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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS - DVOA RATINGS, WEEK 19

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  • FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS - DVOA RATINGS, WEEK 19

    DVOA RATINGS, WEEK 19

    "Once again, it is time for postseason DVOA
    ratings. As always, the following rules apply:
      [*]All 32 teams are ranked, whether they
      made the playoffs or not.[*]Teams are ranked in order of weighted
      DVOA, not total season DVOA. Since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength
      of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-5, and Weeks 6-11 are
      somewhat discounted.[*]Teams are treated as having a bye week in
      any week where they did not play. Since most teams haven't played in two weeks,
      that means some of the ratings for non-playoff teams can start getting a little
      unreliable. Really, this is only to be used for playoff teams, the other teams
      are just there for ranking comparison purposes.[*]DVOA, as always takes a long-term view of
      an NFL team's performance. That means that the games of the last two weeks are
      just two games among many, so teams may be listed below other teams that they
      have beaten in the playoffs.[/list]


      This really means something, of course,
      when it comes to the Giants, whose season has followed a crazy up-down-up trend
      similar to four years ago. If we look only at DVOA over the last four weeks, the
      Giants would be number one. But the Giants were lousy between Week 10 and Week
      15. Those games are all accounted for in the current weighted DVOA ratings.
      History has shown us that most of the time, it's better to look at two or three
      months of games. And by history, I mean pretty much most of the last 20 years
      except for the 2007 Giants and 2008 Cardinals. So, honestly, who the hell knows.
      The Giants confuse me.





      The playoff odds report
      is also updated through through this week's games.


      * * * * *




      To save people some time, we remind
      everyone to put their angry troll hatred into the official zlionsfan angry troll
      hatred Mad Libs form:





      If you are new to our website, you can
      read the explanation of how DVOA is figured here. As always, positive numbers represent more points so
      DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.





































































































































































































































































































































































































































      TEAM WEI.
      DVOA
      LAST
      WEEK
      W-L WEI OFF
      DVOA
      OFF.
      RANK
      WEI DEF
      DVOA
      DEF.
      RANK
      WEI S.T.
      DVOA
      S.T.
      RANK

      1 NO 32.6% 1 14-4 48.9% 1 16.6% 30 0.4% 17
      2 NE 32.4% 4 14-3 40.1% 2 15.5% 26 7.7% 3
      3 PIT 26.0% 3 12-5 15.7% 9 -7.0% 5 3.3% 9
      4 PHI 24.4% 5 8-8 16.8% 8 -6.9% 6 0.6% 16
      5 GB 22.3% 2 15-2 34.7% 3 16.0% 28 3.6% 8
      6 HOU 20.2% 6 11-7 8.5% 12 -10.5% 2 1.2% 13
      7 SF 19.7% 7 14-3 3.2% 16 -8.7% 4 7.8% 2
      8 DET 16.1% 8 10-7 20.1% 6 1.2% 14 -2.8% 27
      9 BAL 14.5% 10 13-4 8.3% 13 -9.6% 3 -3.4% 29
      10 NYG 13.7% 13 11-7 17.5% 7 4.6% 17 0.9% 15
      11 ATL 12.4% 9 10-7 8.9% 11 -5.7% 10 -2.2% 26
      12 SEA 11.0% 12 7-9 3.0% 18 -5.9% 9 2.1% 11
      13 SD 10.4% 15 8-8 26.0% 5 16.5% 29 0.9% 14
      14 TEN 9.9% 16 9-7 1.4% 19 3.3% 15 11.9% 1
      15 MIA 9.1% 11 6-10 -2.9% 20 -6.4% 8 5.6% 5
      16 NYJ 6.9% 14 8-8 -3.7% 21 -6.9% 7 3.7% 7

      TEAM WEI.
      DVOA
      LAST
      WEEK
      W-L WEI OFF
      DVOA
      OFF.
      RANK
      WEI DEF
      DVOA
      DEF.
      RANK
      WEI S.T.
      DVOA
      S.T.
      RANK

      17 CAR 2.1% 17 6-10 26.8% 4 21.7% 31 -3.1% 28
      18 DAL -2.7% 18 8-8 10.8% 10 12.9% 23 -0.6% 19
      19 CIN -5.0% 20 9-8 3.1% 17 10.8% 22 2.7% 10
      20 WAS -6.0% 22 5-11 3.2% 15 7.4% 19 -1.8% 24
      21 CHI -6.6% 19 8-8 -25.7% 32 -13.2% 1 6.0% 4
      22 CLE -9.5% 24 4-12 -4.7% 22 9.3% 20 4.6% 6
      23 OAK -10.0% 25 8-8 6.4% 14 15.1% 24 -1.2% 20
      24 KC -10.8% 23 7-9 -14.6% 26 -5.5% 11 -1.7% 23
      25 ARI -12.8% 26 8-8 -15.6% 28 -1.0% 13 1.9% 12
      26 DEN -16.0% 21 9-9 -5.9% 23 10.2% 21 0.1% 18
      27 JAC -17.7% 27 5-11 -17.9% 29 -1.7% 12 -1.5% 22
      28 BUF -22.9% 28 6-10 -6.3% 24 15.4% 25 -1.3% 21
      29 IND -25.0% 29 2-14 -14.6% 27 6.9% 18 -3.4% 30
      30 MIN -32.0% 30 3-13 -11.2% 25 15.6% 27 -5.2% 31
      31 STL -32.5% 31 2-14 -21.8% 31 4.6% 16 -6.2% 32
      32 TB -45.2% 32 4-12 -19.9% 30 23.1% 32 -2.1% 25




      Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the
      second round of the playoffs. Yes, Houston did in fact come out with a slightly
      higher DVOA than Baltimore. Fumbles are such a bummer.





































































      DVOA (with opponent adjustments)
      TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST
      SF 55% 17% -16% 22%
      NO 21% 44% 14% -8%
      NE 106% 68% -21% 17%
      DEN -102% -54% 42% -6%
      BAL 23% -24% -36% 11%
      HOU 29% -12% -43% -2%
      NYG 63% 31% -35% -3%
      GB -11% 1% 19% 7%


























































      VOAf (no opponent adjustments)
      TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST
      SF 23% 20% 20% 22%
      NO 9% 33% 16% -8%
      NE 124% 73% -34% 17%
      DEN -112% -41% 66% -6%
      BAL 8% -33% -30% 11%
      HOU 10% -27% -39% -2%
      NYG 38% 40% -1% -3%
      GB -15% 6% 27% 7%




      Based on DVOA, this actually isn't the
      worst game the Packers played all year. It's close. They had -17.5% DVOA for
      their Week 11 narrow win over Tampa Bay, and -15.5% for their Week 15 loss to
      Kansas City.




      The Patriots' 45-10 domination of Denver
      wasn't just a run-of-the-mill big win where the Patriots offense played its
      usual good game and the Broncos offense played its usual bad game. It was
      actually one of the biggest wins of the season. The Patriots' single-game DVOA
      was the third highest of the entire season, behind only two games: Houston's
      Week 7 41-7 win over Tennessee and Baltimore's Week 1 35-7 win over Pittsburgh.
      Denver's single-game DVOA was the second lowest of the entire season, ahead of
      only Washington's 23-0 loss to Buffalo in Week 8."

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” MB Rule # 1
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