Something to do on offense?
"But the most important thing to take away from Zeus' findings is that the math isn't even close. The numbers are so overwhelming that teams that kick field goals on fourth and short at the 20-yard line aren't just wrong, they're so wrong it's ludicrous. For the Texas Hold ‘Em players out there, kicking a field goal in that situation is like folding pocket aces pre-flop against a smaller pocket pair. You're conceding when you're the overwhelming favorite. Even if the guy hits his set and wins the hand, you don't have any regrets. You know you made the right call and that you'll win the hand a majority of the time. NFL teams kick the field goal and "take the points" virtually every time when in reality a field goal kicker (like a punter) should only be used in times of desperation. When it's fourth and 15, for example.
reaks down its calculations into GWC or "Game Winning Chance." By going for the field goal in the previous example -- fourth and 1 at the 20-yard line -- a team decreases its chances of winning by X percent. Since there are so few offensive plays in the average game (usually around 70-90 depending on the team) every punt or field goal attempt chosen incorrectly can have a profound effect on the outcome of the game."
What do you think, ( you should read the whole article)
The big thing is that the NFL season is honestly too short for a legitimate sample size to build up to trend anything in a single season. Mike Smith went for it on 4th and 1 twice against us in the WC round, and what did it get him? Yeah, if every play was 4th and 1, he'd convert quite a lot of those, just from a statistical perspective. But the two most crucial plays and he bombs on both of them.
Baseball had its moneyball revolution because their season has 10 times the number of games as football. Stats become significant over such a large sample size...
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