Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Infatuation with drafting a QB???

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Infatuation with drafting a QB???

    I keep reading the following on these boards "as long as we draft a qb this year" and "need to draft a qb" and "we would be foolish not to draft a QB" etc etc etc.

    Where is this coming from? Let's do some basic math....

    10 QB's get drafted each year. Typically 3-4 QBs are drafted in the first round each year. Over the course of 10 years, that is 100 QB's that get drafted and around 40 QBs drafted in the first round.

    Now... If you are still with me... there are around 12 franchise QB's capable of winning a super bowl in the NFL at any given time. Typically, around 6 of the 12 have been in the league well over 10 years. Additionally, approximately half of the 12 franchise QB's aren't even drafted in the first round. Some don't even become a franchise QB until with their second team (Brees and others).

    Let me simplify this for you. On average, every 10 years, around around 5 - 6 QB's drafted in the first round become legit franchise QB's capable of leading a team to multiple super bowls (or even 1 super bowl). The other 5 - 6 franchise QBs are drafted in rounds 2 - 7 (Wilson, Brady, Brees etc) or not even drafted by the team (Brees etc).

    So drafting a QB in the first round - you have about a 5 out of 40 chance to land a legit one. Overall you have a 10 out of 1000 chance of landing a legit one.

    Now, we have a team with glaring holes everywhere, especially in the spot most crucial to a QB's success - offensive line.

    The worst thing we can do right now is draft a QB early and miss. Unless we are 10000000% sure we found a special QB, WE SHOULD NOT WASTE THIS PICK ON A QB! Keep in mind, you have about a 5 out of 40 chance. Whopping 12% chance of hitting a winner!!!!!

    I don't understand why this is so difficult to comprehend by our fans. QB IS NOT OUR ISSUE RIGHT NOW!!!!! Even if Eli is done, no good QB is going to make a difference until the other holes are fixed. Maybe in 2 - 3 years it could be the piece we need and here is the kicker - Our chances of finding a franchise QB then (either in draft of FA) is just as good as it is now. News flash - if we don't solve the other issues, we will have more early first round picks the next few years.

    I don't love any of the QB's in this draft (I could be wrong) but I don't see how anyone thinks this group of QB's includes a can't miss prospect. Why are we insisting we roll the dice when we have other significant holes to fill?

    I DONT GET IT! Help me understand......
    Last edited by NoHuddle10; 01-09-2018, 01:47 PM.

  • #2
    This is the MOST logical thing I’ve read in a long time. Well done sir!!!!

    Comment


    • #3
      So....you're saying we should draft a place kicker with the #2 pick?
      "Sir, I was wondering: did you happen to catch the professional football contest on television last night?"
      "No...I didn't."
      "Oh it was most exhilarating: the Giants of NY took on the Packers of Green Bay and in the end the Giants triumphed by kicking an oblong ball made of pigskin through a big H. It was a most ripping victory."

      Comment


      • #4
        I understand the logic of the ones who say "when you have this high of a pick, the chances of finding a good QB are higher, so you have to draft a QB"...even though the chances of EVER finding a franchise QB are low regardless.

        But I agree with you. I recently crunched the numbers of the current cap space and the information I found also supports your viewpoint. When I finish analyzing it, I will post the Logisitics I found for others to comment on.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by NoHuddle10 View Post
          I keep reading the following on these boards "as long as we draft a qb this year" and "need to draft a qb" and "we would be foolish not to draft a QB" etc etc etc.

          Where is this coming from? Let's do some basic math....

          10 QB's get drafted each year. Typically 3-4 QBs are drafted in the first round each year. Over the course of 10 years, that is 100 QB's that get drafted and around 40 QBs drafted in the first round.

          Now... If you are still with me... there are around 12 franchise QB's capable of winning a super bowl in the NFL at any given time. Typically, around 6 of the 12 have been in the league well over 10 years. Additionally, approximately half of the 12 franchise QB's aren't even drafted in the first round. Some don't even become a franchise QB until with their second team (Brees and others).

          Let me simplify this for you. On average, every 10 years, around around 5 - 6 QB's drafted in the first round become legit franchise QB's capable of leading a team to multiple super bowls (or even 1 super bowl). The other 5 - 6 franchise QBs are drafted in rounds 2 - 7 (Wilson, Brady, Brees etc) or not even drafted by the team (Brees etc).

          So drafting a QB in the first round - you have about a 5 out of 40 chance to land a legit one. Overall you have a 10 out of 1000 chance of landing a legit one.

          Now, we have a team with glaring holes everywhere, especially in the spot most crucial to a QB's success - offensive line.

          The worst thing we can do right now is draft a QB early and miss. Unless we are 10000000% sure we found a special QB, WE SHOULD NOT WASTE THIS PICK ON A QB! Keep in mind, you have about a 5 out of 40 chance. Whopping 12% chance of hitting a winner!!!!!

          I don't understand why this is so difficult to comprehend by our fans. QB IS NOT OUR ISSUE RIGHT NOW!!!!! Even if Eli is done, no good QB is going to make a difference until the other holes are fixed. Maybe in 2 - 3 years it could be the piece we need and here is the kicker - Our chances of finding a franchise QB then (either in draft of FA) is just as good as it is now. News flash - if we don't solve the other issues, we will have more early first round picks the next few years.

          I don't love any of the QB's in this draft (I could be wrong) but I don't see how anyone thinks this group of QB's includes a can't miss prospect. Why are we insisting we roll the dice when we have other significant holes to fill?

          I DONT GET IT! Help me understand......
          I completely agree.

          What I'd like to ask the people that are so convinced The Giants should draft a QB is - what exactly IS your problem with Davis Webb?

          You expect the 2nd pick in the NFL draft to be an immediate starter, whether good or bad. But in this particular case, he would compete with Webb for the start. So, you're STILL going to have an untested QB as a backup with no trade value. What do you do then, especially if you only have two sub-par
          OL returning without a new contract?

          In the same scenario, an OT, for example, may not be suited to start at LT, but could very well start as RT or G.

          I agree that my choice - Quenton Nelson - may not deserve the 2nd pick. That's why YOU TRADE DOWN.

          Also, what's wrong with trading with, say Buffalo, for a 2019 pick in the first? That IS fathomable right?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by NoHuddle10 View Post
            I keep reading the following on these boards "as long as we draft a qb this year" and "need to draft a qb" and "we would be foolish not to draft a QB" etc etc etc.

            Where is this coming from? Let's do some basic math....

            10 QB's get drafted each year. Typically 3-4 QBs are drafted in the first round each year. Over the course of 10 years, that is 100 QB's that get drafted and around 40 QBs drafted in the first round.

            Now... If you are still with me... there are around 12 franchise QB's capable of winning a super bowl in the NFL at any given time. Typically, around 6 of the 12 have been in the league well over 10 years. Additionally, approximately half of the 12 franchise QB's aren't even drafted in the first round. Some don't even become a franchise QB until with their second team (Brees and others).

            Let me simplify this for you. On average, every 10 years, around around 5 - 6 QB's drafted in the first round become legit franchise QB's capable of leading a team to multiple super bowls (or even 1 super bowl). The other 5 - 6 franchise QBs are drafted in rounds 2 - 7 (Wilson, Brady, Brees etc) or not even drafted by the team (Brees etc).

            So drafting a QB in the first round - you have about a 5 out of 40 chance to land a legit one. Overall you have a 10 out of 1000 chance of landing a legit one.

            Now, we have a team with glaring holes everywhere, especially in the spot most crucial to a QB's success - offensive line.

            The worst thing we can do right now is draft a QB early and miss. Unless we are 10000000% sure we found a special QB, WE SHOULD NOT WASTE THIS PICK ON A QB! Keep in mind, you have about a 5 out of 40 chance. Whopping 12% chance of hitting a winner!!!!!

            I don't understand why this is so difficult to comprehend by our fans. QB IS NOT OUR ISSUE RIGHT NOW!!!!! Even if Eli is done, no good QB is going to make a difference until the other holes are fixed. Maybe in 2 - 3 years it could be the piece we need and here is the kicker - Our chances of finding a franchise QB then (either in draft of FA) is just as good as it is now. News flash - if we don't solve the other issues, we will have more early first round picks the next few years.

            I don't love any of the QB's in this draft (I could be wrong) but I don't see how anyone thinks this group of QB's includes a can't miss prospect. Why are we insisting we roll the dice when we have other significant holes to fill?

            I DONT GET IT! Help me understand......
            I agree with you... QB is not the issue right now for this team. The top prospect in this draft probably isn't one of the QB... but QB is the most important position in football. The arguement is trade down and draft OL, or take Barkley and try and recreate what Dallas does or the Rams... running the ball, control the clock, keep the D off the field and fresh. I'll even give you another reason.... there is a greater chance we go 10-15 years not finding a championship-level " franchise" QB, then finding one. That's just based on history. Buffalo hasnt replaced Kelly, Miami hasnt replaced Marino, SF hasnt replaced young, etc. i can go on and on. How long was it before Dallas found Romo. Having said all that if you have a chance to be set at a position for the next 10-15 yrs. QB is the position you want to be set at. Teams don't go from Farve to Rodgers or Peyton to Luck often. We have that chance.
            Needs for 2016

            DL, Secondary, RB, OL, TE, WR, LB

            Comment


            • #7
              So I am not sure this is going to hit home with you, but I am going to start with a little gem we toss around at my office: "because at some point, you just have to"

              Now I am sure there are a million ways to make that sentence seem ridiculous on it's face, and my response would be that all of them are cases where you just didn't have to, so let's just skip over that step.

              If your position is that the Giants shouldn't blindly take a QB #2, then I would like to think everyone would agree with that. If the idea is that the Giants should be 100% certain before selecting a QB #2, then I think we have an issue with the reality of the NFL transition.

              But here's the thing: if you do your homework, and you think that there is a QB who could lead the franchise for a decade, you take him and you don't second guess yourself.

              This is where I think most people land, and all of us, no matter what position we take, have a fraction of the data our scouting department has - the only question is can they process that data correctly?
              "I hire my brains"...Horace Trumbauer

              Comment


              • #8
                The Giants did their due diligence and I think internally (even with the turnover) they feel they got their QB of the future last year.......I agree with you 1000% OP......Barkley or a trade down should be the move.

                Comment


                • #9
                  You can miss on any position! QB is the most important position on the field and we have a 37 year old declining QB and a kid whom the previous regime (that everyone hated) drafted and they did not seem fit to even dress him till game 17 despite us being completely awful. Couple that with having the #2 overall pick in a QB heavy draft and its pretty simple to see why people want to take a QB.

                  You cannot draft with the thought that the guy might bust! Players at every position have busted.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Delicreep View Post
                    So I am not sure this is going to hit home with you, but I am going to start with a little gem we toss around at my office: "because at some point, you just have to"

                    Now I am sure there are a million ways to make that sentence seem ridiculous on it's face, and my response would be that all of them are cases where you just didn't have to, so let's just skip over that step.

                    If your position is that the Giants shouldn't blindly take a QB #2, then I would like to think everyone would agree with that. If the idea is that the Giants should be 100% certain before selecting a QB #2, then I think we have an issue with the reality of the NFL transition.

                    But here's the thing: if you do your homework, and you think that there is a QB who could lead the franchise for a decade, you take him and you don't second guess yourself.

                    This is where I think most people land, and all of us, no matter what position we take, have a fraction of the data our scouting department has - the only question is can they process that data correctly?
                    +1

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by tdawg1413 View Post
                      You can miss on any position! QB is the most important position on the field and we have a 37 year old declining QB and a kid whom the previous regime (that everyone hated) drafted and they did not seem fit to even dress him till game 17 despite us being completely awful. Couple that with having the #2 overall pick in a QB heavy draft and its pretty simple to see why people want to take a QB.

                      You cannot draft with the thought that the guy might bust! Players at every position have busted.
                      The cost of getting into position to even TRY to draft a franchise QB is what? 3 first round picks+?. The NYG are in such a position without costing them anything, by virtue of their terrible record. If they are not 100% sold on webb, but are sold on one or more of this year's crop, they are more than likely going to take their shot. 12% more of a shot for a cheaper cost than most other QB needy teams will have.

                      https://247sports.com/nfl/new-york-g...e-on-113395041

                      "That’s the position of the great number of errors…If you just look at history, just go back, every quarterback draft in the first round from 1980, you could do that, have a statistician do that and in 20 minutes just look at who they were and how many of them failed,” Parcells said. “It’s a difficult thing because some of them have attributes that you can’t see that allow them to succeed. And others have attributes that you can’t see that act as a deterrent to their success. Now when someone can figure those out in advance they’re pretty well down the road to finding the right player.”'
                      Last edited by bigpoppy; 01-09-2018, 03:12 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post

                        The cost of getting into position to even TRY to draft a franchise QB is what? 3 first round picks+?. The NYG are in such a position without costing them anything, by virtue of their terrible record. If they are not 100% sold on webb, but are sold on one or more of this year's crop, they are more than likely going to take their shot. 12% more of a shot for a cheaper cost than most other QB needy teams will have.

                        https://247sports.com/nfl/new-york-g...e-on-113395041

                        "That’s the position of the great number of errors…If you just look at history, just go back, every quarterback draft in the first round from 1980, you could do that, have a statistician do that and in 20 minutes just look at who they were and how many of them failed,” Parcells said. “It’s a difficult thing because some of them have attributes that you can’t see that allow them to succeed. And others have attributes that you can’t see that act as a deterrent to their success. Now when someone can figure those out in advance they’re pretty well down the road to finding the right player.”'
                        Very true. So say they pass on a QB this year and go 8-8, which will probably put them outside of the range to get a franchise guy. Is everyone okay with the fact that you will have to deal about 4-5 prime picks to get up high enough to take one?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by BlueJayC View Post
                          The Giants did their due diligence and I think internally (even with the turnover) they feel they got their QB of the future last year.......I agree with you 1000% OP......Barkley or a trade down should be the move.
                          +1

                          None of these Qbs are worth a #2 pick. Its either draft the best player in the draft or trade down.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            As others have said, once the analysis is complete, if the FO is confident that one or more of the top QB's will be franchise, 10 year starters, they should pick him, and not look back. If they are not so sure on any of them do something else. It all hinges on an honest, unbiased appraisal of the QB prospects. If they lie to themselves about what they see, we could end up with Ryan Leaf II

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by NoHuddle10 View Post
                              I keep reading the following on these boards "as long as we draft a qb this year" and "need to draft a qb" and "we would be foolish not to draft a QB" etc etc etc.

                              Where is this coming from? Let's do some basic math....

                              10 QB's get drafted each year. Typically 3-4 QBs are drafted in the first round each year. Over the course of 10 years, that is 100 QB's that get drafted and around 40 QBs drafted in the first round.

                              Now... If you are still with me... there are around 12 franchise QB's capable of winning a super bowl in the NFL at any given time. Typically, around 6 of the 12 have been in the league well over 10 years. Additionally, approximately half of the 12 franchise QB's aren't even drafted in the first round. Some don't even become a franchise QB until with their second team (Brees and others).

                              Let me simplify this for you. On average, every 10 years, around around 5 - 6 QB's drafted in the first round become legit franchise QB's capable of leading a team to multiple super bowls (or even 1 super bowl). The other 5 - 6 franchise QBs are drafted in rounds 2 - 7 (Wilson, Brady, Brees etc) or not even drafted by the team (Brees etc).

                              So drafting a QB in the first round - you have about a 5 out of 40 chance to land a legit one. Overall you have a 10 out of 1000 chance of landing a legit one.

                              Now, we have a team with glaring holes everywhere, especially in the spot most crucial to a QB's success - offensive line.

                              The worst thing we can do right now is draft a QB early and miss. Unless we are 10000000% sure we found a special QB, WE SHOULD NOT WASTE THIS PICK ON A QB! Keep in mind, you have about a 5 out of 40 chance. Whopping 12% chance of hitting a winner!!!!!

                              I don't understand why this is so difficult to comprehend by our fans. QB IS NOT OUR ISSUE RIGHT NOW!!!!! Even if Eli is done, no good QB is going to make a difference until the other holes are fixed. Maybe in 2 - 3 years it could be the piece we need and here is the kicker - Our chances of finding a franchise QB then (either in draft of FA) is just as good as it is now. News flash - if we don't solve the other issues, we will have more early first round picks the next few years.

                              I don't love any of the QB's in this draft (I could be wrong) but I don't see how anyone thinks this group of QB's includes a can't miss prospect. Why are we insisting we roll the dice when we have other significant holes to fill?

                              I DONT GET IT! Help me understand......
                              Did you just get fired from the Browns recently?

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X