Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Offseason Plan (Free Agency and Draft) 1.1

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Offseason Plan (Free Agency and Draft) 1.1

    Hey Everyone,

    I tried to put together a mock offseason with as accurate numbers as I could. I may have over-estimated some contracts, but I figured it'd be more realistic this way. For example, I'm not sure how much our ERFA will make, so I just went with the max (I believe) of 600k. I'm also not an expert at predicting salaries, but I tried my best. I spent most of the available free agency money on re-signing our own players, such as backups and depth players. This surprisingly took up more of our cap space than I expected (although the numbers may not work out this way due to contract breakdowns and such- the cap hits can be staggered and such).

    The first complaint I know will be that I have JPP and Hankins both leaving. My reasoning is this: If JPP really wants between 16-18 mil a year, that basically equates to a left tackle (Whitworth) and a mid-tier guard salary. Considering our heavy need for these positions, I just don't see that working out. The draft is stacked at DE, and I think Okwara showed enough (with the hopeful progression of Odighizuwa) to be average at that spot. The way the salary cap works this year you just cant have studs at every position. We just put a lot of money into DE and DT last year in free agency and I just can't see us spending even more on that this year. I think it would make much more sense to allow our defense to take a step back in terms of our DL talent (and re-stock in the draft), and bolster our offensive line. Again, this is my personal opinion.

    I have us signing Whitworth in free agency (11 mil a year maybe too much? he made 9 last year). Considering he is really the only left tackle (and a good one) available, I feel we will have a lot of competition and may need to overpay him to get him (Even though he is 35).

    If we were able to re-structure or save some money with some cap maneuvering, we could also probably afford a good guard as well, such as Warford or TJ Lang. I did not include that here though as the numbers did not work out.

    Our draft class takes about 5.5 mil according to overthecap, so I accounted for that as well.

    I know people like to theorize about off-seasons, and doing this was extremely eye opening in terms of what we can or cannot do. Again, the salaries may not be accurate as I don't claim to be a financials expert in the nfl and projecting salaries. I will attach screen shots of my excel spread sheets so you can basically look at my re-signings, my FA signing (whitworth), my mock draft, and my final roster. The red in the final roster would be cuts/practice squad guys.

    For the lazy ones who will argue my offseason without looking at the money breakdown, here's what I got:

    Re-sign: Keenan Robinson (LB), Marshall Newhouse (OT), Mark Herzlich (ST), Zak DeOssie (ST), Robbie Gould (K), Josh Johnson (QB), Will Tye (TE), Trevin Wade (CB), Anthony Johnson (DT), Orleans Darkwa (HB), Kerry Wynn (DE), Robert Thomas (DT), Matt LaCosse (TE)

    Sign: Andrew Whitworth (LT)

    Draft:
    1) Taco Charlton- DE, Michigan
    2) Zay Jones- WR, East Carolina
    3) Jake Butt- TE, Michigan
    4) Jarron Jones- DT, Notre Dame
    5) Johnny Caspers- OG, Stanford
    6) Damontae Kazee- CB, San Diego State

    Starters:

    QB: Manning
    WR: OBJ, Zay Jones, Shepard
    TE: Will Johnson/Jake Butt
    LT: Andrew Whitworth
    LG: Justin Pugh
    C: Weston Richburg
    RG: Bobby Hart/ Johnny Caspers
    RT: Ereck Flowers

    DE: Vernon, Taco Charlton
    DT: Jay Bromley, Snacks
    LB: Casillas/Robinson, Goodson, Kennard
    CB: Jenkins, Apple, DRC

    S: Thompson, Collins

    K: Gould
    P: Wing
    LS: DeOssie

    Here's a link to the spreadsheet:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AlITjYF1O3DOvWsCykLfmkJiXQQI
    Last edited by ELIte4MVP; 02-08-2017, 01:03 PM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by ELIte4MVP View Post
    Hey Everyone,

    I tried to put together a mock offseason with as accurate numbers as I could. I may have over-estimated some contracts, but I figured it'd be more realistic this way. For example, I'm not sure how much our ERFA will make, so I just went with the max (I believe) of 600k. I'm also not an expert at predicting salaries, but I tried my best. I spent most of the available free agency money on re-signing our own players, such as backups and depth players. This surprisingly took up more of our cap space than I expected (although the numbers may not work out this way due to contract breakdowns and such- the cap hits can be staggered and such).

    The first complaint I know will be that I have JPP and Hankins both leaving. My reasoning is this: If JPP really wants between 16-18 mil a year, that basically equates to a left tackle (Whitworth) and a mid-tier guard salary. Considering our heavy need for these positions, I just don't see that working out. The draft is stacked at DE, and I think Okwara showed enough (with the hopeful progression of Odighizuwa) to be average at that spot. The way the salary cap works this year you just cant have studs at every position. We just put a lot of money into DE and DT last year in free agency and I just can't see us spending even more on that this year. I think it would make much more sense to allow our defense to take a step back in terms of our DL talent (and re-stock in the draft), and bolster our offensive line. Again, this is my personal opinion.

    I have us signing Whitworth in free agency (11 mil a year maybe too much? he made 9 last year). Considering he is really the only left tackle (and a good one) available, I feel we will have a lot of competition and may need to overpay him to get him (Even though he is 35).

    If we were able to re-structure or save some money with some cap maneuvering, we could also probably afford a good guard as well, such as Warford or TJ Lang. I did not include that here though as the numbers did not work out.

    Our draft class takes about 5.5 mil according to overthecap, so I accounted for that as well.

    I know people like to theorize about off-seasons, and doing this was extremely eye opening in terms of what we can or cannot do. Again, the salaries may not be accurate as I don't claim to be a financials expert in the nfl and projecting salaries. I will attach screen shots of my excel spread sheets so you can basically look at my re-signings, my FA signing (whitworth), my mock draft, and my final roster. The red in the final roster would be cuts/practice squad guys.

    For the lazy ones who will argue my offseason without looking at the money breakdown, here's what I got:

    Re-sign: Keenan Robinson (LB), Marshall Newhouse (OT), Mark Herzlich (ST), Zak DeOssie (ST), Robbie Gould (K), Josh Johnson (QB), Will Tye (TE), Trevin Wade (CB), Anthony Johnson (DT), Orleans Darkwa (HB), Kerry Wynn (DE), Robert Thomas (DT), Matt LaCosse (TE)

    Sign: Andrew Whitworth (LT)

    Draft:
    1) Taco Charlton- DE, Michigan
    2) Zay Jones- WR, East Carolina
    3) Jake Butt- TE, Michigan
    4) Jarron Jones- DT, Notre Dame
    5) Johnny Caspers- OG, Stanford
    6) Damontae Kazee- CB, San Diego State

    Starters:

    QB: Manning
    WR: OBJ, Zay Jones, Shepard
    TE: Will Johnson/Jake Butt
    LT: Andrew Whitworth
    LG: Justin Pugh
    C: Weston Richburg
    RG: Bobby Hart/ Johnny Caspers
    RT: Ereck Flowers

    DE: Vernon, Taco Charlton
    DT: Jay Bromley, Snacks
    LB: Casillas/Robinson, Goodson, Kennard
    CB: Jenkins, Apple, DRC

    S: Thompson, Collins

    K: Gould
    P: Wing
    LS: DeOssie

    Here's a link to the spreadsheet:

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AlITjYF1O3DOvWsCykLfmkJiXQQI
    I would not be okay with Hart starting at RG and Caspers has retired from football. Bring in Whitworth to play LT and Flowers goes to RT with Hart to compete there. Franchise JPP and if he wont sign trade him to a team that will give him a long term deal. Let Hankins go and draft his replacement. At RG, I would draft Dan Feeney and he starts. He is a top level G prospect and is an upgrade over Jerry.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by tdawg1413 View Post
      I would not be okay with Hart starting at RG and Caspers has retired from football. Bring in Whitworth to play LT and Flowers goes to RT with Hart to compete there. Franchise JPP and if he wont sign trade him to a team that will give him a long term deal. Let Hankins go and draft his replacement. At RG, I would draft Dan Feeney and he starts. He is a top level G prospect and is an upgrade over Jerry.
      It would seem odd to sign Whitworth since all our free agent signing last year were younger players. It's one thing to guarantee big money to a 26 year old, quite another to do it for a 35 year old.

      I personally don't see it, not for him or even going after Staley.
      Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
        It would seem odd to sign Whitworth since all our free agent signing last year were younger players. It's one thing to guarantee big money to a 26 year old, quite another to do it for a 35 year old.

        I personally don't see it, not for him or even going after Staley.
        I do agree that it veers from their typical strategy. I just honestly don't see anyone besides Whitworth (in FA or the draft) who could come in and play LT at a quality that meets the price tag. Like if we were to trade for someone, or sign Rieff or someone who isn't really a stud LT is that really worth the price? The draft arguably doesn't have any plug and play left tackles.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by tdawg1413 View Post
          I would not be okay with Hart starting at RG and Caspers has retired from football. Bring in Whitworth to play LT and Flowers goes to RT with Hart to compete there. Franchise JPP and if he wont sign trade him to a team that will give him a long term deal. Let Hankins go and draft his replacement. At RG, I would draft Dan Feeney and he starts. He is a top level G prospect and is an upgrade over Jerry.
          Damn I didn't know Caspers retired. I liked him. I'll have to update this based off of that at least. I'm not sure we can afford both Whitworth and franchising JPP. We have, with these cuts, about 27.5 million in cap space (that takes the draft pick money into account). JPP franchise would be about 17 million. Whitworth, if he plays at what he made last year (9 mil), that leaves us with 1 million to fill the rest of our roster..

          Comment


          • #6
            We need help more help on the OL.

            Sign an OL in FA and also draft one early.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by ELIte4MVP View Post
              I do agree that it veers from their typical strategy. I just honestly don't see anyone besides Whitworth (in FA or the draft) who could come in and play LT at a quality that meets the price tag. Like if we were to trade for someone, or sign Rieff or someone who isn't really a stud LT is that really worth the price? The draft arguably doesn't have any plug and play left tackles.
              We are in a tough position.
              The other three teams in our division have young QB's. (I'm assuming Cousins gets a long term deal in Washington). We have a pretty young team except the MOST important position.,,,,,and no one waiting in the wings.
              So do we play the short term game for the next year or two or do we continue to take the long view? Should we blow a ton on a short term fix like Whitworth?

              Is LT really the only thing standing between us and SB glory? I tend to doubt it. If Reese can't find a younger solution at LT he may not pull the trigger. He'll take a lot of crap of course but it still may be the best option.

              I say move Pugh to LT where he would probably be "serviceable". That's better than what we've had for years. Move Flowers to LG or RT.
              Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by TCHOF View Post
                We need help more help on the OL.

                Sign an OL in FA and also draft one early.
                I think it's entirely possible we also sign a guard like warford or lang like I said in my post. We would need to be a little creative with the cap in order to free up a couple extra million. The plan I had has about 5 million extra, we probably would need to free up another 2 or 3 million to afford a guy like warford or lang

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                  We are in a tough position.
                  The other three teams in our division have young QB's. (I'm assuming Cousins gets a long term deal in Washington). We have a pretty young team except the MOST important position.,,,,,and no one waiting in the wings.
                  So do we play the short term game for the next year or two or do we continue to take the long view? Should we blow a ton on a short term fix like Whitworth?

                  Is LT really the only thing standing between us and SB glory? I tend to doubt it. If Reese can't find a younger solution at LT he may not pull the trigger. He'll take a lot of crap of course but it still may be the best option.

                  I say move Pugh to LT where he would probably be "serviceable". That's better than what we've had for years. Move Flowers to LG or RT.
                  That's an interesting take. Personally, I think there is value to Whitworth because him on a 2 year deal would likely coincide with Eli retiring/being replaced. So his cap money would free up along with Eli's money going off the books, which would allow us to spend more on other positions while (hopefully) we get a QB on a rookie contract.

                  That plan would take a huge hit if we are unable to find a good young QB in the draft next year (ideally) and us having to throw free agent money at a QB to replace eli

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                    It would seem odd to sign Whitworth since all our free agent signing last year were younger players. It's one thing to guarantee big money to a 26 year old, quite another to do it for a 35 year old.

                    I personally don't see it, not for him or even going after Staley.
                    I think we could. Last year, we were multiple quality players away from contending so it wouldn't have made sense to pick up an old guy. Now we're probably 2-3 decent players away from being a serious threat. With us being so close to both a deep playoff run and the end of Eli's career, I could see is bringing in s guy like Whitworth.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                      I say move Pugh to LT where he would probably be "serviceable". That's better than what we've had for years. Move Flowers to LG or RT.
                      I've thought and posted this before, but its still a tough call. You could end up with 2 OL positions playing worse than last year.

                      Will be interesting to see what happens.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by JJJJJ
                        1 - Resign JPP (must)

                        2 - Go hard after Whitworth

                        - Let Hankins walk. Overrated.

                        - Resign John Jerry. Underrated. Won't cost $10+ million per like Warford/Lang/Zeitler.
                        False. Jerry is a bum.
                        NFL Draft (Realistic Hope):

                        Rd 1
                        Garrett Bolles - OT
                        David Njoku - TE
                        Zach Cunningham - OLB

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          why do people want to automatically put Flowers at RT and feel comfortable with that, what has Flowers done so far to make anyone comfortable with him...he makes me nervous on every snap of the ball...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by JesseJames View Post
                            why do people want to automatically put Flowers at RT and feel comfortable with that, what has Flowers done so far to make anyone comfortable with him...he makes me nervous on every snap of the ball...
                            I dont think anyone wants to. There isnt much choice in the matter. They are not releasing or benching him. So RT is the most obvious choice as I also dont think they will move him inside. I am in the group that just thinks Flowers is a bad football player...at any position. But we are stuck with him for now.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by tdawg1413 View Post
                              I dont think anyone wants to. There isnt much choice in the matter. They are not releasing or benching him. So RT is the most obvious choice as I also dont think they will move him inside. I am in the group that just thinks Flowers is a bad football player...at any position. But we are stuck with him for now.
                              I feel that by moving Flowers to RT we will just be switching the problem to the right side of the line and there are plenty of speed rushers that come from the right side..

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X