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bflo23
02-04-2012, 01:30 PM
If Giants win, Vegas is going to lose a ton. And if Giants lose, they will make a huge profit. We know Vegas will continue to root against the Giants.

There has been heavy betting on the Giants in the line spread.... 65% on the Giants and 35% on the Patriots.

Rood opened MGM’s book with the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, though
as of late Wednesday the line was 2.5 points. He said 60-65% of the
point-spread bets were on the Giants. Money line bets at MGM were 70-75%
in favor of Big Blue, said Rood; as of late Wednesday, a $100 money
line bet on New York would see a $120 win if the team triumphs on
Sunday.


<font color="#0000FF">
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/patriots-giants-super-bowl-bets-could-break-90m-2012-02-01?siteid=rss&amp;rss=1</font>

Futures bet? Some odds as high as 80-1 or 100-1... Good luck to those who took those sweet odds.
<h1 itemprop="headline" class="articleHeadline"><font size="3">On a Futures Bet, Las Vegas Loses if the Giants Win</font></h1><a href="http://www.wdbo.com/videos/news/national/if-giants-win-vegas-loses/vFs2H/"><font color="#0000FF">
http://www.wdbo.com/videos/news/national/if-giants-win-vegas-loses/vFs2H/</font></a>

Manning
02-04-2012, 01:36 PM
Vegas seems to want to gamble too, never dropped the line down.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 01:49 PM
Vegas seems to want to gamble too, never dropped the line down.

Vegas is in a grey area. I remember seeing it opening at -3.5 for Patriots and now I see -2.5. They really don't want to drop it any more because it won't attract more Patriot bettors from -2.5 to -2. When it is that 2.5 points, Giant bettors are just going to take the money line rather than +2.5 points. At least I would.

All the analysts said the line was completely wrong. I thought opening line should have at least been EVEN.

"Vegas seems to want to gamble too".... Yea. If the Giants win, Vegas will lose big with spread and futures. And if the Giants lose, they will make a huge profit off the spread. Hopefully we see lot of rich Giants bettors rather than see Vegas get richer.

Scarfacee71
02-04-2012, 01:50 PM
Lets hope they didnt pay the refs :p

bflo23
02-04-2012, 01:54 PM
Lets hope they didnt pay the refs :p

Last thing the Giants need is the ref crew that was in the Green Bay game.

Manning
02-04-2012, 01:55 PM
wrong

jhamburg
02-04-2012, 01:58 PM
Vegas seems to want to gamble too, never dropped the line down.

-3.5 to -2.5 is a HUGE move

Manning
02-04-2012, 02:02 PM
It was only 3.5 for only a few hours when it opened.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 02:03 PM
Vegas seems to want to gamble too, never dropped the line down.

-3.5 to -2.5 is a HUGE move

Yea.... 65% on Giants and 35% on Patriots will do that.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 02:06 PM
wrong

The articles are wrong? You think they are lying because....

bflo23
02-04-2012, 02:11 PM
Vegas seems to want to gamble too, never dropped the line down.

-3.5 to -2.5 is a HUGE move

A few sites and casinos like Wynn Casino even had the Patriots as -4 opening point favorites.

<font color="#0000FF">http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/jan/22/sports-books-open-new-england-patriots-slight-favo/</font> (http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2012/jan/22/sports-books-open-new-england-patriots-slight-favo/)

Firenugget
02-04-2012, 02:15 PM
Not for nothing but who cares? I don't care if Vegas loses money. And tbh if you're dumb enough to bet on a game this evenly matched...Oh well.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 02:19 PM
Not for nothing but who cares? I don't care if Vegas loses money. And tbh if you're dumb enough to bet on a game this evenly matched...Oh well.


The hundred of millions of bettors that took the Giants? If you don't care, you didn't have to go into this thread especially when the subject said it was about vegas.

Were those bettors who took 80-1 future odds for the Giants to win the Super Bowl "DUMB ENOUGH"? Just a little jealous?..... "Those future bettors who put $100 on the Giants can now make $8,000! What a bunch of dummies!" lol

TuckYou
02-04-2012, 02:25 PM
I heard that Vegas was right on 19 of the last 21 superbowls. They missed out on ours in 07' obviously. I think the Pats over the Rams was the other. Sounds really fishy.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 02:41 PM
I heard that Vegas was right on 19 of the last 21 superbowls. They missed out on ours in 07' obviously. I think the Pats over the Rams was the other. Sounds really fishy.

Have you seen the matchups? Lot of the games were pretty lopsided and heavily favored one team. Vegas was wrong about Saints vs Colts because it was closer line.... It doesn't take a real genius to pick the winner between steelers vs cardinals, colts vs bears, steelers vs seahawks, pats vs eagles, pats vs panthers, rams vs titans, 49ers vs chargers, cowboys vs bills..... the list goes on and on. Big spread usually means easy pick. (*got the 2007 Giants wrong)

LTMVP8686
02-04-2012, 02:45 PM
Recall that the Giants have been the underdogs in the last 2 playoff games and the odds kept decreasing when they played the Packers and Niners, respectively, which is no different in the Pats game.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 02:55 PM
Recall that the Giants have been the underdogs in the last 2 playoff games and the odds kept decreasing when they played the Packers and Niners, respectively, which is no different in the Pats game.

Yep. Sometimes you gotta throw the vegas odds out the window and this is the case just like in the 49ers and packers games. I watched many of the patriots and giants games and looked at their flaws, strengths, schedules, etc and I think Giants are better overall. If the Patriots play like they did vs the Ravens where the Ravens outplayed them, the Giants are going to win by +20 points. The Patriots defense has been torched all season. And when do the Patriots defense play good? Denver Broncos and Tebow.

miked1958
02-04-2012, 03:10 PM
I am concerned. We don't need the refs butting in

East Coast Bias
02-04-2012, 04:06 PM
I don't get it.If 65% of the money is on the Giants,why are they the underdogs?
Shouldnt the Pats be getting points to entice more bettors to take them

bflo23
02-04-2012, 04:08 PM
I am concerned. We don't need the refs butting in

I just hope they let the players play the game. And they need to let the play continue and don't blow the whistle so quick. They also have to do much better job with instant replays.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 04:11 PM
I don't get it.If 65% of the money is on the Giants,why are they the underdogs?
Shouldnt the Pats be getting points to entice more bettors to take them


Vegas line makers always make mistakes and they did here. It opened at 3.5 points and dropped down to 2.5 points. If they keep on lowering the spread, people will just pick the moneyline. A 1 or 2 point spread isn't gonna entice Patriot bettors. They could drop it to even and I still don't think they will reach 50/50 split with the bettors. Analysts and bettors are loving the Giants and it shows. As I said before, it should have been EVEN when it opened.

Simmsy
02-04-2012, 04:25 PM
There have been 4 upsets in the past 10 years alone (36, 37, 42, 44), so I have no idea where you're getting your figure.

(I'm defining upset as the Vegas underdog winning the game outright).

deejaydana
02-04-2012, 04:37 PM
Vegas isn't rooting for the Giants and the whole "futures" argument is flawed. All Vegas needs to do is get a 50/50 situation---with equal number of gamblers on each side---to make sure they're in the black once the final whistle sounds.
With that said, the minute the line came out I jumped on that +3.5 and a ML wager because it represented true value. I don't see the Giants losing this game.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 04:40 PM
Vegas isn't rooting for the Giants and the whole "futures" argument is flawed. All Vegas needs to do is get a 50/50 situation---with equal number of gamblers on each side---to make sure they're in the black once the final whistle sounds.
With that said, the minute the line came out I jumped on that +3.5 and a ML wager because it represented true value. I don't see the Giants losing this game.

Do you realize that vegas doesn't have a 50/50 situation? It isn't even close. There has been heavy betting on the Giants in the line spread.... 65% on the Giants and 35% on the Patriots. And that is why Vegas is rooting against the Giants. Just imagine for every 3 Giants money line bets.... they get only 1 Patriots money line bet. Simple math. If Giants lose, Vegas is gonna make a ton and will only pay the 35% of bets.

Rood opened MGM’s book with the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, though
as of late Wednesday the line was 2.5 points. He said 60-65% of the
point-spread bets were on the Giants. Money line bets at MGM were 70-75%
in favor of Big Blue, said Rood; as of late Wednesday, a $100 money
line bet on New York would see a $120 win if the team triumphs on
Sunday.

Simmsy
02-04-2012, 04:59 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants.

The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.

speedman
02-04-2012, 05:14 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.You are correct. If the line opened at 3.5 and dropped to 2.5 early that is a good sign. The professional gamblers ( the people that win more than they lose) bet early when the line comes out, then Vegas adjusts the line. So the pros are betting the Giants.</P>


</P>


</P>

bflo23
02-04-2012, 05:25 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants.

The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.

Line opened up at 3.5 (some places had it 4) and it is down to 2.5 now.... 1 point is a big drop. And rule #1 is that you don't keep dropping a line from -3 to -2 points because that isn't enough incentive for Patriots bettors. They will adjust the juice before moving the line again.... A line that already moved from 3.5 to 2.5 points.

Are people gonna be excited and jump on a -2 but refuse on -2.5? Not really.... Patriots ML (-140) or Patriots -2.5 (-120)?..... Not much of a difference when it is getting this low of a line. Vegas don't like giving -1 or -2 lines. They prefer the 3,5 and 7 lines.... Not 1 or 2 point lines because it is too close to ML.

In the end, Vegas will either LOSE and pay 65% of the (giants) bettors or will WIN and pay only 35% of the (patriots) bettors.

speedman
02-04-2012, 05:53 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.

Line opened up at 3.5 (some places had it 4) and it is down to 2.5 now.... 1 point is a big drop. And rule #1 is that you don't keep dropping a line from -3 to -2 points because that isn't enough incentive for Patriots bettors. They will adjust the juice before moving the line again.... A line that already moved from 3.5 to 2.5 points.

Are people gonna be excited and jump on a -2 but refuse on -2.5? Not really.... Patriots ML (-140) or Patriots -2.5 (-120)?..... Not much of a difference when it is getting this low of a line. Vegas don't like giving -1 or -2 lines. They prefer the 3,5 and 7 lines.... Not 1 or 2 point lines because it is too close to ML.

In the end, Vegas will either LOSE and pay 65% of the (giants) bettors or will WIN and pay only 35% of the (patriots) bettors.
Read the post before yours.

Blue daddy
02-04-2012, 05:57 PM
The Giants were 80 to 1 odds on winning the Super Bowl at the start of the season they dont want the Giants to win . What a payout wish I took that bet.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:06 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.

Line opened up at 3.5 (some places had it 4) and it is down to 2.5 now.... 1 point is a big drop. And rule #1 is that you don't keep dropping a line from -3 to -2 points because that isn't enough incentive for Patriots bettors. They will adjust the juice before moving the line again.... A line that already moved from 3.5 to 2.5 points.

Are people gonna be excited and jump on a -2 but refuse on -2.5? Not really.... Patriots ML (-140) or Patriots -2.5 (-120)?..... Not much of a difference when it is getting this low of a line. Vegas don't like giving -1 or -2 lines. They prefer the 3,5 and 7 lines.... Not 1 or 2 point lines because it is too close to ML.

In the end, Vegas will either LOSE and pay 65% of the (giants) bettors or will WIN and pay only 35% of the (patriots) bettors.
Read the post before yours.

Read the post above yours.... It will explain it all. But you do realize the line moved an entire point? 3.5-2.5= 1 ENTIRE POINT. Some people here expect lines to drop 3 full points just because one side is getting more bets. It takes a lot to move a full point. Giants are heavily favored in vegas at 65% and with sports analysts 65-70% as well. Coincidence? I think not.... But it is a lot easier to say....Jay Rood, vice president of the Race &amp; Sports Book for MGM Resorts International is a LIAR when he says wagers have been leaning toward the Giants at 65%. When someone has no legit reasons, they can just call the professionals all liars?! Rood and all those vegas line makers are all liars?! I guess Rood has so much to gain by lying. Listen to online message board poster or listen to an MGM vice president who knows more about race and sports book???? Easy choice.

sharick88
02-04-2012, 06:10 PM
The house always wins. If the giants win, they have other ways to get their money.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:12 PM
The house always wins. If the giants win, they have other ways to get their money.

We all know vegas will survive but it would be good to see vegas take a big hit and see a lot of giant bettors make big profit.... Especially all those future wagers that had 80-1 odds.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:13 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.

Line opened up at 3.5 (some places had it 4) and it is down to 2.5 now.... 1 point is a big drop. And rule #1 is that you don't keep dropping a line from -3 to -2 points because that isn't enough incentive for Patriots bettors. They will adjust the juice before moving the line again.... A line that already moved from 3.5 to 2.5 points.

Are people gonna be excited and jump on a -2 but refuse on -2.5? Not really.... Patriots ML (-140) or Patriots -2.5 (-120)?..... Not much of a difference when it is getting this low of a line. Vegas don't like giving -1 or -2 lines. They prefer the 3,5 and 7 lines.... Not 1 or 2 point lines because it is too close to ML.

In the end, Vegas will either LOSE and pay 65% of the (giants) bettors or will WIN and pay only 35% of the (patriots) bettors.
Read the post before yours.

Read the post above yours.... It will explain it all. But you do realize the line moved an entire point? 3.5-2.5= 1 ENTIRE POINT. Some people here expect lines to drop 3 full points just because one side is getting more bets. It takes a lot to move a full point. Giants are heavily favored in vegas at 65% and with sports analysts 65-70% as well. Coincidence? I think not.... But it is a lot easier to say....Jay Rood, vice president of the Race &amp; Sports Book for MGM Resorts International is a LIAR when he says wagers have been leaning toward the Giants at 65%. When someone has no legit reasons, they can just call the professionals all liars?! Rood and all those vegas line makers are all liars?! I guess Rood has so much to gain by lying. Listen to online message board poster or listen to an MGM vice president who knows more about race and sports book???? Easy choice.
You asking me if I know the line moved a point tells me you didn't read my post, becauseI said in that post the line moved a point. Go back and read my post and maybe you will understand what the movement of the line means. If you dont't read my post don't bother replying.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 06:16 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts

Vegas will be fine. There are plenty of props and plenty of idiots trying to parlay 1H total/1H side/Spread/Moneyline all into one

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:18 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts
Are your %'s based on bets placed or dollars wagered?

Simmsy
02-04-2012, 06:19 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.You are correct. If the line opened at 3.5 and dropped to 2.5 early that is a good sign. The professional gamblers ( the people that win more than they lose) bet early when the line comes out, then Vegas adjusts the line. So the pros are betting the Giants.</P>


*</P>


*</P>Where are people seeing it at 2.5? I can't find any sportsbook that has it that low.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:20 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts


Where is your source? I am just gonna take the word of this mgm vice president.

Rood opened MGM’s book with the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, though
as of late Wednesday the line was 2.5 points. He said 60-65% of the
point-spread bets were on the Giants. Money line bets at MGM were 70-75%
in favor of Big Blue, said Rood; as of late Wednesday, a $100 money
line bet on New York would see a $120 win if the team triumphs on
Sunday.

<font color="#0000FF">http://www.marketwatch.com/story/patriots-giants-super-bowl-bets-could-break-90m-2012-02-01?siteid=rss&amp;rss=1</font> (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/patriots-giants-super-bowl-bets-could-break-90m-2012-02-01?siteid=rss&amp;rss=1)

Simmsy
02-04-2012, 06:22 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.

Line opened up at 3.5 (some places had it 4) and it is down to 2.5 now.... 1 point is a big drop. And rule #1 is that you don't keep dropping a line from -3 to -2 points because that isn't enough incentive for Patriots bettors. They will adjust the juice before moving the line again.... A line that already moved from 3.5 to 2.5 points.

Are people gonna be excited and jump on a -2 but refuse on -2.5? Not really.... Patriots ML (-140) or Patriots -2.5 (-120)?..... Not much of a difference when it is getting this low of a line. Vegas don't like giving -1 or -2 lines. They prefer the 3,5 and 7 lines.... Not 1 or 2 point lines because it is too close to ML.

In the end, Vegas will either LOSE and pay 65% of the (giants) bettors or will WIN and pay only 35% of the (patriots) bettors.
Read the post before yours.

Read the post above yours.... It will explain it all. But you do realize the line moved an entire point? 3.5-2.5= 1 ENTIRE POINT. Some people here expect lines to drop 3 full points just because one side is getting more bets. It takes a lot to move a full point. Giants are heavily favored in vegas at 65% and with sports analysts 65-70% as well. Coincidence? I think not.... But it is a lot easier to say....Jay Rood, vice president of the Race & Sports Book for MGM Resorts International is a LIAR when he says wagers have been leaning toward the Giants at 65%. When someone has no legit reasons, they can just call the professionals all liars?! Rood and all those vegas line makers are all liars?! I guess Rood has so much to gain by lying. Listen to online message board poster or listen to an MGM vice president who knows more about race and sports book???? Easy choice.
Why are you getting so upset? Yes, people in the business of gambling have been known to tell a tall tale once in a while. And, like I said, even if we accept his words as the truth, there is a huge difference between 65% of the bets and 65% of the money.

My rule is to believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear. And right now what I see is a pretty steady equilibrium at 3.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:23 PM
Where are people seeing it at 2.5? I can't find any sportsbook that has it that low.

Here is just one site.... http://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/nfl-football-betting/

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:23 PM
Even if this guy is telling the truth (which is certainly no sure thing since nobody lies more often than gamblers and their bookmakers), you have to look carefully at what he said. He said "60-65% of the point spread bets were on the Giants" - but that doesn't necessarily mean that 60-65% of the amount wagered was on the Giants. The line has consistently been at 3 for the past 2 weeks. Yes there were times when it was a tick above or a tick below but it has been pretty consistently at 3. If 60-65% of the action was on New York, then the line would have gone down.You are correct. If the line opened at 3.5 and dropped to 2.5 early that is a good sign. The professional gamblers ( the people that win more than they lose) bet early when the line comes out, then Vegas adjusts the line. So the pros are betting the Giants.</P>


</P>


</P>Where are people seeing it at 2.5? I can't find any sportsbook that has it that low.ESPN is showing it as 2.5. The local papers in Jersey have been consistently 3.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 06:26 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts

Are your %'s based on bets placed or dollars wagered?

bets placed

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:27 PM
Why are you getting so upset? Yes, people in the business of gambling have been known to tell a tall tale once in a while. And, like I said, even if we accept his words as the truth, there is a huge difference between 65% of the bets and 65% of the money.

My rule is to believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear. And right now what I see is a pretty steady equilibrium at 3.

<font size="4">He said 60-65% of the
point-spread bets were on the Giants. </font>

When he said 60-65% of the point-spread bets were on the Giants, I think he means that 60-65% of the POINT-SPREAD BETS were on the Giants. How much clearer can he be?

Champagne
02-04-2012, 06:28 PM
My betting site is Bodog. Giants have been a 3 point dog from day one, but, I took the moneyline bet for the Giants to win straight up.

GO GIANTS !

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:29 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts

Are your %'s based on bets placed or dollars wagered?

bets placed
Thanks. The important % is dollars wagered. That's what moves the line.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:30 PM
Why are you getting so upset? Yes, people in the business of gambling have been known to tell a tall tale once in a while. And, like I said, even if we accept his words as the truth, there is a huge difference between 65% of the bets and 65% of the money. My rule is to believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear. And right now what I see is a pretty steady equilibrium at 3.

<FONT size=4>He said 60-65% of the point-spread bets were on the Giants. </FONT>

When he said 60-65% of the point-spread bets were on the Giants, I think he means that 60-65% of the POINT-SPREAD BETS were on the Giants. How much clearer can he be?
Is that Bets placed or Dollars wagered?

miked1958
02-04-2012, 06:30 PM
Why are you getting so upset? Yes, people in the business of gambling have been known to tell a tall tale once in a while. And, like I said, even if we accept his words as the truth, there is a huge difference between 65% of the bets and 65% of the money.

My rule is to believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear. And right now what I see is a pretty steady equilibrium at 3.

<font size="4">He said 60-65% of the
point-spread bets were on the Giants. </font>

When he said 60-65% of the point-spread bets were on the Giants, I think he means that 60-65% of the POINT-SPREAD BETS were on the Giants. How much clearer can he be?

That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:33 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts

Vegas will be fine. There are plenty of props and plenty of idiots trying to parlay 1H total/1H side/Spread/Moneyline all into one


You show 58% on NYG... I am reading 60-65%. Your moneyline shows 69%. I am reading 70-75%. Either way, it is safe to say that there is huge lopsided betting towards the Giants. I don't see how anyone can deny the article, vice president of mgm and the stats that you and I show. It dropped 1 full point but I guess they expected a 2 or 3 point drop.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:34 PM
Why are you getting so upset? Yes, people in the business of gambling have been known to tell a tall tale once in a while. And, like I said, even if we accept his words as the truth, there is a huge difference between 65% of the bets and 65% of the money. My rule is to believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear. And right now what I see is a pretty steady equilibrium at 3.

<FONT size=4>He said 60-65% of the point-spread bets were on the Giants. </FONT>

When he said 60-65% of the point-spread bets were on the Giants, I think he means that 60-65% of the POINT-SPREAD BETS were on the Giants. How much clearer can he be?
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their moneyIt only matters if the % is on the Dollars wagered and not on the Bets placed.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 06:35 PM
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

they don't need every game to have 50/50 action to profit. theres money tied up to parlays, teasers, future bets, 1st half bets, 2nd half bets

plus its pretty hard to track the total number of $ on each side.

they will however make a KILLING if the pats win by only a FG.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:35 PM
bets placed

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:37 PM
don't know where you got the 65% on giants stat from.

my numbers say 58% NYG/42% NE on spread.

69% giants moneyline / 31% pats moneyline

58% over 54 pts
42% under 54 pts

Vegas will be fine. There are plenty of props and plenty of idiots trying to parlay 1H total/1H side/Spread/Moneyline all into one


You show 58% on NYG... I am reading 60-65%. Your moneyline shows 69%. I am reading 70-75%. Either way, it is safe to say that there is huge lopsided betting towards the Giants. I don't see how anyone can deny the article, vice president of mgm and the stats that you and I show. It dropped 1 full point but I guess they expected a 2 or 3 point drop.
Do you know if your %'s are based on Bets placed or Dollars wagered?

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:39 PM
bets placed
The line moves based on the Dollars wagered.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:39 PM
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

I don't see the line dropping to 2 points or lower. I think vegas will just take their chances and hope for Patriots win. If Patriots win, they will make a huge profit and save on all those giants spread line and future wagers.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:41 PM
bets placed
The line moves based on the Dollars wagered.

And it moved a full point which is huge. Some casinos had Patriots -4 so you could say a point and a half.... 65% on Giants and 35% on Patriots will move a line like that.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 06:42 PM
You show 58% on NYG... I am reading 60-65%. Your moneyline shows 69%. I am reading 70-75%. Either way, it is safe to say that there is huge lopsided betting towards the Giants. I don't see how anyone can deny the article, vice president of mgm and the stats that you and I show. It dropped 1 full point but I guess they expected a 2 or 3 point drop.

yours still might be right, aren't your numbers only from the MGM grand? the ones I got combine the books and a few of the big online sportsbooks.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:42 PM
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

I don't see the line dropping to 2 points or lower. I think vegas will just take their chances and hope for Patriots win. If Patriots win, they will make a huge profit and save on all those giants future wagers.
Because you don't know how many dollars were bet on each team.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:44 PM
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

I don't see the line dropping to 2 points or lower. I think vegas will just take their chances and hope for Patriots win. If Patriots win, they will make a huge profit and save on all those giants spread line and future wagers.
Bookies aren't in the business of taking chances. Thats why they win and most bettors lose.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:46 PM
yours still might be right, aren't your numbers only from the MGM grand? the ones I got combine the books and a few of the big online sportsbooks.


I will take the word of the MGM vice president who is in charge of racing and sportsbetting. I think it is clearly obvious that there is huge betting 60-65% on Giants especially when the opening line dropped a point (point and a half at some places). Vegas will be very happy or very sad after the Super Bowl.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:49 PM
yours still might be right, aren't your numbers only from the MGM grand? the ones I got combine the books and a few of the big online sportsbooks.


I will take the word of the MGM vice president who is in charge of racing and sportsbetting. I think it is clearly obvious that there is huge betting 60-65% on Giants especially when the opening line dropped a point (point and a half at some places). Vegas will be very happy or very sad after the Super Bowl.
You have no clue what you're talking about.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:49 PM
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

I don't see the line dropping to 2 points or lower. I think vegas will just take their chances and hope for Patriots win. If Patriots win, they will make a huge profit and save on all those giants spread line and future wagers.
Bookies aren't in the business of taking chances. Thats why they win and most bettors lose.

Sometimes bookies do lose. To assume that bookies always set the line perfectly right to get 50/50 is ridiculous. In the "perfect world", they will get even betting on both sides but that don't happen. Lets not forget that Vegas lost because of the Giants in 2008 Super Bowl. It could happen again.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:51 PM
You have no clue what you're talking about.

And you think you are know it all who knows more about bets than an MGM vice president.... Just say "Everyone is lying and I am right". I am sure you know more than an MGM vice president or vegas line setters.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 06:54 PM
speedman is right though.

they don't move a line because of "% of total bets" placed. they move a line when money on a certain side gets lopsided. so in theory there could be 65% bets on the giants but if the 35% on the Pats are high rollers throwing tons of money on the game, the line will move in favor of the Patriots.

the numbers I have is only % of Bets placed, no clue if the Bets on the Giants side are random grandmas putting $10 on the Giants.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:55 PM
That means they need to get 15% more betting on the Pats. The House always finds a way to get their money

I don't see the line dropping to 2 points or lower. I think vegas will just take their chances and hope for Patriots win. If Patriots win, they will make a huge profit and save on all those giants spread line and future wagers.
Bookies aren't in the business of taking chances. Thats why they win and most bettors lose.

Sometimes bookies do lose. To assume that bookies always set the line perfectly right to get 50/50 is ridiculous. In the "perfect world", they will get even betting on both sides but that don't happen. Lets not forget that Vegas lost because of the Giants in 2008 Super Bowl. It could happen again.
Bookies can lose but that is the exception. They want to equalize the Dollars bet on each team. What nobody has answered in this thread is what are the Dollars bet on each team, I don't care about the % of bets placed. It's the Dollars that matter.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 06:56 PM
Jay Rood, vice president of the Race &amp; Sports Book for MGM Resorts International

Rood opened MGM’s book with the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, though
as of late Wednesday the line was 2.5 points. He said <font size="5">60-65%</font> of the
point-spread bets were on the Giants. Money line bets at MGM were <font size="5">70-75%</font>
in favor of Big Blue, said Rood; as of late Wednesday, a $100 money
line bet on New York would see a $120 win if the team triumphs on Sunday


Those are really high percentages... No wonder why it dropped a full point. If the line dropped a full point, it is common sense to expect that there are MORE BETS and MORE MONEY going on the Giants.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:57 PM
speedman is right though.

they don't move a line because of "% of total bets" placed. they move a line when money on a certain side gets lopsided. so in theory there could be 65% bets on the giants but if the 35% on the Pats are high rollers throwing tons of money on the game, the line will move in favor of the Patriots.

the numbers I have is only % of Bets placed, no clue if the Bets on the Giants side are random grandmas putting $10 on the Giants.
Thank you . Maybe now he will finally get it.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 06:58 PM
Bookies can lose but that is the exception. They want to equalize the Dollars bet on each team. What nobody has answered in this thread is what are the Dollars bet on each team, I don't care about the % of bets placed. It's the Dollars that matter.

its very hard finding the total money information. especially with multiple sportsbooks. almost impossible. best thing you can do is view the %s of bets and see which direction the line moves.

speedman
02-04-2012, 06:59 PM
Jay Rood, vice president of the Race &amp; Sports Book for MGM Resorts International

Rood opened MGM’s book with the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, though as of late Wednesday the line was 2.5 points. He said <FONT size=5>60-65%</FONT> of the point-spread bets were on the Giants. Money line bets at MGM were <FONT size=5>70-75%</FONT> in favor of Big Blue, said Rood; as of late Wednesday, a $100 money line bet on New York would see a $120 win if the team triumphs on Sunday


Those are really high percentages... No wonder why it dropped a full point.

Do you read anyone's responses or do you justkeep typing your B.S.

speedman
02-04-2012, 07:01 PM
Bookies can lose but that is the exception. They want to equalize the Dollars bet on each team. What nobody has answered in this thread is what are the Dollars bet on each team, I don't care about the % of bets placed. It's the Dollars that matter.

its very hard finding the total money information. especially with multiple sportsbooks. almost impossible. best thing you can do is view the %s of bets and see which direction the line moves.
The local lines have been at 3 consistently, so that would make me think the money is pretty equal.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:03 PM
its very hard finding the total money information. especially with multiple sportsbooks. almost impossible. best thing you can do is view the %s of bets and see which direction the line moves.


Hard to find total money but it is common sense to assume when the giants are 65% and the patriots are 35%, the majority of the money would be on the Giants. The line already moved a full point down so it is laughable that how anybody thinks it is "even 50/50".

Let speedman think that there is "even 50/50" and assume MGM vice president is lying to him.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 07:04 PM
The local lines have been at 3 consistently, so that would make me think the money is pretty equal.

thats what im thinking. so it debunks the whole "vegas wants the giants to lose" topic that was posted.

even if the giants win the SB and the a few people cash in on the futures 20:1 bets they will still profit because plenty of people put money on GB or NO super bowl futures.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:07 PM
The local lines have been at 3 consistently, so that would make me think the money is pretty equal.

Rood opened MGM’s book with the Patriots as 3.5-point favorites, though as of late Wednesday the line was 2.5 points.

speedman
02-04-2012, 07:09 PM
its very hard finding the total money information. especially with multiple sportsbooks. almost impossible. best thing you can do is view the %s of bets and see which direction the line moves.


Hard to find total money but it is common sense to assume when the giants are 65% and the patriots are 35%, the majority of the money would be on the Giants. The line already moved a full point down so it is laughable that how anybody thinks it is "even 50/50".

Let speedman think that there is "even 50/50" and assume MGM vice president is lying to him.

The vp of MGM isn't telling you anything. 65% of bets placed could be $100,000</P>


while 35% of the bets placed could be $500,000. If you can't understand this then you are beyond help. Its the dollars that matter.If you bet usingyour line of thinking you must have a very wealthy bookie.</P>

keyofgmen
02-04-2012, 07:10 PM
It's really not complicated...Speed has it right. My uncle, passed, was a "line setter". He lived in Reno, but was in the crew (at least he said he was...HAHHA) He explained it to me. It is exactly as said. The "lines" are set to get equal $ on each side (not %).
They would never let one side get lopsided. "Sucker" is the key word, he used to say.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:11 PM
thats what im thinking. so it debunks the whole "vegas wants the giants to lose" topic that was posted.

even if the giants win the SB and the a few people cash in on the futures 20:1 bets they will still profit because plenty of people put money on GB or NO super bowl futures.


But 65% Giants betting and 35% Patriots betting is a huge difference.... Simple math there. Foolish to assume that Boston is getting more money into vegas than nyc. Do you really believe people are jumping to put money on the Patriots? The line was bad, Gronk is hurt, Pats played bad last game, Giants playing well, etc.....

Vegas reported in losing millions in the 2008 Super Bowl so I think they can easily lose in this Super Bowl.

speedman
02-04-2012, 07:12 PM
The local lines have been at 3 consistently, so that would make me think the money is pretty equal.

thats what im thinking. so it debunks the whole "vegas wants the giants to lose" topic that was posted.

even if the giants win the SB and the a few people cash in on the futures 20:1 bets they will still profit because plenty of people put money on GB or NO super bowl futures.
You are absolutely correct. Thats why they call them oddsmakers because the odds are always in their favor.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:14 PM
The vp of MGM isn't telling you anything. 65% of bets placed could be $100,000</p>


while 35% of the bets placed could be $500,000. If you can't understand this then you are beyond help. Its the dollars that matter.If you bet usingyour line of thinking you must have a very wealthy bookie.</p>

I understand the concept of even betting with the money.... But I am laughing at you how you believe that somehow the Patriots 35% is "equal" in terms of money to Giants 65%.

There is a reason why it dropped a full point..... But the MGM vice president must be lying with his conspiracy.

calzonesays
02-04-2012, 07:15 PM
don't know why you are using the MGM as the be-all-end-all for books. Caesars Hilton and Stations both still have the line Patriots -3. Not to mention the majority of online books still have it at -3. But trying to explain all this is obviously not working so I digress.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:18 PM
It is simple mathematics people.... Don't assume that oddsmakers have the "magical ability" to force bettors to get even 50/50 money.

These "magical" oddsmakers are the same people that made 80-1 odds for the Giants chance to win the super bowl in december. And now, vegas is in panic mode.

80-1 future?! 65% on Giants/35% on Patriots (whether bets or money).... IT IS BAD!...... Good job by oddsmakers.

keyofgmen
02-04-2012, 07:22 PM
It is simple mathematics people.... Don't assume that oddsmakers have the "magical ability" to force bettors to get even 50/50 money.

These "magical" oddsmakers are the same people that made 80-1 odds for the Giants chance to win the super bowl in december. And now, vegas is in panic mode.

80-1 future?! 65% on Giants/35% on Patriots (whether bets or money).... IT IS BAD!...... Good job by oddsmakers.


Yes it is simple math. Don't you think that when it was 80-1 for Giants and 5-1 for Packers, there was a ton of more $ put on Packers? Of course there was. Now all that $ is in the bank. That's how it works. They do not lose.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:22 PM
don't know why you are using the MGM as the be-all-end-all for books. Caesars Hilton and Stations both still have the line Patriots -3. Not to mention the majority of online books still have it at -3. But trying to explain all this is obviously not working so I digress.


So you want to believe it dropped from -3.5 to -3? OK.... You could also believe that the 65% on Giants and 35% on patriots are even.

I am sure that happened. (roll eyes)... We all know boston has lot more money than NY.

speedman
02-04-2012, 07:25 PM
The vp of MGM isn't telling you anything. 65% of bets placed could be $100,000</P>


while 35% of the bets placed could be $500,000. If you can't understand this then you are beyond help. Its the dollars that matter.If you bet usingyour line of thinking you must have a very wealthy bookie.</P>

I understand the concept of even betting with the money.... But I am laughing at you how you believe that somehow the Patriots 35% is "equal" in terms of money to Giants 65%.

There is a reason why it dropped a full point..... But the MGM vice president must be lying with his conspiracy.
This is my last response to this thread for today. The local lines have been 3 consistently, means money is fairly equal. If the line dropped a point, then it would mean that more dollars were being bet on the Giants. The part about you laughing at me because of your meaningless %'s shows how clueless you are when it comes to math or betting. I would love to be your bookie.

speedman
02-04-2012, 07:30 PM
don't know why you are using the MGM as the be-all-end-all for books. Caesars Hilton and Stations both still have the line Patriots -3. Not to mention the majority of online books still have it at -3. But trying to explain all this is obviously not working so I digress.


So you want to believe it dropped from -3.5 to -3? OK.... You could also believe that the 65% on Giants and 35% on patriots are even.

I am sure that happened. (roll eyes)... We all know boston has lot more money than NY.
Now you're really getting rediculous. The bets are throughout the country not just NY and Boston. If the line didn't move the money is even. The %'s don't matter.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:32 PM
Yes it is simple math. Don't you think that when it was 80-1 for Giants and 5-1 for Packers, there was a ton of more $ put on Packers? Of course there was. Now all that $ is in the bank. That's how it works. They do not lose.

We all know that the Packers future was bet lot more on but in december, Packers were clearly the favorite to win the Super Bowl.... Lot easier to pay 5-1 or 3-1 (considering Packers were so dominating) than to pay 80-1.

And even at the start of the playoffs they had Giants at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I think lot of people were taking the Giants at 30-1 in the beginning of the playoffs. Great odds there.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:35 PM
Now you're really getting rediculous. The bets are throughout the country not just NY and Boston. If the line didn't move the money is even. The %'s don't matter.

Uh duh. We know there is money from all over. But there is a lot more money coming in from NY because the Giants are playing. It is laughable that you think same amount of money is coming from boston as ny. Another poster showed some analyst talking about NY money that is changing the odds! You need to go back to your "MGM vice president is lying" excuse because that is all you got. A know it all that thinks he knows more than a vice president of MGM and the vegas line makers that admitted to root against the Giants. Too funny.

keyofgmen
02-04-2012, 07:40 PM
Yes it is simple math. Don't you think that when it was 80-1 for Giants and 5-1 for Packers, there was a ton of more $ put on Packers? Of course there was. Now all that $ is in the bank. That's how it works. They do not lose.

We all know that the Packers future was bet lot more on but in december, Packers were clearly the favorite to win the Super Bowl.... Lot easier to pay 5-1 or 3-1 (considering Packers were so dominating) than to pay 80-1.

And even at the start of the playoffs they had Giants at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I think lot of people were taking the Giants at 30-1 in the beginning of the playoffs. Great odds there.


Right. So...don't you think..at the same time there were tons of $ on Saints...9ers..etc??
Again..$ in the bank for them, They do not lose.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:45 PM
<font size="5">"Nevada sports books lost a record $2.6 million on Super Bowl bets because the 12-point underdog New York Giants (http://bleacherreport.com/new-york-giants) upset the New England Patriots (http://bleacherreport.com/new-england-patriots) 17-14."</font>

<font color="#0000FF">http://bleacherreport.com/articles/8960-a-giant-loss-for-nevada-casinos-26-million-on-super-bowl-xlii</font> (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/8960-a-giant-loss-for-nevada-casinos-26-million-on-super-bowl-xlii)

Sometimes vegas loses like they did in 2008 Super Bowl. Even all that juice couldn't help vegas. Vegas is a blip on the gambling (like 1%) when people take in account worldwide and internet so you could multiply those losses.

"But but but Vegas always has 50/50 and always makes money?!" Bookies and vegas always win?! Not in 2008 Super Bowl.... Giants had 60% of the bets that time.... Now, Giants have 65%.

If Giants had 60% of the bets in 2008 and it would eventually lead to vegas losing $2.6 million, what would 65% of the bets in 2012 lead vegas losing (if giants win)? And this year they expect record breaking year in betting.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 07:58 PM
After the game.... If the Giants win, I am sure there will be an article about how much money Vegas lost. I will bump that up to show speedman and others not to foolishly assume that vegas always have even betting and we can stop the "vegas can never lose money on the super bowl" laughable theory.

If Vegas can lose money in the 2008 Super Bowl, they can clearly lose again in the 2012 Super Bowl.

Nelly
02-04-2012, 08:21 PM
From what I have read and heard, the reason Vegas has not moved the line significantly is because they expect a lot of the weekend action to come in on the Patriots. The majority of bets on the Superbowl are placed Friday/Saturday/Sunday of the Superbowl as people come into Vegas for the weekend.

If that is the case and you consider the Patriots a more public team than the Giants, the number of bets on both sides should start to approach 50/50 towards kickoff. Even if it stays lopsided, Vegas will sometimes lose money on the actual game line, but make A TON of money back on all the prop bets.

bflo23
02-04-2012, 08:26 PM
From what I have read and heard, the reason Vegas has not moved the line significantly is because they expect a lot of the weekend action to come in on the Patriots. The majority of bets on the Superbowl are placed Friday/Saturday/Sunday of the Superbowl as people come into Vegas for the weekend.

If that is the case and you consider the Patriots a more public team than the Giants, the number of bets on both sides should start to approach 50/50 towards kickoff. Even if it stays lopsided, Vegas will sometimes lose money on the actual game line, but make A TON of money back on all the prop bets.


Vegas broke an all time record for losing money from the Giants on the 2008 Super Bowl. Lets hope they get a new all time record loss this Sunday....... 60% of bets were on giants in 2008.... Around 65% of bets are on giants now. And 75% of money line bets are on Giants at mgm.

Nelly
02-04-2012, 09:04 PM
SB42 was an anomaly because it was literally one of the biggest upsets of all time and one of the largest spreads in recent memory.

Anyhoo, my personal opinion is that the best bet is the alternative spread of Giants -14.5 at +800 ... if gambling were legal that is. The potential for a Giants blowout of at least 10pts is there fellas! (this is not NYC overconfidence)

Nelly
02-05-2012, 02:09 PM
Is money starting to come in on the Patriots? The juice on the Giants +3 seems to have fallen.

Interestingly enough, the odds on Giants -3.5 has gone from +190 down to +185. This might be an issue where the public thinks either a big Giants win or close Patriots win.

Personal opinion, the game won't be close. Too much emotion involved (MHK and Giants trash talk, etc). Let's make the Pats quit by the 3rd quarter!