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Food for thought on QB pick

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  • Food for thought on QB pick

    I know a lot of people on here claim that we don't get to pick this high that often, so we should grab Eli's replacement.............I believe this thinking to be flawed........Aaron Rodgers was drafted later in the 1st, 24th pick of that draft if I am correct. So are you gonna tell me GB just got lucky?!

  • #2
    For every Aaron Rodgers. There are 20 JP losmans, and I can name a million more

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    • #3
      Originally posted by jintslifer1 View Post
      For every Aaron Rodgers. There are 20 JP losmans, and I can name a million more

      Agree.....but how do we know if one of these top graded ones is or is not a Losman?

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      • #4
        Also Russell Wilson was a day 2 pick.........

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        • #5
          Originally posted by shane4177 View Post
          Also Russell Wilson was a day 2 pick.........
          Have you done the research comparing the chances of drafting a star QB in the first round as opposed to later rounds?

          I feel like a lot of posters would have benefited from taking a stats class during the course of their education....
          Last edited by TCHOF; 04-14-2018, 05:44 PM.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by TCHOF View Post

            Have you done the research comparing the chances of drafting a star QB in the first round as opposed to later rounds?

            I feel like a lot of posters would have benefited from taking a stats class during the course of their education....
            70% a franchise Qb will be taken in any give draft
            50% after the first QB is taken off the board
            15% chance 2 franchise QBs taken with picks 1 and 2
            25% a Franchise QB will be taken in any given draft after the 1st round.

            If we use an average of 15 Qbs taken in every draft , with an average of 2 taken in the 1st round.

            There is a 2% chance to pick the 1 QB in every 4 drafts picked after the first round that is a franchise QB
            Last edited by TEM; 04-14-2018, 07:49 PM.
            The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by TEM View Post

              70% a franchise Qb will be taken in any give draft
              50% after the first QB is taken off the board
              15% chance 2 franchise QBs taken with picks 1 and 2
              25% a Franchise QB will be taken in any given draft after the 1st round.

              If we use an average of 15 Qbs taken in every draft , with an average of 2 taken in the 1st round.

              There is a 2% chance to pick the 1 QB in every 4 drafts picked after the first round that is a franchise QB
              You are a gentleman and a scholar

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              • #8
                Originally posted by TCHOF View Post

                You are a gentleman and a scholar
                I am a numbers geek.
                The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by TEM View Post

                  70% a franchise Qb will be taken in any give draft
                  50% after the first QB is taken off the board
                  15% chance 2 franchise QBs taken with picks 1 and 2
                  25% a Franchise QB will be taken in any given draft after the 1st round.

                  If we use an average of 15 Qbs taken in every draft , with an average of 2 taken in the 1st round.

                  There is a 2% chance to pick the 1 QB in every 4 drafts picked after the first round that is a franchise QB
                  Just curious, what time frame is this data over? Any trends or ways to segment data? Curious to know how different the percentages are between decades and such

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by NetSymptom View Post

                    Just curious, what time frame is this data over? Any trends or ways to segment data? Curious to know how different the percentages are between decades and such
                    20 seasons 1992-2011 I used IrishMike's notion that a franchise QB is given a second contract by the team that drafted him.
                    The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by TEM View Post

                      20 seasons 1992-2011 I used IrishMike's notion that a franchise QB is given a second contract by the team that drafted him.
                      Glad I could contribute. Those numbers seem to be the same as we (separately) came up with in other threads as well. I'd also like to mention the odds of a draft producing zero franchise QBs is greater than the chance it produces 3. So using that and TEMs odds of a franchise QB going #1 and #2 I'd say there is a pretty poor chance for us to nail an amazing QB in this draft. Not saying it won't or can't happen and if G-Man and ShuShu love one of these guys I am all for it. Heck if they pass on great talents like Barkley and Nelson for a QB I'll be convinced they think that QB will be great.


                      Originally posted by TCHOF View Post
                      Have you done the research comparing the chances of drafting a star QB in the first round as opposed to later rounds?
                      I'd like to point out that the odds of doing this now are greater than in the past. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but over the last 10 years the later rounds have produced plenty of star QBs. 4 of the last 5 QBs to win a Super Bowl were not 1st rounders, for instance. I think this has to do with the changing of the college game making it harder to scout these guys.
                      LT (132.5) -> Strahan (141.5) -> Osi (65) -> Tuck (60.5) -> JPP (50) -> ???
                      "Next man up"

                      "I am a nasty football player, I get after people. That is something that I am very proud of. I am out there and I am physical every play, making sure that the guy across from me wants to quit." - Adam Bisnowaty

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TEM View Post

                        70% a franchise Qb will be taken in any give draft
                        50% after the first QB is taken off the board
                        15% chance 2 franchise QBs taken with picks 1 and 2
                        25% a Franchise QB will be taken in any given draft after the 1st round.

                        If we use an average of 15 Qbs taken in every draft , with an average of 2 taken in the 1st round.

                        There is a 2% chance to pick the 1 QB in every 4 drafts picked after the first round that is a franchise QB
                        Sweet analysis.

                        I would be remiss if I didn't point out that not every QB picked was picked with the idea that they would be franchise QB; many were picked to be back-ups or as pure projects.
                        "I hire my brains"...Horace Trumbauer

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Delicreep View Post

                          Sweet analysis.

                          I would be remiss if I didn't point out that not every QB picked was picked with the idea that they would be franchise QB; many were picked to be back-ups or as pure projects.
                          Interesting point Brady, Wilson, Favre, Romo and Prescott all come to mind.

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                          • #14
                            And here we go with the list of non 1st rd QB. And I could list all the guards and RB that became stars that weren't 1st rd picks too.

                            This is the weirdest board ... somehow taking a QB is taboo...it's like me saying here's a new car...you guys would say "no no no I'll stick with my old car cuz these new cars tend to be lemons and I don't wanna get stuck on the side of the road ...no no I like my 37 yr old car thank you. I'm going to ride this forever. I'm never going to get a new car ..it's too risky"

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Delicreep View Post

                              Sweet analysis.

                              I would be remiss if I didn't point out that not every QB picked was picked with the idea that they would be franchise QB; many were picked to be back-ups or as pure projects.
                              I agree
                              The Dallas Cowboys have now gone exactly One Third of their pathetic existence without a Super bowl appearance.

                              Comment

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