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Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

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  • Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

    Since this has been discussed here and there in different threads, let's talk about the strategy of how quickly you should be trying to score in this situation.

    Let's assume for the sake of argument that you can control when the touchdown is scored. We know that the two-point conversion succeeds 50% of the time and an onside kick would succeed 20% of the time. Let's also assume that if we recover the onside kick with a minute to go, we have a 60% chance of scoring; and if GB gets the ball back with a minute to go, they have a 50% chance of scoring. I'll say overtime is a 50/50 outcome.

    Here are the ways we can win, for each choice:

    Score Quickly:
    2 succeeds --> GB doesn't score --> We score in OT (Win - 12.5%)
    2 fails --> Onside kick succeeds --> We score (Win - 6%)

    Score Slowly (i.e. as time expires):
    2 succeeds --> We score in OT (Win - 25%)

    The tradeoff is basically whether we think the onside kick + field goal is more likely than the Packers NOT scoring, and then us winning in overtime. The percentages suggest that scoring slowly is the better choice.

    We can debate later whether rushing or passing had a higher chance of actually yielding a touchdown.

  • #2
    Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?



    IMO you have to score and get the two point conversion and if you dont get the 2 pointer you need to have time on the clock for an on side kick. The Giants played it well I thought.







    "Measure Twice......Cut Once"
    You couldn't be more full of **** if you were break dancing in a Port-a-Potty.......Kruunch

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?



      They did it right. If they dont convert the 2 pt conversion, they still have time for the onside kick recovery and a FG attempt.




      What I did not like was the playcalling. 3 straight$#%@ passes on the 2 yard line! Is Gilbride that ******ed?!




      Also no one is saying how well we were running the ball yesterday, and then gave up on it again. Gilbride is garbage. So is Baas apparently. Get him out and we can run the ball.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

        I see what you're saying, but my point is that:

        Yes, saving time on the clock gives you time to get the onside kick and field goal if necessary, but it ALSO gives time for the other guys to score if it's not necessary. If you're arguing for scoring quickly, you're arguing that:

        (2 fail --> onside kick succeed --> FG) + (2 succeed --> GB not scoring --> us winning in OT) > (2 succeed --> us winning in OT)

        I just don't think the percentages bear that out.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?



          [quote user="Tenspro2002"]I see what you're saying, but my point is that: Yes, saving time on the clock gives you time to get the onside kick and field goal if necessary, but it ALSO gives time for the other guys to score if it's not necessary. If you're arguing for scoring quickly, you're arguing that: (2 fail --> onside kick succeed --> FG) + (2 succeed --> GB not scoring --> us winning in OT) > (2 succeed --> us winning in OT) I just don't think the percentages bear that out.[/quote]




          What happens if we drain the clock, then miss the 2pt conversion with about 5 seconds left. Then we kick onside and get it and have no shot. Id take that chance of scoring now everytime. Defense has to stop the Packers that finaldrive. They started on the 20.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

            [quote user="GameTime"]


            IMO you have to score and get the two point conversion and if you dont get the 2 pointer you need to have time on the clock for an on side kick. The Giants played it well I thought.










            [/quote]




            This.




            And to add to it, when down by 8, you have to score however and whenever you can.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?



              the Giants did what they needed to do, score.




              it really didnt matter how much time was left. either the Pack was going to score the winning points or the defense would hold for ot.




              Rodgers just happened to get them down to kick the fg. nobodys fault imo1




              sigpic

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?



                [quote user="Tenspro2002"]I see what you're saying, but my point is that: Yes, saving time on the clock gives you time to get the onside kick and field goal if necessary, but it ALSO gives time for the other guys to score if it's not necessary. If you're arguing for scoring quickly, you're arguing that: (2 fail --> onside kick succeed --> FG) + (2 succeed --> GB not scoring --> us winning in OT) > (2 succeed --> us winning in OT) I just don't think the percentages bear that out.[/quote]




                A) Where are you getting your percentages from? Just asking, because they could just be arbitrary.
                B) Where are the percentages for driving from the 20 into FG range (much less a 30 yard FG) with under 1 minute left on the clock? I'd imagine those odds aren't very good. I think to actually look at this scenario you have to assess those odds, which are sucpisciously missing.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                  [quote user="Drez"]

                  [quote user="Tenspro2002"]I see what you're saying, but my point is that: Yes, saving time on the clock gives you time to get the onside kick and field goal if necessary, but it ALSO gives time for the other guys to score if it's not necessary. If you're arguing for scoring quickly, you're arguing that: (2 fail --> onside kick succeed --> FG) + (2 succeed --> GB not scoring --> us winning in OT) > (2 succeed --> us winning in OT) I just don't think the percentages bear that out.[/quote]




                  A) Where are you getting your percentages from? Just asking, because they could just be arbitrary.
                  B) Where are the percentages for driving from the 20 into FG range (much less a 30 yard FG) with under 1 minute left on the clock? I'd imagine those odds aren't very good. I think to actually look at this scenario you have to assess those odds, which are sucpisciously missing.

                  [/quote]

                  % for expected onsides kick recovery is pretty dismal, I think its 10-15% if I remember correctly. I'm pretty sure the best offense in the league who had already scored 35 points getting into field goal range with a minute left and a timeout is MUCH higher than recovering an expected onsides kick plus getting into FG range.

                  I think what you guys are missing is that you can't assume we score. We need to score a TD first before any of this can happen so we need to leave the playbook open, not think about killing the clock or saving time or anything.

                  The one mistake that I HATED was running a play before the two minute warning though.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                    [quote user="Tenspro2002"]Since this has been discussed here and there in different threads, let's talk about the strategy of how quickly you should be trying to score in this situation.

                    Let's assume for the sake of argument that you can control when the touchdown is scored. We know that the two-point conversion succeeds 50% of the time and an onside kick would succeed 20% of the time. Let's also assume that if we recover the onside kick with a minute to go, we have a 60% chance of scoring; and if GB gets the ball back with a minute to go, they have a 50% chance of scoring. I'll say overtime is a 50/50 outcome.

                    Here are the ways we can win, for each choice:

                    Score Quickly:
                    2 succeeds --> GB doesn't score --> We score in OT (Win - 12.5%)
                    2 fails --> Onside kick succeeds --> We score (Win - 6%)

                    Score Slowly (i.e. as time expires):
                    2 succeeds --> We score in OT (Win - 25%)

                    The tradeoff is basically whether we think the onside kick + field goal is more likely than the Packers NOT scoring, and then us winning in overtime. The percentages suggest that scoring slowly is the better choice.

                    We can debate later whether rushing or passing had a higher chance of actually yielding a touchdown.[/quote]

                    I would adjust those numbers:

                    40% 2pt conversion - I think that's NFL average, ours is probably somewhat higher.
                    65% we score a FG from the 45-50 yard line
                    40% GB scores from their own 20 (25-30 yards of extra field is pretty important with a minute left).

                    so with those numbers:

                    score slowly:

                    2 succeeds -> GB doesn't score - 12%
                    2 fails -> onsides succeeds - 8%

                    20% total

                    score quickly:

                    2 succeeds -> We score in OT - 20%

                    My numbers might go too far in the other direction. But then again, we probably have some incentive to avoid OT since GB is a better team than we are, with a better kicker, so we're likely less than 50% in OT.

                    EDIT: Took the time to look it up, NFL average for 2pt conversions is actually 48%. That makes the numbers more clear cut. 50% is probably accurate.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                      [quote user="Drez"]

                      [quote user="Tenspro2002"]I see what you're saying, but my point is that: Yes, saving time on the clock gives you time to get the onside kick and field goal if necessary, but it ALSO gives time for the other guys to score if it's not necessary. If you're arguing for scoring quickly, you're arguing that: (2 fail --> onside kick succeed --> FG) + (2 succeed --> GB not scoring --> us winning in OT) > (2 succeed --> us winning in OT) I just don't think the percentages bear that out.[/quote]




                      A) Where are you getting your percentages from? Just asking, because they could just be arbitrary.
                      B) Where are the percentages for driving from the 20 into FG range (much less a 30 yard FG) with under 1 minute left on the clock? I'd imagine those odds aren't very good. I think to actually look at this scenario you have to assess those odds, which are sucpisciously missing.

                      [/quote]

                      A) Very fair question. The 50% for the 2-point conversion and the 20% for onside kicks (which feels generous to me) I found from reliable-looking NFL analysis sources. Everything else was an assumption, and you can debate whether you should slide those percentages up and down.

                      B) Again, fair. This was just an assumption, which for yesterday's scenario I figured the Packers had a 50% chance to drive into FG range and score. I don't know a good way to estimate it beyond a guestimate.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                        [quote user="jhamburg"][quote user="Tenspro2002"]Since this has been discussed here and there in different threads, let's talk about the strategy of how quickly you should be trying to score in this situation.

                        Let's assume for the sake of argument that you can control when the touchdown is scored. We know that the two-point conversion succeeds 50% of the time and an onside kick would succeed 20% of the time. Let's also assume that if we recover the onside kick with a minute to go, we have a 60% chance of scoring; and if GB gets the ball back with a minute to go, they have a 50% chance of scoring. I'll say overtime is a 50/50 outcome.

                        Here are the ways we can win, for each choice:

                        Score Quickly:
                        2 succeeds --> GB doesn't score --> We score in OT (Win - 12.5%)
                        2 fails --> Onside kick succeeds --> We score (Win - 6%)

                        Score Slowly (i.e. as time expires):
                        2 succeeds --> We score in OT (Win - 25%)

                        The tradeoff is basically whether we think the onside kick + field goal is more likely than the Packers NOT scoring, and then us winning in overtime. The percentages suggest that scoring slowly is the better choice.

                        We can debate later whether rushing or passing had a higher chance of actually yielding a touchdown.[/quote]

                        I would adjust those numbers:

                        40% 2pt conversion - I think that's NFL average, ours is probably somewhat higher.
                        65% we score a FG from the 45-50 yard line
                        40% GB scores from their own 20 (25-30 yards of extra field is pretty important with a minute left).

                        so with those numbers:

                        score slowly:

                        2 succeeds -> GB doesn't score - 12%
                        2 fails -> onsides succeeds - 8%

                        20% total

                        score quickly:

                        2 succeeds -> We score in OT - 20%

                        My numbers might go too far in the other direction. But then again, we probably have some incentive to avoid OT since GB is a better team than we are, with a better kicker, so we're likely less than 50% in OT.[/quote]

                        If we use your numbers, then it's exactly even. It's even more ridiculous when you think that a pretty sizable piece of the pie for us winning the game could have come from a failed 2-point conversion, an onside kick, and a field goal. I don't think *anybody* was thinking about that at the time.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                          [quote user="Tenspro2002"][quote user="jhamburg"][quote user="Tenspro2002"]Since this has been discussed here and there in different threads, let's talk about the strategy of how quickly you should be trying to score in this situation.

                          Let's assume for the sake of argument that you can control when the touchdown is scored. We know that the two-point conversion succeeds 50% of the time and an onside kick would succeed 20% of the time. Let's also assume that if we recover the onside kick with a minute to go, we have a 60% chance of scoring; and if GB gets the ball back with a minute to go, they have a 50% chance of scoring. I'll say overtime is a 50/50 outcome.

                          Here are the ways we can win, for each choice:

                          Score Quickly:
                          2 succeeds --> GB doesn't score --> We score in OT (Win - 12.5%)
                          2 fails --> Onside kick succeeds --> We score (Win - 6%)

                          Score Slowly (i.e. as time expires):
                          2 succeeds --> We score in OT (Win - 25%)

                          The tradeoff is basically whether we think the onside kick + field goal is more likely than the Packers NOT scoring, and then us winning in overtime. The percentages suggest that scoring slowly is the better choice.

                          We can debate later whether rushing or passing had a higher chance of actually yielding a touchdown.[/quote]

                          I would adjust those numbers:

                          40% 2pt conversion - I think that's NFL average, ours is probably somewhat higher.
                          65% we score a FG from the 45-50 yard line
                          40% GB scores from their own 20 (25-30 yards of extra field is pretty important with a minute left).

                          so with those numbers:

                          score slowly:

                          2 succeeds -> GB doesn't score - 12%
                          2 fails -> onsides succeeds - 8%

                          20% total

                          score quickly:

                          2 succeeds -> We score in OT - 20%

                          My numbers might go too far in the other direction. But then again, we probably have some incentive to avoid OT since GB is a better team than we are, with a better kicker, so we're likely less than 50% in OT.[/quote]

                          If we use your numbers, then it's exactly even. It's even more ridiculous when you think that a pretty sizable piece of the pie for us winning the game could have come from a failed 2-point conversion, an onside kick, and a field goal. I don't think *anybody* was thinking about that at the time.
                          [/quote]

                          Right, I think your analysis is correct. But you have to consider a third option, which is to run your best plays to score a TD and ignore the clock. If you say "we need to run to kill the clock" or "we need to pass to stop the clock", obviously that has to decrease your chances of scoring the TD in the first place.

                          Either way, I think you have proved at least that intentionally scoring quick to leave the onsides kick option is the worst of all options.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                            [quote user="GameTime"]

                            IMO you have to score and get the two point conversion and if you dont get the 2 pointer you need to have time on the clock for an on side kick. The Giants played it well I thought.







                            [/quote]

                            Agreed for the most part. Except that bunch formation pass incomplete. Shoulda ran it there. But otherwise go with what works which is Eli passing it.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Down 8, 1:00 left; Score Quickly, or Milk the Clock?

                              [quote user="jhamburg"]Either way, I think you have proved at least that intentionally scoring quick to leave the onsides kick option is the worst of all options.[/quote]

                              That's really all I was getting at.

                              Separately, I would argue that running the ball -- especially how we had been moving it against their defense -- had a better chance of working than passing in a crowded goal-line scenario.

                              With the pass, the negative catastrophic plays (sack, interception) are far more likely than with the run (fumble). And, of course, there's always the option to pass on later downs.

                              Comment

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