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  • #91
    Originally posted by gmen46 View Post
    I'll agree that Spiller, Moreno, and Richardson--as 1st rd picks-- did not set the world on fire their respective first 2 years, and that the first 2 each had 1 impressive year of rushing and/or receiving subsequently.

    But even so, Moreno had 1726 yds rushing, and 585 yds receiving, plus 18 tds combined in his first 2 yrs.

    Spiller had 844 yds rushing, 63 yds receiving, plus 7 tds combined. Plus he was a dangerous and prodigious return threat both years, as was Wilson his first year. H was not seen as an "every down back", as Bills had Jackson for that.

    Richardson is seen as not yet breaking out as the highest 1st rd RB of his year, yet he's had 1513 yds rushing, 683 yds receiving, and 15 tds combined his first 2 years.

    Bush justified his 1st rd pick with his overall play; he was never expected by most in the know (of his talents in college) to be the featured between the tackles RB. Comparing what he accomplished his first 2 years to Wilson's is not a good comparison.

    On the other hand, after his first 2 yrs, Wilson has 504 rush yds, 42 receiving yds, and 6 tds combined. Plus is rookie year as an impressive return weapon.

    The problem here is that in using Spiller, Moreno, and Richardson as examples of 1st rd RBs that took more than 2 years to develop as premier RBs, you undermine the argument favorable to Wilson, since his sample of work in his first 2 years has been so inferior to those 3 in their first 2 years that he's not positively comparable even to those 3.
    Not really; Compare the number of carries those backs received and the quality of their offensive lines to Wilson's, and you can easily see how Wilson would have had better production behind an improved offensive line and more opportunities.
    Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

    Comment


    • #92
      Originally posted by gmen46 View Post
      Bush had 1146 rushing yds, 1159 receiving yds, and 14 tds combined, his first 2 yrs.

      Wilson, as I said previously, had 504 rushing yds, 42 receiving yds, and 6 tds combined. Not even c;ose in comparison.

      And the number of snaps is an excuse, not a relevant rationale of comparison. The better a player performs, the more snaps he will have. The number of snaps Wilson has had is a result of his performance and availability (endurance), not the other way around.
      No the number of snaps is a relevant point because I didn't see anything that Wilson did to not get the snaps, unless of course you are talking about that one fumble, but then this is the same coach that kept Tiki Barber on the field through umpteen fumbles.

      Reggie Bush was expected to be the running back he is now in Detroit and was in Miami when he was drafted. NO was disappointed in the back that he was at the time. He learned to run between the tackles, but it took some time.
      Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

      http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

      Comment


      • #93
        Originally posted by DownWitJPP View Post
        He does have a fumbling problem but i agree with Morehead, I think it's all mental. He's worrying so much about not fumbling that it's taking away his athleticism.

        If Coughlin can fix Tiki's fumbling issues I'm confident he can fix Wilson's. My biggest concern with Wilson isn't his running ability it's his blocking
        Did you see how he held the ball his last game before he was injured? I started laughing, but it's not really funny. He was thinking way too much about not fumbling and was leaving yards out there that could have been made.
        Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

        http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

        Comment


        • #94
          Originally posted by B&RWarrior View Post
          Reggie Bush is the biggest name that comes to mind, but lets also compare the #of carries first round backs get to the number of snaps David Wilson received in his first 2 years.
          Yeah, I looked this up back then.

          In terms of carries, early Spiller is the only one he compares to.

          In his rookie year, Wilson received the least amount of carries of any first-rounder over the past decade. Spiller was #2.

          Comment


          • #95
            Originally posted by gmen46 View Post
            Agree 100%

            "We don't always agree....

            But when I do, I prefer Morehead State." (sounds like an insurance commercial; oh, well)
            Oh my God...I laughed my *** off.

            Thank you for that at the end of a long week.
            Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter accusations.

            Comment


            • #96
              Originally posted by B&RWarrior View Post
              No the number of snaps is a relevant point because I didn't see anything that Wilson did to not get the snaps, unless of course you are talking about that one fumble, but then this is the same coach that kept Tiki Barber on the field through umpteen fumbles.

              Reggie Bush was expected to be the running back he is now in Detroit and was in Miami when he was drafted. NO was disappointed in the back that he was at the time. He learned to run between the tackles, but it took some time.
              So, you're suggesting if Wilson had better and/or longer runs when he did run, he still would not have been given more opportunities. OK. And, btw, Wilson had 2--not 1--lost fumbles in that first game of the season, on national TV. One of which was recovered for TD.

              And how do you know definitively what Saints expected of Bush as a runner? Don't you think Payton--the so-called offensive genius that everyone believes him to be--would have utilized him as their feature running back--between the tackles and all--if that's what he expected of him when they drafted him? If not, then you're implying Sporano of Miami and the current Detroit coach are better coaches than Payton. A difficult argument, I should think, and not very persuasive.

              Comment


              • #97
                Originally posted by BleedingBlue123 View Post
                I loved the Wilson pick and I still like Wilson --- that said I would still like us to get another RB in one of rds 3, 4 or 5.

                Would love to see Jennings/Wilson/Draft Pick back bring back a little 3-headed RB attack.
                Honestly, I'm not a big fan of the Wilson draft pick.

                That being said, I'm all in for Wilson now that he's on the team. He's shown flashes of just about every skill set a RB needs, now he just needs to display these things consistently and break out. Cruz didn't have a single catch in a regular season game before that TD in philly. In fact, he was targeted a couple times in week 1 in 2011 and dropped the ball each time.

                That said, if Wilson doesn't break out, then he'll most likely play out his rookie contract and be out of the NFL afterwards.

                I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite team in the NFL.

                Comment


                • #98
                  Originally posted by gmen46 View Post
                  So, you're suggesting if Wilson had better and/or longer runs when he did run, he still would not have been given more opportunities. OK. And, btw, Wilson had 2--not 1--lost fumbles in that first game of the season, on national TV. One of which was recovered for TD.

                  And how do you know definitively what Saints expected of Bush as a runner? Don't you think Payton--the so-called offensive genius that everyone believes him to be--would have utilized him as their feature running back--between the tackles and all--if that's what he expected of him when they drafted him? If not, then you're implying Sporano of Miami and the current Detroit coach are better coaches than Payton. A difficult argument, I should think, and not very persuasive.
                  I'm suggesting had Wilson been allowed to learn as he played as most 1sr round rookie RBs do, he would have progressed faster while making more plays. As for the number of fumbles, it could have been 3 fumbles all returned for TDs and I still would not have benched the kid. Had we followed the same philosophy with Tiki he would be an all-time great Giant.

                  I can definitively say that no team would ever spend or has ever spent the second pick of the draft on a RB and not expected him to be able to run between the tackles. Bush lacked that ability in his initial years. Peyton uses players for their strengths and running between the tackles was not Reggie's strength coming out of USC. Had you actually watched a good amount of Bush in his first 2 season you would have witnessed him taking run plays designed for "between the tackle running" outside the tackles on a consistent basis. Not only is the argument persuasive, but it's supported by actual evidence. As for your argument, I cannot say the same.
                  Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

                  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

                  Comment


                  • #99
                    Originally posted by YATittle1962 View Post
                    I'll sit and patiently wait for your examples of him showing anything but speed ..... ever

                    here is a list of what a quality NFL running back needs to posses .... most if not all

                    Vision
                    Patience
                    ability to detect a blitz ... pre snap and post
                    ability to pick up that blitz / blocking skills
                    ball security
                    cuts / change of direction.... directly related to vision
                    speed - blinding speed not necessary
                    hands out of the backfield
                    power


                    David Wilson possesses almost none of these

                    beyond break away speed he is borderline useless
                    How many of these do you need to qualify as an elite back?

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by B&RWarrior View Post
                      I'm suggesting had Wilson been allowed to learn as he played as most 1sr round rookie RBs do, he would have progressed faster while making more plays. As for the number of fumbles, it could have been 3 fumbles all returned for TDs and I still would not have benched the kid. Had we followed the same philosophy with Tiki he would be an all-time great Giant.

                      I can definitively say that no team would ever spend or has ever spent the second pick of the draft on a RB and not expected him to be able to run between the tackles. Bush lacked that ability in his initial years. Peyton uses players for their strengths and running between the tackles was not Reggie's strength coming out of USC. Had you actually watched a good amount of Bush in his first 2 season you would have witnessed him taking run plays designed for "between the tackle running" outside the tackles on a consistent basis. Not only is the argument persuasive, but it's supported by actual evidence. As for your argument, I cannot say the same.
                      Sorry, b&r, you're contradicting yourself to make 2 different arguments into one.

                      According to you, Bush was not used primarily as a between the tackles RB while with the Saints (5 years) due to his "inability" to do so. Not because of any coaching decisions to best use his talents. Then, all of a sudden, in his 6th season and on a different team (without the passing prowess of the Saints, coincidentally, so the imperative to run was paramount), Bush became a between the tackles running threat. The light switched on, as it were. In his 6th season.

                      On the other hand, Wilson wasn't used primarily as a between the tackles RB because of some COACHES conspiracy to not give him a "chance to progress" as you say--not because of his "inability"-- so he has not done much for us his first 2 years.

                      Coughlin did not bench him this past year, btw. He played the first 5 games (starting 4) before injuring his neck in game 5.

                      Look, if you want to claim our coaches did not use Wilson's talents to their potential--say, like Saints did with Bush his first couple years--then OK. Lord knows, nearly everyone else on this board makes that claim. Although it's difficult to make that claim legitimately since Wilson's few screen passes never worked, and he wasn't thrown to down field enough to judge him.

                      But to argue that Bush was incapable of running between tackles for 5 years, that his utilization by the Saints was not strictly a coaching decision, just as his new found running prowess was likely a coaching necessity by Miami, but then to claim Wilson's failure to look like a 1st rd RB talent is ONLY due to our coaching decisions, is not a fair analysis.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Toadofsteel View Post
                        Honestly, I'm not a big fan of the Wilson draft pick.

                        That being said, I'm all in for Wilson now that he's on the team. He's shown flashes of just about every skill set a RB needs, now he just needs to display these things consistently and break out. Cruz didn't have a single catch in a regular season game before that TD in philly. In fact, he was targeted a couple times in week 1 in 2011 and dropped the ball each time.

                        That said, if Wilson doesn't break out, then he'll most likely play out his rookie contract and be out of the NFL afterwards.
                        OR, he could end up a Raider in 2 years

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by gmen46 View Post
                          I'll agree that Spiller, Moreno, and Richardson--as 1st rd picks-- did not set the world on fire their respective first 2 years, and that the first 2 each had 1 impressive year of rushing and/or receiving subsequently.

                          But even so, Moreno had 1726 yds rushing, and 585 yds receiving, plus 18 tds combined in his first 2 yrs.

                          Spiller had 844 yds rushing, 63 yds receiving, plus 7 tds combined. Plus he was a dangerous and prodigious return threat both years, as was Wilson his first year. H was not seen as an "every down back", as Bills had Jackson for that.

                          Richardson is seen as not yet breaking out as the highest 1st rd RB of his year, yet he's had 1513 yds rushing, 683 yds receiving, and 15 tds combined his first 2 years.

                          Bush justified his 1st rd pick with his overall play; he was never expected by most in the know (of his talents in college) to be the featured between the tackles RB. Comparing what he accomplished his first 2 years to Wilson's is not a good comparison.

                          On the other hand, after his first 2 yrs, Wilson has 504 rush yds, 42 receiving yds, and 6 tds combined. Plus is rookie year as an impressive return weapon.

                          The problem here is that in using Spiller, Moreno, and Richardson as examples of 1st rd RBs that took more than 2 years to develop as premier RBs, you undermine the argument favorable to Wilson, since his sample of work in his first 2 years has been so inferior to those 3 in their first 2 years that he's not positively comparable even to those 3.
                          wilsons really only had 1 real year. IR'd his 2nd. and in his rookie campaign, he was benched week 1 and didnt get carries, a bulk of them, until like week 9 or something against N.O...

                          Wilson, imo, has displayed a skill set worthy of being selected rd 1. not consistently. but, he has displayed for me at least, a quality skill set.

                          again i cant put enough emphasis on how poorly i believe he was misused his rookie yr and 2nd yr. i partly blame the reality we see today re: Wilson on KG and to a large extent TC...

                          Comment


                          • wilson is that same RB who had that awesome handful of games as a rookie (Cleveland, NO, Philly, SF he looked extremely good)...its not as if Wilson hasnt displayed quality ever. he has. just not consistently. and a big part of that imo is coaching.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by gibril28wilson View Post
                              i think the only place we wont see Wilson is on KR, i think hell still be a part of this offense and the change of pace, speed back that we have. kid has showed skills he just had the worst oline in football in front of him last year, and its hard for a small speed back to make something happen when youre getting hit 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage. hell still be a part of this offense and an affective player IMO
                              No we won't We signed demos and holiday for that. It's RB or nothing.

                              Comment


                              • My argument is very consistent. Bush was not proficient at running between the tackles in his first 2 years. I never said anything about "all of the sudden", that is your claim. I thought it goes without saying it is a skill that he worked on. Most rational football fans would also assume this. The clear point being is that he was a high first round draft pick that developed after his first 2 years.

                                The Saints used Bush to his full potential his first few years. He was not effective between the tackles in his first couple of years. He got better as his career moved along. I'm sure he had to be much improved his last year with the NO.

                                I actually think Wilson knows how to run between the tackles. Be clear, in no way am I saying Wilson is equal to or better than Bush as a RB. My qualm with the coaches is that they sat the guy for almost the entire rookie year based off of a bad game, and thus ******ed his development as a player. What rookie doesn't have a bad game? It may say 2 years on his profile, but he's got the game experience of a rookie at the halfway point of his rookie year.

                                Wilson will make plays if given the opportunity. 115 carries in 2 years, mostly behind a porous line is not much of an opportunity. He also had that stenosis which cut his 2nd year short. That alone should give him at least another year to put off calling him a bust.

                                Remember what B&R Warrior told you. Wilson will roll in 2014.
                                Because of all of the effort and examination being poured into these predictions, the draft is a robust market that, in the aggregate, does a good job of sorting prospects from top to bottom.1 Yet despite so many people trying to “beat the market,” no single actor can do it consistently. Abnormal returns are likely due to luck, not skill. But that hasn’t stopped NFL executives from behaving with the confidence of traders.

                                http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eat-the-draft/

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