betting public is with the Giants... So what gives? Could the book makers know something we don't? What would be the benefit of structuring the betting this way?

Simmsy
02-03-2012, 03:07 PM
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on what is going on with the betting line this superbowl and its overall implications on the game. This line since it came out has intrigued me. Now id like to preface this by saying that I'm not an expert by any stretch and all opinions are welcome. Apparently it started with NE favored by 2.5 but didn't budge even with the Gronk injury. In fact the line right now has moved up by half a point to 3. From my basic understanding of this the line moves up when people are betting the favorite in this case the Patriots but I'm sure I read somewhere that most of the betting public is with the Giants... So what gives? Could the book makers know something we don't? What would be the benefit of structuring the betting this way?The line is structured in such a manner that the casinos want equal action on each team. The fact that the line has been 3 pretty much since Monday the 23rd implies that indeed, equal action is being bet on each team. Half the betting public thinks the Patriots will win by more than 3 and half the betting public thinks the Giants will win or lose by less than 3.

Yes, if the line moves up that means more people are betting the favorite and they move the line up to compensate for that. The bookmakers don't "know anything we don't." The line is a function of how the betting public perceives the game. All the bookmakers want is equal action because then they win no matter what.

calzonesays
02-03-2012, 03:08 PM
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on what is going on with the betting line this superbowl and its overall implications on the game. This line since it came out has intrigued me. Now id like to preface this by saying that I'm not an expert by any stretch and all opinions are welcome. Apparently it started with NE favored by 2.5 but didn't budge even with the Gronk injury. In fact the line right now has moved up by half a point to 3. From my basic understanding of this the line moves up when people are betting the favorite in this case the Patriots but I'm sure I read somewhere that most of the betting public is with the Giants... So what gives? Could the book makers know something we don't? What would be the benefit of structuring the betting this way?

No. They don't know anything inside. -3 is drawing a lot of action on both sides.

Right now its about 56% NYG +3 and 44% Pats -3. No reason to move the line. However if the Giants side gets hammered before kickoff you might see it sway to only Giants +2

Even the over/under is basically drawing 50%/50% action. They have the line setup the way they want it.

Lambeau12
02-03-2012, 03:11 PM
I just remembered this game is a lock for the Giants now cause this guy I know picked the Pats to win and anything he predicts the opposite always happens.

NYCDBS
02-03-2012, 03:20 PM
Ok I understand now. A half a point move isn't considered all that relevant. Thanks for the insight.

burier
02-03-2012, 03:23 PM
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on what is going on with the betting line this superbowl and its overall implications on the game. This line since it came out has intrigued me. Now id like to preface this by saying that I'm not an expert by any stretch and all opinions are welcome. Apparently it started with NE favored by 2.5 but didn't budge even with the Gronk injury. In fact the line right now has moved up by half a point to 3. From my basic understanding of this the line moves up when people are betting the favorite in this case the Patriots but I'm sure I read somewhere that most of the betting public is with the Giants... So what gives? Could the book makers know something we don't? What would be the benefit of structuring the betting this way?The line is structured in such a manner that the casinos want equal action on each team. The fact that the line has been 3 pretty much since Monday the 23rd implies that indeed, equal action is being bet on each team. Half the betting public thinks the Patriots will win by more than 3 and half the betting public thinks the Giants will win or lose by less than 3.

Yes, if the line moves up that means more people are betting the favorite and they move the line up to compensate for that. The bookmakers don't "know anything we don't." The line is a function of how the betting public perceives the game. All the bookmakers want is equal action because then they win no matter what.

+1

And thanks for that becuase people need to know that about the Vegas line.

Giantsin04
02-03-2012, 03:23 PM
The line was initially 3.5 but came down to 3 pretty quickly. The reason that this line has been so interesting is because you are hearing a ton of people pick the Giants and then in turn you ask yourself "why are the Pats favored?" - It seems like most of the people on TV and people that follow football fanatically think the Giants are the better team.</P>


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One thing to consider is that the superbowl is unlike any other football game. There is so much more action riding on this game than a typical regular season or even playoff game. This means that there are so many regular Joe's betting out there. It is not limited to the more sophisticated or analytical gambler. You have grandma betting $50 on the superbowl for pete's sake. </P>


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These additional gamblers can have a huge impact on a line and I think that is the case here. For good reason or not, a ton of people hold TB, BB and the Pats team in very high regard. Money flows to Pats simply because of how well known they are and the past success they've had. Even if you watch very little football, you still know that the Pats have been great champions in recent years and they dominate the headlines. "Hey, the Pats are gonna win the superbowl again, lets bet on them."</P>


In order to keep equal money on both sides of the bet, you have to entice more people to bet on the Giants. You do that by giving them points...</P>

MattMeyerBud
02-03-2012, 03:25 PM
I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on what is going on with the betting line this superbowl and its overall implications on the game. This line since it came out has intrigued me. Now id like to preface this by saying that I'm not an expert by any stretch and all opinions are welcome. Apparently it started with NE favored by 2.5 but didn't budge even with the Gronk injury. In fact the line right now has moved up by half a point to 3. From my basic understanding of this the line moves up when people are betting the favorite in this case the Patriots but I'm sure I read somewhere that most of the betting public is with the Giants... So what gives? Could the book makers know something we don't? What would be the benefit of structuring the betting this way?

my theory is that somebody is playing wtih the lines to lay a ****LOAD on the Giants. You won't know until close to game time if the line has a last minute move

The fact its stood to still at 3 is confusing to me. Somebody must be feeding Pats bets to come over the top. No way, imo, that the line should be staying at 3

stormblue
02-03-2012, 03:47 PM
the fact that the line has remained steady is proof
that Patriot fans are backing up their opinion with their wallets and we Giants fans are just running
our yaps.

odds makers knew that all too well when they made the line.
the SB attracts a lot of international money too.
the Pats and Gisselle Brady are also international commodities like Cowboys and Raiders and Yankees .
the Giants are not.

calzonesays
02-03-2012, 03:52 PM
my theory is that somebody is playing wtih the lines to lay a ****LOAD on the Giants. You won't know until close to game time if the line has a last minute move

The fact its stood to still at 3 is confusing to me. Somebody must be feeding Pats bets to come over the top. No way, imo, that the line should be staying at 3


all the casual joe shmoes are laying chalk with the Pats because of stupid things like the Giants regular season record or "Brady doesn't play 2 bad games in a row"

that and sometimes the "sharp bettors" will lay a small amount on the opposite side before HAMMERING the side they want before kickoff, but that is more vegas lore and very rare.