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  1. #1
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    Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    [link]http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/05/04/fantasy-david-wilson-can-return-balance-to-the-giants/[/link]


    May 4th, 2012 | Author: Scott Spratt

    I was surprised by the Giantsí decision to spend a first-round pick on a running back. They needed a body, no doubt, after allowing Brandon Jacobs to sign with the 49ers in free agency. I figured, however, that 2007 seventh-round pick Ahmad Bradshaw, who rated eighth overall at RB in last season at +14.7, would have inspired them to a little more creativity (read: bargain shopping) at the position where pedigree seems least tied to success.

    Wilson, in particular, strikes me as an odd choice. He is within an inch in height and ten pounds of Bradshaw and has a similar skill set. He provides no change of pace. He is depth. When Bradshaw is tired or hurt, Wilson will do Bradshaw things. And that realization sparked my own creativity. Why do the Giants believe they need more Ahmad Bradshaw?

    The answer, I discovered, is for Eli Manning. I still had not come to terms with the sudden jump in his fantasy production after years of unmatched consistency, and perhaps this is the reason why. Eli was a different player and the Giants were a different team in 2011 when Bradshaw missed games.

    Dropbacks Att Comp
    2011 Weeks 9-12 42.5 40.3 24.3
    2011 Other Weeks 38.1 35.7 21.8
    2010 All Weeks 35.3 33.7 21.2

    In weeks 9-13, when Bradshaw was out with a foot injury, Eli averaged more than 4 dropbacks and attempts and more than 3 completions more per game than in the weeks when Bradshaw was healthy. His numbers in those four weeks were close to a midpoint between the rest of the 2011 season and the 2010 season, and, in fact, his average number of completions in those four weeks was nearly identical to his average in 2010.

    When looked at as a whole, the Giants appear to have had a philosophical shift in offense last season. They were well balanced in 2010 at 56% pass to 44% run. In 2011, that exaggerated to 62% pass and 38% run. The change is easy to overlook, anecdotally. Eli looked like a better player and the relative value of a pass over a run continues to increase with the changes in NFL rules for defender contact. However, I think the prudent expectation for 2012 will be for the 2011 numbers with Bradshaw and not the 2011 numbers in total.

    With the increasing likelihood for a pass, defenses appear to have noticed. Eli was sacked merely 16 times in 2010. That number jumped to 39 times in 2011. Some of the blame can be placed in a diminished offensive line that fell from top-10 in 2010 at +2.9 in pass protection to dead last in 2011 at -99.3, almost twice as bad as the lamented Bears. However, some blame has to land on Brandon Jacobs, the lone Giants back who rated negatively as a blocker last season.

    All of a sudden, Wilson makes a lot of sense. He can help the Giants as both a rusher and a blocker and could be the keystone to a return to a balanced offense. As such, I advise some tempering of expectations when it comes to the Giantsí passing game. Eli, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz will not stop being good, but they may not have quite as many opportunities to show you just how good in 2012 as they did in 2011.

  2. #2
    All-Pro B&RWarrior's Avatar
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    I don't agree with much in this article. There was no philosophical shift in offense. We didn't run because we couldn't run. When you can't run you have to pass.

    To single out BJ for the pass protection problems is asinine. He's a RB. His job is to pick up the blitz. He's not a full time blocker. The O-line get's 99% of the blame. Because they couldn't run block well we had to pass more giving opposing defenses more chances to rush the passer. So the jump in sack numbers are a combination of more opportunities and a decrease in pass protection performance.

    IDK where he was going with the increase in pass attempts number w/o AB. So you mean we had to pass more when AB was out of the lineup. So AB is a better runner than BJ. Stop the presses!

    IDK how you can single out RB with 23 more sacks given up from the prior year. He also mention's in passing that the OL that ranked in the top 10 in pass protection in 2010 ranked DEAD LAST in 2011. Yet he felt the need to single out BJ who never played a down on the OL.

    After all of this he concludes that Wilson was brought in as a blocker and a "keystone to a return in balanced offense". Wilson does a lot of things well blocking is not one of them.

    Run blocking is the only thing that will return balance to our offense. Trent Richardson would struggle to run behind our line the way they blocked last year. AB had to make 3 moves just to get back to the line of scrimmage last year. Even with Wilson, AB is still our most elusive runner.

    Scott Spratt likes numbers but he's failed to build a credible argument that is backed by the numbers he's provided. FAIL
    In the tough times we find out who we are...that's why I know VC will be back better than ever in 2015. #80 NYG4life!

  3. #3
    All-Pro JJC7301's Avatar
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    "As such, I advise some tempering of expectations when it comes to the Giantsí passing game. Eli, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz will not stop being good, but they may not have quite as many opportunities to show you just how good in 2012 as they did in 2011."

    I'm excited about Wilson, but I especially agree with this statement. I believe that Nicks and Cruz will be doubled a lot more like they were in the SB until a 3rd receiver can prove himself.

  4. #4
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    [quote user="JJC7301"]"As such, I advise some tempering of expectations when it comes to the Giantsí passing game. Eli, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz will not stop being good, but they may not have quite as many opportunities to show you just how good in 2012 as they did in 2011."

    I'm excited about Wilson, but I especially agree with this statement. I believe that Nicks and Cruz will be doubled a lot more like they were in the SB until a 3rd receiver can prove himself.[/quote]

    Martellus Bennett couldn't be in a better situation to make a name for himself in this league.

  5. #5
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    [quote user="JJC7301"]"As such, I advise some tempering of expectations when it comes to the Giantsí passing game. Eli, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz will not stop being good, but they may not have quite as many opportunities to show you just how good in 2012 as they did in 2011."

    I'm excited about Wilson, but I especially agree with this statement. I believe that Nicks and Cruz will be doubled a lot more like they were in the SB until a 3rd receiver can prove himself.[/quote]

    Martellus Bennett couldn't be in a better situation to make a name for himself in this league.

  6. #6
    All-Pro JJC7301's Avatar
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    [quote user="NY_Eli"][quote user="JJC7301"]"As such, I advise some tempering of expectations when it comes to the Giantsí passing game. Eli, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz will not stop being good, but they may not have quite as many opportunities to show you just how good in 2012 as they did in 2011."

    I'm excited about Wilson, but I especially agree with this statement. I believe that Nicks and Cruz will be doubled a lot more like they were in the SB until a 3rd receiver can prove himself.[/quote]

    Martellus Bennett couldn't be in a better situation to make a name for himself in this league.[/quote]
    Absolutely, otherwise they're really going to miss Ballard who was having an excellent season last year.

  7. #7
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    if our oline doesn't play any better, Wilson won't make much of a difference imo.

  8. #8
    All-Pro jomo's Avatar
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants



    Ithink the articlemostly misses the key points. There are 3 main reasons for the Wilson selection. First and formost, it is an area of great need especially considering that our OL is just OK in "run mode". Any old back won't do and Danny Ware is a C grade back. Scott is an unknown. We couldn't go into the season like that. (the writer vaguely touches on that).




    What he misses completely is that Wilson is not just a pick for this year but for future years. Bradshaw is already on borrowed time as an NFL running back. He is also hurt every year. (love the guy, love his heart and love his production but facts are facts). Jerry Reese as always is thinking in 3 dimensions whereas most writers think in one dimension on a good day.




    Lastly, Wilson gives Eli something he doesn't now have; a real weapon out of the backfield on the pass. Jacobs was D grade receiver, Bradshaw a C+ and although Ware could at least catch he was no threat after the catch. Wilson totally changes that which actually makes our passing attack more lethal when Wilson is in there.

    No one remembers who came in second.

  9. #9
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    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    [quote user="JJC7301"]"As such, I advise some tempering of expectations when it comes to the Giantsí passing game. Eli, Hakeem Nicks, and Victor Cruz will not stop being good, but they may not have quite as many opportunities to show you just how good in 2012 as they did in 2011."

    I'm excited about Wilson, but I especially agree with this statement. I believe that Nicks and Cruz will be doubled a lot more like they were in the SB until a 3rd receiver can prove himself.[/quote]

    I actually hope nicks and cruz numbers come down some without us sacrificing points/wins.
    To the outside world, maybe they won't seem so godlike and we can then try to retain both.

  10. #10

    Re: Fantasy: David Wilson Can Return Balance to the Giants

    Can they stop comparing Bradshaw to Wilson? Bradshaw isn't the same shifty back he was when he entered the league. He runs downhill very physically. Basically he is a smaller powerback.

    Bradshaw was never as explosive as Wilson either way.

    Comparing them is an insult to Bradshaw physical running style and Wilson's homerun ability.

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