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It's not crazy if Giants pick Nicks over Cruz

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  • #31
    Originally posted by RoanokeFan View Post
    I don't disagree, except to say I think a few players like Welker and Cruz are exceptional at what they do which is why they create the numbers they do.

    I think in 2013 we'll have Nicks and Cruz and in 2014, we may have to lose one. Until then, here's to playing at home in the next Super Bowl
    Yea. Welker and Cruz turn that ~800 yards into 1200+ yards. So I consider them more 500-800 yard receivers. Rather than 1200 yard guys.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by slipknottin View Post
      Yea. Welker and Cruz turn that ~800 yards into 1200+ yards. So I consider them more 500-800 yard receivers. Rather than 1200 yard guys.
      Aren't yards yards? It's what any receiver does after the catch that matters most.
      “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” MB Rule # 1

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      • #33
        Originally posted by RoanokeFan View Post
        Aren't yards yards? It's what any receiver does after the catch that matters most.
        Well there are ways to create mismatches that make some yards easier to get. A slot receiver with a two way go inherently has more chances to get the ball than an outside receiver who has the sideline working against him.

        It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)

        Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.

        So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.

        I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million

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        • #34
          Originally posted by slipknottin View Post
          Well there are ways to create mismatches that make some yards easier to get. A slot receiver with a two way go inherently has more chances to get the ball than an outside receiver who has the sideline working against him.

          It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)

          Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.

          So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.

          I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million
          I've seen that combination of years/dollars before and I think that's about right depending on the guarantee.
          “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” MB Rule # 1

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          • #35
            Originally posted by slipknottin View Post
            Well there are ways to create mismatches that make some yards easier to get. A slot receiver with a two way go inherently has more chances to get the ball than an outside receiver who has the sideline working against him.

            It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)

            Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.

            So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.

            I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million
            This is kind of the Moneyball way of looking at it. Which is fully credible, but I'm not sure it is a philosophy shared universally across the NFL. Smart teams look at it this way, which is why NYG and Patriots wont overpay a guy like Cruz or Welker, respectively. The problem is teams like the Bills, Jags and other teams who overpay big name players in hopes of selling more tickets.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by PBTimmons View Post
              This is kind of the Moneyball way of looking at it. Which is fully credible, but I'm not sure it is a philosophy shared universally across the NFL. Smart teams look at it this way, which is why NYG and Patriots wont overpay a guy like Cruz or Welker, respectively. The problem is teams like the Bills, Jags and other teams who overpay big name players in hopes of selling more tickets.
              The problem for other teams is that Cruz is not a good outside receiver. He is very average at best, and most teams don't have an offense that features a slot receiver who has options on every route he runs. Which is what Cruz does.

              It's not like Cruz is plug and play elsewhere. The patriots would love him, but not sure how many other teams would. Same reason welker is unlikely to fetch a huge deal in FA. Also why he was not nearly as productive as a receiver in Miami.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                Last year he had his contract restructured to get under the cap and negotiated a $9MM raise in return. If you think that Eli (or anyone) is taking a pay cut to fit the team under the cap you are dilusional.
                Eli didn't get a raise, MS. He converted base salary into a guaranteed signing bonus so it could be pro-rated over the remaining years of his contract. That in turn raised the cap hit of his contract after 2012, but he isn't getting any extra money whatsoever.
                Last edited by Drez; 02-19-2013, 11:03 AM.

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by EliDaMANning View Post
                  If these clowns put in RR when Nicks was injured earlier in the season we would've been able to see how expendable Nicks is. I like Nicks, he's a great player but I believe he can be replaced along with Cruz.
                  If you think Nicks is expendable, I don't think you realize quite how difficult it is to do what he does at the level he does it.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Drez View Post
                    Eli didn't get a raise, MS. He converted base salary into a guaranteed signing bonus so it could be pro-rated over the remaining years of his contract. That in turn raised the cap hit of his contract after 2012, but he isn't getting any extra money whatsoever.
                    What they did was guarantee an addition $9MM in his contract.
                    He got something for redoing his deal.
                    Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

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                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                      What they did was guarantee an addition $9MM in his contract.
                      He got something for redoing his deal.
                      No, he didn't. He restructured, not renegotiated.

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                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Drez View Post
                        No, he didn't. He restructured, not renegotiated.
                        This is what I'm going by. I guess its subject to interpretation.
                        http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...ts-675-million
                        Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                          This is what I'm going by. I guess its subject to interpretation.
                          http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...ts-675-million
                          And you're reading it wrong. He was due $10.75m last year in salary. He reduced his salary to $1.75m and the team "guaranteed" the remaining $9m so it could be pro-rated over the remaining years of the contract. There was no additional money. That $9m was originally part of his salary for 2012. Here's a bit from RV:

                          According to two NFL sources who saw the terms of the restructuring, the move, disclosed Thursday. involved reducing Manning’s base salary from $10.75 million to $1.75 million. The remaining $9 million was converted to a guarantee — either in the form of an upfront bonus, or simply a guaranteed portion of his salary. That allowed the Giants to spread the cap hit from that $9 million over the final four years of his current deal.
                          That in turn reduced Manning’s cap number from $16.35 million to just $9.6 million this season, although it does increase his number by $2.25 million in each of the ensuing three years.


                          Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/fo...#ixzz2LMYLVhs8

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Drez View Post
                            And you're reading it wrong. He was due $10.75m last year in salary. He reduced his salary to $1.75m and the team "guaranteed" the remaining $9m so it could be pro-rated over the remaining years of the contract. There was no additional money. That $9m was originally part of his salary for 2012. Here's a bit from RV:

                            According to two NFL sources who saw the terms of the restructuring, the move, disclosed Thursday. involved reducing Manning’s base salary from $10.75 million to $1.75 million. The remaining $9 million was converted to a guarantee — either in the form of an upfront bonus, or simply a guaranteed portion of his salary. That allowed the Giants to spread the cap hit from that $9 million over the final four years of his current deal.
                            That in turn reduced Manning’s cap number from $16.35 million to just $9.6 million this season, although it does increase his number by $2.25 million in each of the ensuing three years.


                            Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/fo...#ixzz2LMYLVhs8
                            It seems that you are right. The only advantage for Eli is that he got that $9MM up front as a bonus instead of having to wait for it over the course of the season. Since it was a"bonus" the club could defer the cap hit over several years.
                            So essentially he got a check for $9MM when they redid the contract. But he would have gotten that money over time anyway.
                            Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Unless he got cut.

                              From the giants perspective they shaved 9 mil that season but added 9 mil in dead money in future years.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Morehead State View Post
                                It seems that you are right. The only advantage for Eli is that he got that $9MM up front as a bonus instead of having to wait for it over the course of the season. Since it was a"bonus" the club could defer the cap hit over several years.
                                So essentially he got a check for $9MM when they redid the contract. But he would have gotten that money over time anyway.
                                It didn't change when he got the money. If he didn't restructure, his base salary would have been guaranteed on the first day of the season. It just changed the way the FO was able to account for it against the cap.

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