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  • #16
    Originally posted by bringsimmsback View Post

    TEM, I'm not sure the OPs approach precludes trying to win next year, though. If we use all those extra picks to give Eli what he needs to win, I think we build for the future and what Eli's replacement will need (since his replacement will probably benefit just as much). I'm not sure about the ideas concerning trading players away but the stockpiling picks approach has its merits, I believe.

    And as for the Browns, the problem may have been in execution rather than system/philosophy. That being said, if they get their QB finally, we may see the benefits of this approach this year - they have some young talent and a lot of picks still.
    I can agree to some extent . I don't mind the trading down . The fact is I am a proponent of it.

    Kicking the can down the road (building for the future) has never been a good way to ensure success.

    I think I am correct on this . As GM, owner, coach, you must to have the never chase destiny you seize it attitude . Even if your team is deemed not as good as a team compared to others. Your team has to be a least built well enough to grasp the opportunities that are presented on any given season. The teams ahead you can have catastrophic problems during the season. What you field has to be prepared to take command of those situations.
    He is looking at 2 years down the road ( a can kick) . He is making assumptions that trading Beckham and Apple will produce results. They could have the opposite effect and make the team less competitive. That is also a possibility. Every offseason, you work with what you have and improve upon it. That is the system that works.
    Last edited by TEM; 03-30-2018, 11:34 AM.
    The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by bringsimmsback View Post

      Your suggestion has merit and is logical but I'd rather keep Beckham for three years either by CAP friendly resigning (unlikely) or playing out rookie contract and then Franchise tagging/negotiate then. CAP will be hit but not as hard as giving him what he says he wants. After this year, if we use the structure of Antonio Brown's contract as a guide, we could manage Beckham's CAP hit to be low until Eli is gone and then renegotiate to get it back in the 13 mil range (or a bit higher since the CAP will be higher then) or trade/cut him. Here is AB's contract: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburg...io-brown-6702/
      I have been saying they need to give ODB a contract just like Brown got. Many people don't realize what that is. They game Brown a new deal worth 17m a year for the final FOUR years of the contract. Year 1 of his new contract was the exact same as year 5 of the original rookie deal. So in essence they gave him a big contract but delayed the start of it for 1 year. Makes everyone happy. With JPP coming off the books next year we are in the perfect spot to do it, and I think that was the motivation in trading JPP.

      The problem with the franchise tag is you end up paying him over 16m for one year and get the hit in that year. The 2nd year of the tag is even more money, year 2 is 120% of year 1 and year 3 is 144% of year 2. That becomes very pricey very fast and you get the hit that year. We are much better off giving him a long term deal that meets his needs for money and our needs for structure.
      LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
      "Next man up"

      "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by TEM View Post

        I can agree to some extent . I don't mind the trading down . The fact is I am a proponent of it.

        Kicking the can down the road (building for the future) has never been a good way to ensure success.

        I think I am correct on this . As GM, owner, coach, you must to have the never chase destiny you seize it attitude . Even if your team is deemed not as good as a team compared to others. Your team has to be a least built well enough to grasp the opportunities that are presented on any given season. The teams ahead you can have catastrophic problems during the season. What you field has to be prepared to take command of those situations.
        He is looking at 2 years down the road ( a can kick) . He is making assumptions that trading Beckham and Apple will produce results. They could have the opposite effect and make the team less competitive. That is also a possibility. Every offseason, you work with what you have and improve upon it. That is the system that works.
        I agree with everything you said - my small quibble is that you have to also have an eye to the future while trying to win in the present. If you don't have an eye to the future, eventually, winning in the present will be impossible. Currently, trading down, IMHO, is the best way to win now AND prepare for the future. If we didn't have Eli, I'm not so sure.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by IrishMike357 View Post
          I have been saying they need to give ODB a contract just like Brown got. Many people don't realize what that is. They game Brown a new deal worth 17m a year for the final FOUR years of the contract. Year 1 of his new contract was the exact same as year 5 of the original rookie deal. So in essence they gave him a big contract but delayed the start of it for 1 year. Makes everyone happy. With JPP coming off the books next year we are in the perfect spot to do it, and I think that was the motivation in trading JPP.

          The problem with the franchise tag is you end up paying him over 16m for one year and get the hit in that year. The 2nd year of the tag is even more money, year 2 is 120% of year 1 and year 3 is 144% of year 2. That becomes very pricey very fast and you get the hit that year. We are much better off giving him a long term deal that meets his needs for money and our needs for structure.
          I agree that franchising is less than optimal but I think it is better than letting him walk or giving him a contract less team friendly than AB's.

          And I officially give you credit for pointing out the merits of AB's contract first and raise a beer in your honor

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by bringsimmsback View Post

            I agree with everything you said - my small quibble is that you have to also have an eye to the future while trying to win in the present. If you don't have an eye to the future, eventually, winning in the present will be impossible. Currently, trading down, IMHO, is the best way to win now AND prepare for the future. If we didn't have Eli, I'm not so sure.
            As you sign and draft players it is an automatic that you are securing the future,. But to remove key elements of a team with the idea it is the process of a rebuild . Is a lesson in futility.
            The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by TEM View Post

              I see your point. This is exactly what the brown have been doing for seasons. This model looks good on paper but has produced nothing. As a good GM you have to have the mindset to build a team to win every year. That has been an effective model for success by teams that win NE, GB, Pittsburgh, The giants all have put trophies in the case with that form of team building mentality .
              well the browns actually were morons about it...numbers guys wielding their draft picks as ammunition without common sense is not a good formula. it's like a gun in the hands of a child. Dangerous.

              the browns ended up trading down then trading down then trading down... they ended up with something like 428(yes i exaggerated lol) 7th round picks or something some years. But everyone knows 7th round picks are toilet paper. so yeah... that part of what they did was moronic...

              but the Patriots always trade picks either for players or for as many 2nd and third round picks as they can get. Why. they know those rounds give the best odds of good value.

              BTW the browns do have a first overall and the 4th overall this year...so it's not quite as bad as it looks... they finally this year have a chance to reap Some reward from all those trade downs, so long as they do not blow it.

              I posted a study in my Value thread where it was proven that Trading Down in round 1 was ALWAYS, 100% of the time, the better move in all of the scenarios studied. Teams routinely pay too much to move up into round 1 or higher in round 1. FWIW.
              Last edited by bigpoppy; 03-30-2018, 12:24 PM.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by bigpoppy View Post

                well the browns actually were morons about it... they ended up trading down then trading down then trading down... they something like 428 7th round picks or something some year. everyone knows 7th round picks are toilet paper. so yeah... that part of what they did was moronic...but the Patriots always trade picks either for players or for as many 2nd and third round picks as they can get. Why. they know those rounds give the best odds of goo value.

                BTW the browns do have a first overall and the 4th overall this year...so it's not quite as bad as it looks... they finally this year have a chance to reap Some reward fro all those trade downs, so long as they do not blow it.

                I posted a study in my Value thread where it was proven that Trading Down in round 1 was ALWAYS 100% of the time the better move in all of the scenarios studied. Teams routinely pay too much to move up into round 1 or higher in round 1. FWIW.
                I think Dorsey is moving that team in a better direction.
                The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Another way of looking at this strategy that makes it more interesting is the following

                  Olivier Vernon is due like $17mm in 2018

                  The following, all likely starters are due $25.152mm

                  Odell Beckham $8459
                  Flowers 4579
                  Apple 4132
                  Engram 2436
                  Collins 1947
                  Shepard 1621
                  Tomlinson 1039
                  Darian Thompson 939

                  So 8 starters including 4 first round picks only cost 50% more than Olivier Vernon. So if you had 13 draft picks in the first three rounds over the next two years and 9 were starters that would only add $41mm to the payroll or 2.5 Vernon's

                  Drafting early and often and hitting on your picks is the key to building a team. Something Reese failed at.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by coachf14 View Post
                    Another way of looking at this strategy that makes it more interesting is the following

                    Olivier Vernon is due like $17mm in 2018

                    The following, all likely starters are due $25.152mm

                    Odell Beckham $8459
                    Flowers 4579
                    Apple 4132
                    Engram 2436
                    Collins 1947
                    Shepard 1621
                    Tomlinson 1039
                    Darian Thompson 939

                    So 8 starters including 4 first round picks only cost 50% more than Olivier Vernon. So if you had 13 draft picks in the first three rounds over the next two years and 9 were starters that would only add $41mm to the payroll or 2.5 Vernon's

                    Drafting early and often and hitting on your picks is the key to building a team. Something Reese failed at.
                    The problem is that you can't just do the numbers. If you are paying a player on a rookie deal 8m he needs to perform still. The trick in the NFL is to try and draft well, resign your good draft picks and let the other ones walk away. The key though is holding onto your talented players, drafting more talented players and hopefully finding some talented players in free agency. If you are trading your talented guys for draft picks you are just hoping you hit on your draft picks, which doesn't always work.
                    LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
                    "Next man up"

                    "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by bringsimmsback View Post

                      I think your analogy only holds up if the #2 pick and Beckham have us set for life already
                      No my analogy is based on the draft being a complete and utter crapshoot hence the lotto comparison. I don't care what pick we have there is no guarantee we will pick right. We did pick right with ODB. What data do you have that makes you think we can duplicate that with any type of frequency?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        It all depends on your starting position--ours 3-13. And the financials. Right now I'd say we are neither in a win-now posture nor build for the future posture, but I think we can definitely say, it's do what is necessary after several years of unsatisfying entertainment to fill the seats now.

                        Just another point. NFL TV ratings have been declining. New York is the country's largest TV market. I don't think you can arrest the decline or reverse it without a successful team in New York. The NFL has a vested interest in seeing something exciting happening in New York. Don't rule out League influence or the subtle influence of other owners on the Giants. Does that mean trade OBJ and draft Barkley. From the league POV that might improve ratings in New York AND LA.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by blu_buddha View Post

                          No my analogy is based on the draft being a complete and utter crapshoot hence the lotto comparison. I don't care what pick we have there is no guarantee we will pick right. We did pick right with ODB. What data do you have that makes you think we can duplicate that with any type of frequency?
                          It was a good comparison. Sometimes though it doesn't even have anything to do with it being a crapshoot, sometimes there simply isn't a great talent at the position. There are many drafts that produce zero top quality WRs (or insert a position). So we could trade for enough picks to take every WR in the draft and still come up empty handed. Simply not worth it. We will likely never replace ODB on the field.
                          LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
                          "Next man up"

                          "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by blu_buddha View Post

                            No my analogy is based on the draft being a complete and utter crapshoot hence the lotto comparison. I don't care what pick we have there is no guarantee we will pick right. We did pick right with ODB. What data do you have that makes you think we can duplicate that with any type of frequency?
                            I don't have any - and never put forth that idea and am generally against trading him away. I prefer to try to sign him to a deal like Antonio Brown's or, failing that, franchise him after making him play out his rookie contract and trade him then. Trading him now is a mistake I believe (though I'm open to arguments).

                            As for your analogy, it makes no sense to spend your lotto winnings on additional lotto tickets not only because you are extremely unlikely to win again but also because you have already accomplished the whole point of the lotto - becoming rich beyond any possible additional need. Now I know I'm nitpicking (which was why I tried to imply I was joking with the smiley face), but the odds of getting a great player are better than the odds of hitting the lotto and, even if we are unlikely to get a player equal to Beckham, Beckham does not set us up to have no additional needs.

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