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Value of Position versus Value of Player

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  • #31
    Originally posted by IrishMike357 View Post
    I also think when considering this and looking at numbers of players drafted or salaries of players it is important to remember that most positions in football start two players. WR, OT, OG, CB, S, LB, DE, DT all start multiple players; so it becomes increasingly important to hit those positions because having one stud is not enough. If you have the greatest CB ever teams can just throw away from him. QB, RB, C and TE (sort of) only have 1 starter.

    Let's pretend that Barkley and Hernandez are great players this year and in next years draft we have a great RB and OG sitting there for us. We would take the OG for sure over the RB. I think teams are more likely to pass on players that come from QB, RB, C or TE because they only need 1 great one.

    Just more food for thought.

    I doubt the position > player people will show up because there is no logic behind it to defend their thoughts. I spent the last 5 months discussing it with them and they never had an answer. They simply didn't want Barkley or Nelson.
    i think at 2, Gettleman had the right thought process of just taking the BPA and not passing on Barkley just because he was a RB. The only criticism I have for Gettleman was that I think he should have waited until the last second to make the pick in case there were any last second offers. But at the end of the day, I’m happy he stayed true to his board and didn’t take a QB just for the sake of taking one. I think needs and position should definitely be taken into account like you said. If Gettleman rated Darnold equally to Barkley, then sure. Take the QB then since the QB position is more valuable. But obviously Gettleman didn’t think they were equal.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by TEM View Post
      Value: The regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something.

      For a first round pick what is more important? Position or Player?

      For me a first round pick only needs to achieve 3 goals

      1) Must be ready to play day one.
      2) Must make other teams have to scheme against him.
      3) No body is a better choice. at the time of the pick.

      Any position on the field with a 1st round pick if the right player is chosen, should be able to achieve all 3 the moment they are picked.

      So where is the grey area lies between Player
      versus Position?
      I could make compelling arguments for both sides. The entire MB can and will.


      Some would argue some positions in the 1st round should be held in higher regard than others. I agree to some extent but I am not as convinced as I once was.

      QB ,LT, Edge Rusher, WR, DB all seem to be in higher standing then other positions ( at least in the first 15 picks)
      If you observe what these positions all have in common. One thing is obvious. Pass the ball. Stop the pass.
      I can agree you need DBs and a quality pass rush ( always have always will) but should the rest of the Defense suffer for that mind set?

      So why did the Giants GM take a RB and a Guard with the first 2 picks? If position holds more value than Player?
      I kind of have an idea on why. Do you?

      Does position hold more weight than player?

      We could have taken a QB with the #2 pick
      .
      70% chance in any given draft a franchise QB is taken
      50% chance after the 1st Qb is taken off the board half of 70% is 35%. To get a franchise QB in any given draft after the first is picked.

      Was a 35% success rate worth that position with the 2nd pick? after the Browns took a QB?

      Some would argue this is a unique class. 20 years of drafts that I researched (the 04 class was an anomaly) Not one GM, HC , OC, QBC has been able to break the stats. Often the 1st QB taken is a hit the others are statically not worth a high pick.

      Is a QB worth a gamble with any top of the 1st picks that is not the first overall?

      Even with the blatant failure rate. QBs are still highly prized, The (pass the ball stop the pass) mindset that drives the madness.
      IMO: the mindset Reese had when he drafted Flowers and Apple

      So I believe I have established why the list QB, ER, LT WR, DB are so highly picked with the first 15 picks

      The question is: are they more valuable that the a TE, RB, MLB, DT, OG. (there are instances that these positions get drafted with high picks and have been in more recent years. But it not the norm ( or is it becoming)

      This is where the logic of that ( pass the ball, stop the pass) mindset comes into play. If there are so few “pure passers” and quality pass protectors in the NFL . Why try to build a team that cannot do what you want it to do? There are a handful of teams over the past few decades that have dominated with multiple wins. Yet every other team tries to follow that model “QB, ER, LT, WR, DB” with a top draft pick with futility and failure.. IMO: It is insanity.

      Now it seems some GMs have kind of broke away from that mind set. Are going back to Player value as opposed to Position value. Will it pay off hard to say. It is a change from a model that become elitist for some teams and a nightmare for the rest of the league. (Except for NE)


      So it goes back to Value of Position
      versus Value of Player?

      I would love to read your thoughts.
      I honestly think there are way too many variables involved to make such a debate so simplistic.

      Having said that, I believe whatever decisions are made comes down to the player, and not the position. IMO, if you ask any smart guy in the business this same question, they would probably preface any answer given with "it depends on the player...."

      Also, IMO using the top of the draft to establish good drafting strategy is setting yourself up for failure. In the last 20 years AZ, CLE, and JAX have had the most picks in the top 10 and none would be considered the be model franchises over that time. Their picks make up a good amount of data being used to establish a successful model. So why would we use a system that naturally measures failure as a model to follow to achieve success?

      So complicated a subject

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      • #33
        Originally posted by TEM View Post


        For me a first round pick only needs to achieve 3 goals

        1) Must be ready to play day one.
        2) Must make other teams have to scheme against him.
        3) No body is a better choice. at the time of the pick.

        Any position on the field with a 1st round pick if the right player is chosen, should be able to achieve all 3 the moment they are picked.

        I really don't see the QB position falling into the same criteria, as all the other positions do here:
        1- Very few high pick QBs are actually ready to play day one in the NFL. Some may be forced to, but there are usually little expectations, and patience is key. Others might wait a season or two, depending on what the team already has at that position.
        2- The opposing team must game plan against any QB - from 1rst rounders to UFAs, starter to 3rd string, it doesn't matter.
        3- A better choice is very subjective, or dependent on the team's current or future schemes and needs.
        Just some thoughts, not sure if they address what your subject matter was?

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Moecoastie77 View Post

          I honestly think there are way too many variables involved to make such a debate so simplistic.

          Having said that, I believe whatever decisions are made comes down to the player, and not the position. IMO, if you ask any smart guy in the business this same question, they would probably preface any answer given with "it depends on the player...."

          Also, IMO using the top of the draft to establish good drafting strategy is setting yourself up for failure. In the last 20 years AZ, CLE, and JAX have had the most picks in the top 10 and none would be considered the be model franchises over that time. Their picks make up a good amount of data being used to establish a successful model. So why would we use a system that naturally measures failure as a model to follow to achieve success?

          So complicated a subject
          It has nothing to do with AZ CLE and JAX . It is pure percentages of position picked within the top 15 picks. I find it hard to believe that the MLB , G ,TE RB positions do not produce as many players supposedly "BPA" as the list that I gave. Just by that data alone. Yes it is that simplistic . Position has and does trump best talent. As for a failed system (Pass the ball stop the pass) for most teams in the NFl. It is a failed system . Last year running the ball has shown to be a path to the playoffs just as much or in some cases more so then passing.
          "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

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          • #35
            Originally posted by jimmie ray View Post

            I really don't see the QB position falling into the same criteria, as all the other positions do here:
            1- Very few high pick QBs are actually ready to play day one in the NFL. Some may be forced to, but there are usually little expectations, and patience is key. Others might wait a season or two, depending on what the team already has at that position.
            2- The opposing team must game plan against any QB - from 1rst rounders to UFAs, starter to 3rd string, it doesn't matter.
            3- A better choice is very subjective, or dependent on the team's current or future schemes and needs.
            Just some thoughts, not sure if they address what your subject matter was?
            IMO:
            Most Qbs drafted are failures or career backups, The aspect that they not ready to play day one IMO is of no consequence. A top 15 pick at any position should be ready to play day. one If they are not.
            They were drafted too high in the draft.
            Better choice is not subjective . If a player is drafted that is not the best player available on a teams board . The pick os purley position based. When positions are weighted as some team drafting history suggests, the BPA is passed up. The team is draft BPA by position. And not necessarily BPA.

            It explains why so many good RBs, G, TEs come out the later first and second rounds. They were passed up for a position based draft pick opposed to the best player at the time of the pick. It shows flaws in the way football players are vetted and assessed for value .
            Last edited by TEM; 05-14-2018, 03:23 PM.
            "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

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            • #36
              The salary cap has a big impact on the NFL today. You see that the positions that cost most against the cap to fill in free agency are the positions most often drafted at the top of the draft. If a team regularly spends high picks on low cost positions they will struggle to remain competitive across the board. Taking a RB at 2 means he becomes among the highest paid players at his position in the NFL before he plays a down. A team cannot afford to miss when taking a position like RB this high in the draft.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by jmike View Post
                The salary cap has a big impact on the NFL today. You see that the positions that cost most against the cap to fill in free agency are the positions most often drafted at the top of the draft. If a team regularly spends high picks on low cost positions they will struggle to remain competitive across the board. Taking a RB at 2 means he becomes among the highest paid players at his position in the NFL before he plays a down. A team cannot afford to miss when taking a position like RB this high in the draft.
                Who designates what position is more valuable ? Is the scale that is used accurate?

                According the the SB winners since 97. It is 5 teams. NE Pittsburgh , Denver , Giants , and the Ravens have dominated it for the past 20 years . (All with multiples.) The NFL is a QB driven passing league is a failed model for most of the NFL. It is a system without the parity that the NFl touts. It is a model that chases an illusion.
                "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by TEM View Post

                  It has nothing to do with AZ CLE and JAX . It is pure percentages of position picked within the top 15 picks. I find it hard to believe that the MLB , G ,TE RB positions do not produce as many players supposedly "BPA" as the list that I gave. Just by that data alone. Yes it is that simplistic . Position has and does trump best talent. As for a failed system (Pass the ball stop the pass) for most teams in the NFl. It is a failed system . Last year running the ball has shown to be a path to the playoffs just as much or in some cases more so then passing.
                  CLE has picked top 10 a total of 13 times since 1998. NE, Pitt, Denver, Giants, and Ravens (who you mentioned in another post has dominated the SBs the last 20 years) have picked top 10 a total of 13 times combined! My point was the data collected for positions drafted at the top is being collected from bad franchises. IMO, you cant just take the raw data and stamp "value" on it.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Moecoastie77 View Post

                    CLE has picked top 10 a total of 13 times since 1998. NE, Pitt, Denver, Giants, and Ravens (who you mentioned in another post has dominated the SBs the last 20 years) have picked top 10 a total of 13 times combined! My point was the data collected for positions drafted at the top is being collected from bad franchises. IMO, you cant just take the raw data and stamp "value" on it.

                    I can and it is very simple. the teams that are picking are trying to follow the (Pass the ball stop the pass model). The exact point I am trying to make ( Position is trumping Player) to no avail. Can anyone honestly believe that TEs, RBs, OGs, MLBs hardly ever have a BPA at the top of the draft. It is statically imposable . The only conclusion players are drafted based upon a notion that success is based upon an assumption and not necessarily on them being the best on the board. Or because of the position they play are automatically deemed to not be BPA even if every metric suggests the are.
                    "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by TEM View Post

                      Who designates what position is more valuable ? Is the scale that is used accurate?
                      The General managers based on the amount they pay for different positions in free agency. It is accurate because the contract values are made public and the salary cap cost is calculated. You can disagree that a QB, CB, left tackle or DE cost more than RBs to sign as free agents if you wish, but you would be wrong. Sorry, but this particular fact really isn't up for debate. You could debate their relative value in terms of winning and losing, but that is irrelevant to the point at hand. For a QB to meet value as the #2 pick in the draft as it relates to salary cap ramifications, he only needs to be a back-up QB; since his salary will be about what a vet back-up makes. For a RB to meet value as the #2 pick as it relates to salary cap, he needs to be a top 5 back. That is the break even point for each position. This is why a QB presents more value as a high pick than a RB and why QBs tend to be "overdrafted" while RBs tend to go later than their talent would suggest.

                      Do you have a different explanation as to why QB, DE, LT and CB tend to be picked in the top 10 at a higher rate than other positions?

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by WayBackFan View Post
                        Best player available should be taken regardless of position.

                        Always.

                        Keeps the decision process simple.
                        Thats not the way the Giants talk about drafting, i.e, they have a horizontal board that factors in player value (position) against their vertical board.

                        However, apparently they just draft using their vertical board so who knows? In theory alone, I agree with their process

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by CGYgiant View Post

                          Thats not the way the Giants talk about drafting, i.e, they have a horizontal board that factors in player value (position) against their vertical board.

                          However, apparently they just draft using their vertical board so who knows? In theory alone, I agree with their process
                          Hopefully, they know what they are doing.

                          "Don't cry because it's over. Smile because it happened." -- Dr. Seuss

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by CGYgiant View Post

                            Thats not the way the Giants talk about drafting, i.e, they have a horizontal board that factors in player value (position) against their vertical board.

                            However, apparently they just draft using their vertical board so who knows? In theory alone, I agree with their process
                            This year I do also previous years not so much.
                            "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by jmike View Post

                              The General managers based on the amount they pay for different positions in free agency. It is accurate because the contract values are made public and the salary cap cost is calculated. You can disagree that a QB, CB, left tackle or DE cost more than RBs to sign as free agents if you wish, but you would be wrong. Sorry, but this particular fact really isn't up for debate. You could debate their relative value in terms of winning and losing, but that is irrelevant to the point at hand. For a QB to meet value as the #2 pick in the draft as it relates to salary cap ramifications, he only needs to be a back-up QB; since his salary will be about what a vet back-up makes. For a RB to meet value as the #2 pick as it relates to salary cap, he needs to be a top 5 back. That is the break even point for each position. This is why a QB presents more value as a high pick than a RB and why QBs tend to be "overdrafted" while RBs tend to go later than their talent would suggest.

                              Do you have a different explanation as to why QB, DE, LT and CB tend to be picked in the top 10 at a higher rate than other positions?
                              This is what I do not get with some of your posts. You add parameters to the topic . This was purely based on drafting. You can say all you want on how it is based upon cap ramifications. A lot Teams go into the draft with copious amounts of cap space and still follow the model.




                              "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad." Darrell Royal

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                              • #45
                                RB makes the most immediate impact if the OL is worth a darn.
                                Long Live the King

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