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  1. #31
    All-Pro slipknottin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoanokeFan View Post
    I don't disagree, except to say I think a few players like Welker and Cruz are exceptional at what they do which is why they create the numbers they do.

    I think in 2013 we'll have Nicks and Cruz and in 2014, we may have to lose one. Until then, here's to playing at home in the next Super Bowl
    Yea. Welker and Cruz turn that ~800 yards into 1200+ yards. So I consider them more 500-800 yard receivers. Rather than 1200 yard guys.

  2. #32
    Moderator RoanokeFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipknottin View Post
    Yea. Welker and Cruz turn that ~800 yards into 1200+ yards. So I consider them more 500-800 yard receivers. Rather than 1200 yard guys.
    Aren't yards yards? It's what any receiver does after the catch that matters most.
    “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” MB Rule # 1


  3. #33
    All-Pro slipknottin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoanokeFan View Post
    Aren't yards yards? It's what any receiver does after the catch that matters most.
    Well there are ways to create mismatches that make some yards easier to get. A slot receiver with a two way go inherently has more chances to get the ball than an outside receiver who has the sideline working against him.

    It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)

    Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.

    So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.

    I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million

  4. #34
    Moderator RoanokeFan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipknottin View Post
    Well there are ways to create mismatches that make some yards easier to get. A slot receiver with a two way go inherently has more chances to get the ball than an outside receiver who has the sideline working against him.

    It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)

    Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.

    So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.

    I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million
    I've seen that combination of years/dollars before and I think that's about right depending on the guarantee.
    “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.” MB Rule # 1


  5. #35
    Starter PBTimmons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipknottin View Post
    Well there are ways to create mismatches that make some yards easier to get. A slot receiver with a two way go inherently has more chances to get the ball than an outside receiver who has the sideline working against him.

    It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)

    Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.

    So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.

    I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million
    This is kind of the Moneyball way of looking at it. Which is fully credible, but I'm not sure it is a philosophy shared universally across the NFL. Smart teams look at it this way, which is why NYG and Patriots wont overpay a guy like Cruz or Welker, respectively. The problem is teams like the Bills, Jags and other teams who overpay big name players in hopes of selling more tickets.
    Quote Originally Posted by PBTimmons View Post
    This. Pugh is not happening. Not. Happening.

  6. #36
    All-Pro slipknottin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBTimmons View Post
    This is kind of the Moneyball way of looking at it. Which is fully credible, but I'm not sure it is a philosophy shared universally across the NFL. Smart teams look at it this way, which is why NYG and Patriots wont overpay a guy like Cruz or Welker, respectively. The problem is teams like the Bills, Jags and other teams who overpay big name players in hopes of selling more tickets.
    The problem for other teams is that Cruz is not a good outside receiver. He is very average at best, and most teams don't have an offense that features a slot receiver who has options on every route he runs. Which is what Cruz does.

    It's not like Cruz is plug and play elsewhere. The patriots would love him, but not sure how many other teams would. Same reason welker is unlikely to fetch a huge deal in FA. Also why he was not nearly as productive as a receiver in Miami.

  7. #37
    All-Pro Drez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Morehead State View Post
    Last year he had his contract restructured to get under the cap and negotiated a $9MM raise in return. If you think that Eli (or anyone) is taking a pay cut to fit the team under the cap you are dilusional.
    Eli didn't get a raise, MS. He converted base salary into a guaranteed signing bonus so it could be pro-rated over the remaining years of his contract. That in turn raised the cap hit of his contract after 2012, but he isn't getting any extra money whatsoever.
    Last edited by Drez; 02-19-2013 at 11:03 AM.

  8. #38
    All-Pro Drez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EliDaMANning View Post
    If these clowns put in RR when Nicks was injured earlier in the season we would've been able to see how expendable Nicks is. I like Nicks, he's a great player but I believe he can be replaced along with Cruz.
    If you think Nicks is expendable, I don't think you realize quite how difficult it is to do what he does at the level he does it.

  9. #39
    All-Pro Morehead State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drez View Post
    Eli didn't get a raise, MS. He converted base salary into a guaranteed signing bonus so it could be pro-rated over the remaining years of his contract. That in turn raised the cap hit of his contract after 2012, but he isn't getting any extra money whatsoever.
    What they did was guarantee an addition $9MM in his contract.
    He got something for redoing his deal.
    "Phil Simms is the greatest QB in Giants history" ........Mahatma Gandhi

  10. #40
    All-Pro Drez's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Morehead State View Post
    What they did was guarantee an addition $9MM in his contract.
    He got something for redoing his deal.
    No, he didn't. He restructured, not renegotiated.

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