It's sort of like giving a QB the passing yards on a screen play. Whether it goes for -5 or +50 the QB has little to do with the net result. (Ignoring audibles and what not)
Cruz gets easier opportunities to create yards than an outside receiver does. Which is why I think slot receivers are going to remain underpaid. If you can swap in a lot of various receivers and get lets say 600 yards with any of them, then Cruz's value is whatever random receiver that gets those 600 yards gets paid, plus the additional yards cruz creates, the extra 400-900 yards is his value.
So if a guy like Jernigan could put up 600 yards, but is making 600k a year. Then say Cruz is 600k a year + his additional yards. 1100-600= 500. Admittedly it gets more and more difficult to get more yards. His first big year he had 1,500 yards, so that year he should have been paid like a 900 yard receiver. Average them out, slant it a bit heavy towards the higher numbers. Lets say 800 yards a year.
I think going by that his max value is probably around what Colston got. 5 years 35 million
It's not like Cruz is plug and play elsewhere. The patriots would love him, but not sure how many other teams would. Same reason welker is unlikely to fetch a huge deal in FA. Also why he was not nearly as productive as a receiver in Miami.
Last edited by Drez; 02-19-2013 at 11:03 AM.