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  1. #1
    Moderator RoanokeFan's Avatar
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    HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    "A lot is made of New York Giants General Manager Jerry
    Reese
    and his NFL Draft
    philosophy. Since he took over as GM in 2007, the common theme is "take the best
    player available." But going back to the 2004 NFL
    Draft
    when Big Blue traded for franchise quarterback Eli Manning, has the
    team really acted on that current philosophy or did Ernie Accorsi see things
    differently? Moreover, is that really the philosophy they follow now?



    New York Giants personnel work the phones before the
    Giants made their first round pick at the 2010 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall in New York,
    April 22, 2010. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)




















    Rounds one through four of the NFL Draft are widely considered "impact rounds," so the
    best way to get a feel for where the Giants stand and what they value most is by
    looking at how they draft for value in those rounds. To do that, of course, you
    need to have an understanding of the NFL
    Draft value chart
    .




    Below is a compilation of data based on the NFL Draft value chart and the Giants' selections over the
    first four rounds between 2004 and 2011.























































































    Position Picks Value Avg. Value Avg. Sel. # Avg. Round
    QB 1 3000 3000 1 1
    CB 4 2471 618 36 1
    WR 6 1950 325 65 2
    DE 3 1860 620 40 2
    DT 4 1053 263 76 3
    LB 6 853 142 99 4
    S 2 810 405 54 2
    G 1 560 560 34 2
    T 3 403 134 102 3
    RB 2 117 59 120 4
    TE 1 100 100 100 3



    Although Eli Manning wasn't drafted #1 overall by the Giants, his value
    selection by the San Diego Chargers was 3,000 which is where he falls in the
    above chart. If, however, you were to tally the value of the picks traded for
    him (including Phillip Rivers), the value would then be as follows:


      [*]Phillip Rivers (4th overall) – 1,800[*]2004 3rd Round Pick – 265[*]2005 1st Round Pick – 1,200[*]2005 5th Round Pick – 34[*]TOTAL: 3,299[/list]

      Here is a look at the above information in a pie chart (keep in mind,
      percentages are rounded off):





      What stands out most is that 71% of the value of all draft picks over the
      first four rounds since 2004 have been at four positions: Quarterback (the
      franchise QB), cornerback, defensive end and wide receiver.




      What can be taken from that is simple: the Giants' strengths are most
      certainly built during the first four rounds of the NFL Draft. QB
      and WR result in the highly dangerous Big Blue passing attack, while DE and CB
      result in the equally as dangerous defensive pass rush.




      Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, besides the quarterback (which, again, was the
      franchise QB with the highest value), the greatest value has been placed at the
      cornerback position, with four selections all averaging a first-round pick –
      Prince Amukamra slipped to the Giants in the first-round during the 2011 NFL Draft and
      was considered the "best player available."




      Note: The average value at cornerback is a first-round pick, but not
      all CBs were drafted in the first round (Terrell Thomas, 2nd round and Corey
      Webster, 2nd round)."




      Looking beyond the top 71% value, the Giants have continued to focus much of
      their attention on the defensive line, but of the interior variety with 8%.
      There are four selections there that average a third-round pick, and whom also
      directly contribute to the success of the pass rush.




      Going into the 2012 NFL Draft, the Giants' primary cause for concern is at
      the tight end position. As you can see by the numbers above, less than 1% of
      their overall value has been spent on tight ends, with their only selection
      being Travis
      Beckum
      (3rd round, 100th overall) in 2009. Beckum will likely begin the 2012
      season on the Physically Unable Perform (PUP) List with a torn ACL.




      A total of 7% of their overall value has been spent on the offensive line,
      with no value at the center position. Three of the four players drafted remain
      with the team, two of whom (Will Beatty and Chris Snee) are starters.




      Based on all of these numbers, it seems like the Giants draft for pass rush
      and pass offense as opposed to "best player available." Then again, one could
      make the argument that it's merely a coincidence and the best player(s)
      available since 2004 have primarily been those that strengthen both the aerial
      attack and pass rush (see: Mathias
      Kiwanuka
      , Prince
      Amukamara
      and Hakeem
      Nicks
      as primary examples).




      Whatever case may be, there does appear to be a method to the madness.

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” MB Rule # 1


  2. #2

    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    I'm gonna name those draft picks with the rounds, not in chronological order.

    QB: Rivers traded for Eli (1)
    CB: Webster (2-first Giants pick), A.Ross (1), T.Thomas (2), Prince (1)
    WR: Nicks (1), Manningham (3), Barden (3), S. Moss (2), Steve Smith (2), J.Jernigan (3)
    DE: Tuck (3), JPP (1), M. Kiwanuka (1)
    DT: Linval Joseph (2), Marvin Austin (2), Barry Cofield (4), J Alford (3)
    LB: R. Torbor (4), G. Wilkinson (3), Zak DeOssie (4), B. Kehl (4), P. Dillard (4), Clint Sintim (2)
    S: K. Phillips (1), C. Jones (3)
    G: C. Snee (2)
    T: J. Brewer (4), W. Beatty (2), G. Whimper (4)
    RB: B. Jacobs (4), A. Brown (4)
    TE: Travis Beckum (3)

  3. #3
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    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    [quote user="NYGRealityCheck"]I'm gonna name those draft picks with the rounds, not in chronological order.

    QB: Rivers traded for Eli (1)
    CB: Webster (2-first Giants pick), A.Ross (1), T.Thomas (2), Prince (1)
    WR: Nicks (1), Manningham (3), Barden (3), S. Moss (2), Steve Smith (2), J.Jernigan (3)
    DE: Tuck (3), JPP (1), M. Kiwanuka (1)
    DT: Linval Joseph (2), Marvin Austin (2), Barry Cofield (4), J Alford (3)
    LB: R. Torbor (4), G. Wilkinson (3), Zak DeOssie (4), B. Kehl (4), P. Dillard (4), Clint Sintim (2)
    S: K. Phillips (1), C. Jones (3)
    G: C. Snee (2)
    T: J. Brewer (4), W. Beatty (2), G. Whimper (4)
    RB: B. Jacobs (4), A. Brown (4)
    TE: Travis Beckum (3)[/quote]

    I know its no surprise, but wow do we suck at drafting LBs... Not one hit of the 6.

  4. #4
    All-Pro jomo's Avatar
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    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004



    Hey RF,




    I think that there's no method to the madness because we are not looking at a fixed set of parameters. One year we get a guy like Cruz for next to nothing and then for a couple of years, WR isn't a draft priority for us. We get Bradshaw for a song so why burn a 1-4 pick on a RB in subsequent drafts? I'm trying to get my head around your numbers. I think I'm going to conclude that everything is too fluid and that there aren't priority positions, only value plays. For example, why would we drop a 1-4 on a QB right now? I need to dig into this one.

    No one remembers who came in second.

  5. #5
    All-Pro gmen46's Avatar
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    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    [quote user="jomo"]

    Hey RF,




    I think that there's no method to the madness because we are not looking at a fixed set of parameters. One year we get a guy like Cruz for next to nothing and then for a couple of years, WR isn't a draft priority for us. We get Bradshaw for a song so why burn a 1-4 pick on a RB in subsequent drafts? I'm trying to get my head around your numbers. I think I'm going to conclude that everything is too fluid and that there aren't priority positions, only value plays. For example, why would we drop a 1-4 on a QB right now? I need to dig into this one.

    [/quote]

    Since Reese became GM, and this article confirms it to me, I have seen his draft philosophy as somewhat fluid, but firmly within a framework. Sort of like a waterbed, if you will.

    I believe absolutely he drafts "best player available" in the first 3, and often first 4, rounds, but with a couple caveats.

    1) People here who question that are not considering Reese's point of view of what constitutes "best player available". That is going to be defined differently by every single GM.

    2) I believe his draft board has each player IN EACH POSITION valued in descending order, before the draft begins. Equally, he has each POSITION--as valued each given year--valued in descending order.

    Then as players fall off the board, not only is the highest (as valued by the Giants) player remaining by each Giants' slot considered, but it's the highest player in a specific position that is also considered. So, if there are 2 or even 3 highest valued players available at a specific Giants pick, the position represented can become the tie breaker or the final decider in announcing their pick.

    3) Before the draft, a few positions are prioritized.

    Defense: Ends, tackles, corner backs. And receivers. Is that really a surprise to anyone here?

    4) Part of that prioritization is determined not only by perceived immediate need, but also by strategic need that addresses the team's desired approach to the game.

    5) Obviously, by our own observations over the years as well as by this chart, there are certain positions that are emphasized over other positions nearly every year.

    Only when a unique situation has developed--like a need for a new franchise QB, for example--does one of those "lesser" positions leapfrog over the more favored positions.

    The only position that I was surprised has not been emphasized, at least not much, in the first 3 rounds over the past 8 years has been OL. As I say, a bit surprising. But that may be more a function of the rapid drop in quality OL prospects after the first round, over the last 7-8 years, than it is any lack of interest by Reese.

    These are all components that explain--to me, at any rate--why we see the concentration of specific positions that have been selected in the first 4 rounds over the past 8 years.

    As a corollary to that approach, there are a couple positions--RB is one that comes to mind--that Reese (using his name to mean the FO in general) believes does not require a commitment to round 1-3. Unless a very unusually talented back, say of the quality of a Peterson--very very rare--is available when it's time for the Giants to pick. In the past several years, those rare RBs have never been available when it became the Giants turn.

    Which confirms what I thought most of us in this forum already assumed. That Reese was a very smart apprentice to Accorsi, and that, although he definitely brings his own unique talents and intelligence to his job, he has continued the Accorsi approach to the draft and to free agency.

  6. #6

    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    Its kind of interesting tho if you think about it. All the positions at the bottom of that chart coincide with our weakest performance last year.

    G, T, RB are all bottom of the chart, and last year we stunk and running and werent very good at pass protecting.

  7. #7
    Veteran JJC7301's Avatar
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    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    Now THAT is the type of analysis that I love. Thanks Roanoke.

    We seem to do well getting good or decent o-line with non-1st round picks. I'm eager to see if the line will improve with another year as a cohesive unit, or Brewer, Petrus, or Boothe getting shots to compete for starting positions. The one o-line guy that I would take in the 1st would be Cordy Glenn because of his flexibility to play either G or T, but it's unlikely that he falls to us.

    And the strategy stated in the article is why I would be shocked if we took a TE or LB in the 1st. If one somehow falls to us in the 2nd, then yeah, we very well might but I know that the Giants FO doesn't put as much stock value at those positions.

    I'm not sold on this being a "TE league" now. I've always loved the dual-purpose of the position, but I don't think we "need" a TE superstar ala Gronk, Graham, Davis, or Hernandez. Ballard was excellent value and we should try to hold the fort at TE until he can hopefully come back because I'm thinking about the '13 and '14 cap as well.

    RB -- we had a 4th rounder (BJ) and two 7th rounders (Ward and AB) as our 3-headed monster in '08. They were / are all very good RBs, but they were also playing behind the best o-line in the game at that time. Put together a good, solid, consistent o-line first before bringing in new RBs.

    If a stud o-line, RB, TE, or LB prospect falls into our laps then great, but 2 SB victories over the past 4 years is testament to the Giants drafting philosophy.

    Protect our QB with an o-line that can at least pass protect; give him passing weapons; get to the opponents QB; and prevent the opposing QB from getting the ball to his receivers before we can hit him. It's been a great philosophical basis for structuring a team.

  8. #8
    All-Pro slipknottin's Avatar
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    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    Its actually somewhat simple to see the giants strategy.

    First, you define the areas of need on the team.
    Second you rank all the players in the draft (probably only ends up being about 150 or so players on their board, possibly fewer)

    Then at every pick they have,they look at the players that are the highest value at that selection.

    If its one player only thats the highest rated, he is drafted.

    If its a group of players, they look at the group, and find the player that is the highest need.

  9. #9

    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    [quote user="slipknottin"]Its actually somewhat simple to see the giants strategy.

    First, you define the areas of need on the team.
    Second you rank all the players in the draft (probably only ends up being about 150 or so players on their board, possibly fewer)

    Then at every pick they have,they look at the players that are the highest value at that selection.

    If its one player only thats the highest rated, he is drafted.

    If its a group of players, they look at the group, and find the player that is the highest need.[/quote]

    And then you filter out all LBers
    I don't always root for the Cowboys but when I do I wear my pink Jessica Simpson edition Romo jersey. (yes I lost a bet)

  10. #10
    Hall of Famer MattMeyerBud's Avatar
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    Re: HOW THE GIANTS DRAFT BY POSITION VALUE SINCE 2004

    [quote user="jomo"]

    Hey RF,




    I think that there's no method to the madness because we are not looking at a fixed set of parameters. One year we get a guy like Cruz for next to nothing and then for a couple of years, WR isn't a draft priority for us. We get Bradshaw for a song so why burn a 1-4 pick on a RB in subsequent drafts? I'm trying to get my head around your numbers. I think I'm going to conclude that everything is too fluid and that there aren't priority positions, only value plays. For example, why would we drop a 1-4 on a QB right now? I need to dig into this one.

    [/quote]

    thats actually why I don't think if we lost BJ this year(which i doubt we will) that we would look anywhere high for a RB. We have take guys deep with Andre Brown and Darell Scott that the Gmen absolutely love.

    It is fluid but I mean the reality of it is that our general philosophy is that we don't seem to think going high on LBers is important and we always look to strengthen our oline anyway we can (JPP). Then you have to look at current needs (Phillips) or needs that will be coming up very soon (Prince).

    No REAL method, its just that most of the time most positions are all fair game. Obviously not QB and highly doubtful LBer as well. But again if we get a steal drop to us, I think we would get it
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