I think my argument is pretty solid. No slot Wr is worth 45 mill to me, not even Welker. With Nicks sub par year, Cruz was very average. Outside wrs are more important imo.
Ergo, visa vi, Nicks is probably looking for around the same or even more, and teams desperate for a WR will likely throw the money at him.
If Cruz balls out, though, he'll see that money -- all of it. And slot receiver or not, he'll be worth it.