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  • Eli Theory



    As I've watched Eli over his career he has always been more comfortable in the 2 minute offense. Even in drives right before the end of the first half when the game wasn't on the line heseems to be better when he can establish a rythym in the hurry-up offense. I think Eli has the ability to run an offense like Peyton ran in Indianapolis or like Brees runs in N.O. It won't happen, but if Gilbride were to open the offense all the way I think we could have be an even more potent offense. I think Eli's picks would go way down also.




    Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

  • #2
    Re: Eli Theory

    I have agreed with this theory for quite some time now. It doesn't take a genius to see that Eli is a beast when it comes to the 2 minute drill. I would love to see them just let him do his thing. But we just won a super bowl with the current formula so I'm ok with how things are. lol

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Eli Theory

      [quote user="B&RWarrior"]


      As I've watched Eli over his career he has always been more comfortable in the 2 minute offense. Even in drives right before the end of the first half when the game wasn't on the line heseems to be better when he can establish a rythym in the hurry-up offense. I think Eli has the ability to run an offense like Peyton ran in Indianapolis or like Brees runs in N.O. It won't happen, but if Gilbride were to open the offense all the way I think we could have be an even more potent offense. I think Eli's picks would go way down also.







      [/quote]




      Part of the consideration for the 2 minute offense is the way defenses play as well. Defenses generally play softer in order to trade yards for seconds. They don't do that in other parts of the game.

      Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Eli Theory

        Vacchiano wrote a piece on this last year: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/gia...ometimes-it-is

        Gilbride:
        “It’s something that I think can be effective as a change of tempo (in other parts of the game),"

        "I don’t think it’s a fantasy and I think you have to be careful. We’re trying to help the defense. We’re trying to hold onto the ball and slow the game down so that we’re on the field as much as we can. If you’re not careful, that sometimes can backfire.”

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Eli Theory



          but if you do it all the time, it won't be as difficultto defendat those most critical times and you could wear out your defence




          but i will say, in his own way, Eli is slowly taking more and more responsibility ... i won't pretend to know how it all goes down ... but don't think for a second that Eli is given a set in stone, very specific, run it one way and one way only type play very often ... i bet he gets a general play, reads the D and then calls out a few tweaks




          and, of course, he doesn't hesitate to audible completely out of a play depending on his D reads




          OMAHA, OMAHA ... man how many more months ... hmmm, 3 for preseason, 5 for regular season

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Eli Theory

            [quote user="G-Man67"]


            but if you do it all the time, it won't be as difficultto defendat those most critical times and you could wear out your defence




            but i will say, in his own way, Eli is slowly taking more and more responsibility ... i won't pretend to know how it all goes down ... but don't think for a second that Eli is given a set in stone, very specific, run it one way and one way only type play very often ... i bet he gets a general play, reads the D and then calls out a few tweaks




            and, of course, he doesn't hesitate to audible completely out of a play depending on his D reads




            OMAHA, OMAHA ... man how many more months ... hmmm, 3 for preseason, 5 for regular season




            [/quote]




            I think OMAHA is a signal that the play clock is winding down.

            Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Eli Theory



              [quote user="G-Man67"]




              "but if you do it all the time, it won't be as difficultto defendat those most critical times and you could wear out your defence" [/quote]




              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




              B&R Warrior




              Didn't the Colts do it all the time with success. I think Gilbride has had experience with wide-open offenses likewhen he waswith the Houston Oilers. I think he could make it work if he tried.

              Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

              http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Eli Theory

                [quote user="Morehead State"][quote user="G-Man67"]


                but if you do it all the time, it won't be as difficultto defendat those most critical times and you could wear out your defence




                but i will say, in his own way, Eli is slowly taking more and more responsibility ... i won't pretend to know how it all goes down ... but don't think for a second that Eli is given a set in stone, very specific, run it one way and one way only type play very often ... i bet he gets a general play, reads the D and then calls out a few tweaks




                and, of course, he doesn't hesitate to audible completely out of a play depending on his D reads




                OMAHA, OMAHA ... man how many more months ... hmmm, 3 for preseason, 5 for regular season




                [/quote]




                I think OMAHA is a signal that the play clock is winding down.




                [/quote]




                haha, yeah that was revealed this past year




                i was just getting myself pumped up []

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Eli Theory

                  i'd run it until we get a lead. then i'd slow it down a lil bit.

                  and MS, perhaps its the way defenses are playing their defense in the 2 min situations, but I think part of the reason it works so well, is that the d personnel is going to remain the same, and most times the d is going to be in the same coverage bc i dont think the defensive play caller is gonna want to change up the plays in a rush which could easily lead to a break down in the defensive play bc some players didnt hear the new call...

                  its a myriad of things but i do believe that eli is so successful at it bc he gets to see what the defense is doing and knows it wont change up so he has en even better understanding of the weak spots in the d...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Eli Theory



                    [quote user="Flip Empty"]Vacchiano wrote a piece on this last year: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/gia...ometimes-it-is Gilbride: “It’s something that I think can be effective as a change of tempo (in other parts of the game)," "I don’t think it’s a fantasy and I think you have to be careful. We’re trying to help the defense. We’re trying to hold onto the ball and slow the game down so that we’re on the field as much as we can. If you’re not careful, that sometimes can backfire.”[/quote]




                    Gilbride summed it up pretty well and I agree completely with him. Remember we don't play in a dome or warm weather and our current style is more conducive for the late Nov and Dec games.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Eli Theory

                      well since they won 2 superbowls and could of won a third i have to trust there is a reason why they not running it all the time.
                      The stats might go up but not the wins.
                      defenses arent stupid they would adjust no matter what
                      what happens when the cold weather and wind comes . You just cant turn it on.
                      On defense would get tired .
                      it might work better in spurts and would expose our weaknesses

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Eli Theory

                        I'd be fine with Eli calling the plays.

                        But this up tempo stuff is overrated. People act like its some sort of magic bullet that guarantees touchdowns.

                        We got into during the seattle game and got shut down.
                        My 5 year old son right before the kickoff of the Super Bowl 46: Dad, are the Giants gonna win?

                        Burier: Yes.

                        My 5 year old son right before the kickoff of Super Bowl 46: Do you promise?

                        Burier: Yes. I promise.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Eli Theory



                          [quote user="burier"]I'd be fine with Eli calling the plays. But this up tempo stuff is overrated. People act like its some sort of magic bullet that guarantees touchdowns. We got into during the seattle game and got shut down.[/quote]




                          It doesn't look overrated when the Saints are blowing us out.

                          Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

                          http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Eli Theory



                            [quote user="giantsfan420"]i'd run it until we get a lead. then i'd slow it down a lil bit. and MS, perhaps its the way defenses are playing their defense in the 2 min situations, but I think part of the reason it works so well, is that the d personnel is going to remain the same, and most times the d is going to be in the same coverage bc i dont think the defensive play caller is gonna want to change up the plays in a rush which could easily lead to a break down in the defensive play bc some players didnt hear the new call... its a myriad of things but i do believe that eli is so successful at it bc he gets to see what the defense is doing and knows it wont change up so he has en even better understanding of the weak spots in the d...[/quote]




                            Its true and if we were to run a hurry up like Peyton does, Eli would be a great guy to run it. My point is that just because a 2 minute offense works doesn'tneccessarily mean that it would work as part of the normal offense. there are other factors at play.

                            Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Eli Theory

                              I agree with those who think it works best as a change-of-pace system - although, I do think it should be used more often during the game as a surprise element, rather than just at the two-minute mark. As good as Peyton has been with it, I believe he might have another ring (or two) if the Colts had a good, standard, grind-it-out offense that they could have shifted to for occasionally slowing down the pace.

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