Since this has been discussed here and there in different threads, let's talk about the strategy of how quickly you should be trying to score in this situation.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that you can control when the touchdown is scored. We know that the two-point conversion succeeds 50% of the time and an onside kick would succeed 20% of the time. Let's also assume that if we recover the onside kick with a minute to go, we have a 60% chance of scoring; and if GB gets the ball back with a minute to go, they have a 50% chance of scoring. I'll say overtime is a 50/50 outcome.

Here are the ways we can win, for each choice:

Score Quickly:

2 succeeds --> GB doesn't score --> We score in OT (Win - 12.5%)

2 fails --> Onside kick succeeds --> We score (Win - 6%)

Score Slowly (i.e. as time expires):

2 succeeds --> We score in OT (Win - 25%)

The tradeoff is basically whether we think the onside kick + field goal is more likely than the Packers NOT scoring, and then us winning in overtime. The percentages suggest that scoring slowly is the better choice.

We can debate later whether rushing or passing had a higher chance of actually yielding a touchdown.

Let's assume for the sake of argument that you can control when the touchdown is scored. We know that the two-point conversion succeeds 50% of the time and an onside kick would succeed 20% of the time. Let's also assume that if we recover the onside kick with a minute to go, we have a 60% chance of scoring; and if GB gets the ball back with a minute to go, they have a 50% chance of scoring. I'll say overtime is a 50/50 outcome.

Here are the ways we can win, for each choice:

Score Quickly:

2 succeeds --> GB doesn't score --> We score in OT (Win - 12.5%)

2 fails --> Onside kick succeeds --> We score (Win - 6%)

Score Slowly (i.e. as time expires):

2 succeeds --> We score in OT (Win - 25%)

The tradeoff is basically whether we think the onside kick + field goal is more likely than the Packers NOT scoring, and then us winning in overtime. The percentages suggest that scoring slowly is the better choice.

We can debate later whether rushing or passing had a higher chance of actually yielding a touchdown.

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