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VALUE is what bill belichick says is important in the draft

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  • #61
    DRAFT MYTHS! Cool article calls "BS" on some of the narratives, you hear at draft time! check it out>>>>>>>>>>>>

    https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/20...-the-nfl-draft

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    • #62
      Great article on what value is in the draft with new trade chart offered>>>>>

      https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23...ue-trade-chart
      "Future draft picks are valued one round earlier than the current year

      In other words, a team could trade a fourth round pick in 2017 and reasonably expect to receive a 2018 third round pick on the market. A current fifth is worth a future fourth. No one really wants future seventh round picks because they hold almost no value.

      This valuation of future picks is a representation of time value of money, which means that a draft pick now is worth more than the same draft pick in a future year."

      if a team were patient enough, and could find trade partners each year, they could in theory end up with all first round picks after a few years.
      "Trading down on day three and picking up veterans is the smart move

      The Patriots have a habit of trading fifth or sixth round picks for proven veterans and a later draft pick. For example, they acquired LB Kyle Van Noy and a seventh round pick in exchange for a sixth round pick."

      late round picks are considered bait to acquire veterans to smart GMs i garner. Patriots are knows for that i think. Dave G did it with ogletree this year. On paper it was the wise move.
      "There is a premium to trade back into the first round

      The round of a draft pick in the second-through-seventh rounds doesn’t impact the value, unless dealing with future picks, because the difference between the 64th and 65th overall picks is negligible. There is more value in the 64th pick because it’s earlier, not because it comes in the second round.

      First round picks, however, have a special fifth-year option that is not included in the contracts of second round picks, creating an actual difference in value. For this reason, teams can match equivalent values in a trade, but the outside team will have to pay an additional premium of roughly a 5th-6th round pick to get back into the first round.

      This premium is not baked into the table because teams that trade within the first round don’t require this premium."

      so first round picks have even more value.... so if you are trading out the back of round 1, you should get a premium on top of the points to make it fair.


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      • #63
        I am nothing more than just a fan but I think this value stuff is true to an extent but not gospel. If I like a player and his so called value doesn't reach where I'm picking and he is still going to help my team I take him. This player A would turn a weakness on my team into a strength like Dallas did with their Center a few years ago.

        If I already have players that I like at the positions that the so called value players are at I want to fix weaknesses on my team why draft somebody that may not be a priority to you. I think you'll find this thru the nfl but they just don't readily admit it. They say we had our guy rated higher on our board. I think everyone drafts to fix weaknesses. At least the first 2 rounds.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by That Guy Rich View Post
          I am nothing more than just a fan but I think this value stuff is true to an extent but not gospel. If I like a player and his so called value doesn't reach where I'm picking and he is still going to help my team I take him. This player A would turn a weakness on my team into a strength like Dallas did with their Center a few years ago.

          If I already have players that I like at the positions that the so called value players are at I want to fix weaknesses on my team why draft somebody that may not be a priority to you. I think you'll find this thru the nfl but they just don't readily admit it. They say we had our guy rated higher on our board. I think everyone drafts to fix weaknesses. At least the first 2 rounds.
          OK... there are so many factors to consider, that nothing is gospel. just watched Giants.com with the GM speaking....

          Gettlemen just explained that he goes by drat grade, but he also said he considers the value of the position and discussed the value of the QB position.... he also said he weighs the future long term versus the short term in decisions.... he did not seem too worried about value of a position if it was not a QB. He said he would only consider guys withthe same grade..highest grade player would be the pick if its not a QB then.

          But in fact he reiterated that he values the big boys int he trenches. Basically he said there is a **** load to consider and said he honestly still does not know what he plans on doing! Then he also talked aobout weighing a trade offer, comparing it to a report card in school... do you want an A and 4 Cs, or an A- and two Bs and a B+?. LOL LOL LOL so if dave can't factor it all in yet, what chance do the fans have! LOL

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          • #65
            http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/fo...icle-1.3943640

            oh that clears it up! LOL

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            • #66
              Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post

              OK... there are so many factors to consider, that nothing is gospel. just watched Giants.com with the GM speaking....

              Gettlemen just explained that he goes by drat grade, but he also said he considers the value of the position and discussed the value of the QB position.... he also said he weighs the future long term versus the short term in decisions.... he did not seem too worried about value of a position if it was not a QB. He said he would only consider guys withthe same grade..highest grade player would be the pick if its not a QB then.

              But in fact he reiterated that he values the big boys int he trenches. Basically he said there is a **** load to consider and said he honestly still does not know what he plans on doing! Then he also talked aobout weighing a trade offer, comparing it to a report card in school... do you want an A and 4 Cs, or an A- and two Bs and a B+?. LOL LOL LOL so if dave can't factor it all in yet, what chance do the fans have! LOL
              HaHa, I love it. So if we can get anything out of that.... Good Luck. Talking on TV saying nothing.... Politics awaits him.

              Comment


              • #67
                How to determine VALUE of a position? it is very easy. You look at how much they get paid. In a free market, the market determines perfectly (in theory) what something is really worth. Nothing else matters. Not anyone's opinion, not old school thought, nothing. Only what the position gets paid. So exactly how much more is the QB position worth than the RB position? almost 3/4. Yep. That's right. The VALUE OF A RB iIS WAY MORE THAN YOU THINK. Rb's value is a just under 3/4 of that of a QB.>>>>

                14.4 / 20.4 to be exact = 70.59%

                for comparison... a QB is worth almost THREE Right tackles.(QB is worth 300% more than a RT!) LOL sorry flowers goes to show what a really horrible choice flowers was in the draft.

                OTOH of course if you really need a RT and league is starving for them..... but..Big butt LOL the market SHOULD adjust for such desperation and we should expect it will... with so few tackles and such high demand, one would expect they start getting paid more soon......

                free market theory states that the market is perfect and is never wrong. Whih is almost true. it does adjust itself liek we think it will for RT.

                So what about draft trades then?

                If you can get 2 starters for a someone that wants to move up for a QB, you should do it every single time. If you can get two top starters for a team wanting a QB, it is a no brainier VALUE wise. If you can get 3 or 4 starters, you'd be a fool not to do it, if you are going for value.

                the idea of getting a cheap QB for 5 years becasue you drafted him does not hold water. You save FAR more money by having 2 or 3 cheaper players at other positions. Then you have the dough to pay a FA QB PLUS more FA players. Salary cap management is business 101. business management is common sense.

                There is more than one way to skin a cat!




                http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-h...sitions-2014-9
                Last edited by bigpoppy; 05-08-2018, 01:56 PM.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by TEM View Post
                  "Belichick has a penchant for trading down and piling up picks during the draft."
                  Yep. .He did it again this year! & people wonder what his secret sauce is!!! What is that now, 14 years in a row?
                  Last edited by bigpoppy; 05-08-2018, 01:53 PM.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post

                    Yep. .He did it again this year! & people wonder what his secret sauce is!!! What is that now, 14 years in a row?
                    The Giants have done much better below the 10th pick in recent years. I just hope this year breaks that enigma.
                    "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

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                    • #70
                      Bill took an OG and a RB in the first round this year. We took an OG and a RB in the first 34 picks this year. Odd two teams with aging QBs would both skip taking a QB in this "amazing QB" class and go OG/RB.
                      LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
                      "Next man up"

                      "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

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                      • #71
                        the guy piled up a bunch for next season too
                        In other news I've moved up my fantasy draft board in my Dynasty league to acquire Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliot I haven't decided yet
                        Last edited by shocknaweny; 05-10-2018, 11:03 AM.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by IrishMike357 View Post
                          Bill took an OG and a RB in the first round this year. We took an OG and a RB in the first 34 picks this year. Odd two teams with aging QBs would both skip taking a QB in this "amazing QB" class and go OG/RB.
                          More than a few teams were not enamored with the Qbs it appears. otherwise they would have gone more trade crazy, right?

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                          • #73
                            Buffalo got their guy at 7th and Josh Rosen fell further than he would've preferred...the only QB I liked with a Top 5 pick was Sam Darnold but what do I know hopefully Barkley can help this team get back to the playoffs in 2018

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                            • #74
                              Originally posted by shocknaweny View Post
                              Buffalo got their guy at 7th and Josh Rosen fell further than he would've preferred...the only QB I liked with a Top 5 pick was Sam Darnold but what do I know hopefully Barkley can help this team get back to the playoffs in 2018
                              yeah man.

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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post

                                More than a few teams were not enamored with the Qbs it appears. otherwise they would have gone more trade crazy, right?
                                I didn't do an exact count but more teams traded up for no QBs than for QBs. It seems like only the very desperate opted for QBs. Browns, Jets, Bills and Cards each didn't have any decent long term solution. Not even a decent solution for a couple seasons. The Ravens are the only ones and they took a flier by trading up to pick 32.
                                LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
                                "Next man up"

                                "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

                                Comment

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