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VALUE is what bill belichick says is important in the draft

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  • VALUE is what bill belichick says is important in the draft

    http://www.telegram.com/article/20130426/NEWS/104269753

    "Patriots coach Bill Belichick puts an emphasis on “value” in the NFL Draft, and according to a study conducted by four WPI students, he’s lived up to his word over the last 13 years.
    "The study, titled “Evaluating Talent Acquisition Via the NFL Draft,” determined the Patriots rank as the fourth most cost-effective team at drafting players from 2000-2012. Additionally, analysis of the past 13 seasons shows that second-round picks represent the best value with 70 percent of the production of first-round picks at 40 percent of the salary."

  • #2
    "Belichick has a penchant for trading down and piling up picks during the draft."
    "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

    Comment


    • #3
      EVERYONE says value is important in the draft.

      Comment


      • #4
        Value is important in everything. How you define value is where people start to get lost.

        More importantly I think the grading is flawed lol.

        "Using the Approximate Value metric, the most successful players from the 2012 draft were Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (first-round pick), Redskins running back Alfred Morris (sixth round)
        In addition to Brady, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (second round) and Aaron Hernandez (fourth) are so far looking like some of Belichick’s best work in terms of value and talent, though both battled injuries last season."


        Cool study though, I'll look more into it.
        LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
        "Next man up"

        "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by B-Red22 View Post
          EVERYONE says value is important in the draft.
          someone on this board was adamant just last season that value had nothing to do with drafting. Argued with me like his life depended on it. May seem obvious, but it is not. People all claim that they seek value but they don't.

          Instead, their ego falls in love with certain prospects then their brain fools them into thinking they are the best value. We can convince ourselves of some quite ridiculous stuff, us humans. Let's don't underestimate how wacky it can get.

          Comment


          • #6
            Value can be found by selecting players with "baggage" who drop to later rounds then they should based upon their talent. >>>>>


            http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2...its_worth.html

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            • #7
              OL dbacks and LBs are the safest picks according to this study>>>>
              https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...the-nfl-draft/

              WR is the riskiest

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              • #8
                What is value.
                Someone , that can come in and starts ?
                Or, someone who is talented but may need time to develope and learn ?
                Belicheck , would trade down into second round and add extra second round picks.
                His reasoning was they have a chip on there shoulder. Because they weren't drafted in the first round. Plus, a lower signing scale.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post
                  OL dbacks and LBs are the safest picks according to this study>>>>
                  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...the-nfl-draft/

                  WR is the riskiest
                  So is QB.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    according to this study... all GMs are basically equal. They all suck! LOL (been saying that for long time, its good to have some proof!)

                    variations are explained in terms of expected variation from the mean that any mathematical statistical occurrence would garner>>>>

                    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...eat-the-draft/

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by fifthavephil View Post

                      So is QB.
                      both were very risky.

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                      • #12
                        teams choose to act irrationally in the draft despite knowing better:>>>
                        https://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448...s-irrationally

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                        • #13
                          We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets and consistent with psychological research

                          inefficiency in drafting

                          https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....ract_id=697121

                          it is a team sport

                          salary cap limits your teams efforts obviously

                          how much can one player be worth? Even a star player?
                          Last edited by bigpoppy; 01-29-2018, 09:30 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by IrishMike357 View Post
                            Value is important in everything. How you define value is where people start to get lost.

                            More importantly I think the grading is flawed lol.

                            "Using the Approximate Value metric, the most successful players from the 2012 draft were Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III (first-round pick), Redskins running back Alfred Morris (sixth round)
                            In addition to Brady, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (second round) and Aaron Hernandez (fourth) are so far looking like some of Belichick’s best work in terms of value and talent, though both battled injuries last season."


                            Cool study though, I'll look more into it.
                            Agree Mikey.

                            what makes your TEAM better is what matters. Not any particular draft prospect despite how good you think they may become.


                            Lots of factors go into what makes your team better.
                            cap situation, who else you can acquire, trade options, needs, etc etc.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post

                              Agree Mikey.

                              what makes your TEAM better is what matters. Not any particular draft prospect despite how good you think they may become.


                              Lots of factors go into what makes your team better.
                              cap situation, who else you can acquire, trade options, needs, etc etc.
                              Exactly. Also we have to take into account their grading system judges a player based on their success, which has a direct correlation to how good coaches do. Obviously Bill has a good "value rate" he is a great coach that makes his player successful.
                              LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
                              "Next man up"

                              "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

                              Comment

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