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2016 Fantasy Football: Top Ten Running Backs Prediction

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  • 2016 Fantasy Football: Top Ten Running Backs Prediction

    Predicting the top then of any position is pretty difficult, but each year I see these "experts" post predictions that look like a regurgitation of last years top ten. I have run the stats for the last 20 years of fantasy football though and broken down players into three groups. 1) Players from previous years top ten list, 2) Players that have made the top ten in the past (but not last year) and 3) Players that never made the top ten. Here is how it breaks down on average.

    Players in the top ten per group
    1) 3.5
    2) 2.4
    3) 4.1

    There are almost always more new RBs in the top ten than any other group. I think this year it will swing a little in favor of the previous years top ten and 4 will return, 3 will make the top ten again and 3 will be new RBs.

    Predicting their order is impossible. So here is my top ten prediction.


    Todd Gurley
    Adrian Peterson
    Lamar Miller
    David Johnson
    Ezekiel Elliott
    Latavius Murray
    Eddie Lacy
    LeSean McCoy
    Jamaal Charles
    CJ Anderson

    The bottom three guys I am most iffy about. I went back and forth with CJ Anderson, Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Langford for the last spot. The Broncos will have to run the ball and CJ will get first crack at it, if he does good he will make the top ten. Jennings has an uphill battle on a team with a great passing attack, a poor run blocking OLine and Shane Vereen/Perkins taking plays away. The positive is Mac said he wants to use him more and no more RBBC. Langford I think will be good but just not sure he will be able to do enough to crack the top ten.

    Charles is already injured and that is the only concern with him. If healthy he makes the top ten.

    McCoy has the skills but not sure if at this stage of his career and on the Bills he can pull this off.


    Only injuries IMO can stop the other 7 guys from getting into the top ten.
    LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
    "Next man up"

    "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

  • #2
    If Healthy, Melvin gordon should finish in the top 5 in standard scoring leagues

    If he gets hurt, then he will finish in the top 5 in FPPG

    He will also score 2 TDs in his first game as well!


    NY GIANTS ... NY METS ... UNC TAR HEELS ... CHICAGO BULLS



    Originally posted by Generation Eli
    1 and done, and its not even close

    Packers 30
    Giants 13

    Comment


    • #3
      I am not sure Gordon will get a big enough work load to break the top 10. The two main reasons I didn't have him on my list are he is coming off a knee injury and micro fracture surgery and with Danny Woodhead still on the team it's likely that Gordon gets rest during passing downs as Woodhead eats all the RB receptions. He is very talented though and I think once Woodhead moves on and he shows he is recovered he will be a force.
      LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
      "Next man up"

      "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

      Comment


      • #4
        I like Langford due to the volume he'll get. Not completely sold on him talent-wise, though. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up splitting time with Howard. I have DeMarco Murray ranked above CJ Anderson, I think he should do well for at least the first half of the year.
        Last edited by Flip Empty; 09-08-2016, 04:37 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Flip Empty View Post
          I like Langford due to the volume he'll get. Not completely sold on him talent-wise, though. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up splitting time with Howard. I have DeMarco Murray ranked above CJ Anderson, I think he should do well for at least the first half of the year.
          I was really high on Langford but it seems more and more likely that he will have to share some time with Howard and Carey. That season in Philly really scared me away from DeMarco and any other back playing on a new team for the first time. I did break that rule with Lamar Miller because I think he will be used much better and much more in Houston. I have no clue what Murray will do in Tennessee and have the feeling they will try to work Henry in a ton.
          LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
          "Next man up"

          "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by IrishMike357 View Post
            I was really high on Langford but it seems more and more likely that he will have to share some time with Howard and Carey. That season in Philly really scared me away from DeMarco and any other back playing on a new team for the first time. I did break that rule with Lamar Miller because I think he will be used much better and much more in Houston. I have no clue what Murray will do in Tennessee and have the feeling they will try to work Henry in a ton.

            I had different take on DeMarco Murray When Tennessee has a back that can run, they let him run ; Eddy George , Chris Johnson, Earl Campbell. I have him listed as my 3rd.
            The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by TEM View Post
              I had different take on DeMarco Murray When Tennessee has a back that can run, they let him run ; Eddy George , Chris Johnson, Earl Campbell. I have him listed as my 3rd.
              Very true. I just hesitate with him being on a new team and Henry looking like he will get plenty of work. I do think Murray has the potential to be a top fantasy running back, but I had to make cuts someplace lol. I'd love to see some of you guys top ten lists though. This way later on we can look back and laugh at each other, or praise the good predictions.
              LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
              "Next man up"

              "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

              Comment

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