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Thread: A look at the12'-13' NFL draft

  1. #1421
    All-Pro nycsportzfan's Avatar
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    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    [quote user="Redeyejedi"]Anyone got any thoughts on Tori Gurley from South Carolina. During the season he looked like a tight end playing receiver. He was 6' 4" 233. At the pro day he was down to 216. I thought he would of made a real good TE in time. He has long arms 35" and blocks real well and doesnt drop anything. I guess he is going to try to make it as a receiver, thoughts[/quote] I think Tori's a nice later rd pick, and can help in the redzone, and maybe become a Legadue Nanee type reciever for someone...

  2. #1422

    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft



    This is a guy that I think is going to have a huge Junior year. He had 39 tackles and 8 sacks as a sophomore. He is very gifted physically at 6-7 249 pounds and a 81 " Wingspan. He kind of resembles JPP in a way. He is a little raw but all the tools are there




    Devin Taylor vs Alabama and Georgia




    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ8pfhJQ4lM


  3. #1423

    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    [quote user="nycsportzfan"][quote user="Redeyejedi"]Anyone got any thoughts on Tori Gurley from South Carolina. During the season he looked like a tight end playing receiver. He was 6' 4" 233. At the pro day he was down to 216. I thought he would of made a real good TE in time. He has long arms 35" and blocks real well and doesnt drop anything. I guess he is going to try to make it as a receiver, thoughts[/quote] I think Tori's a nice later rd pick, and can help in the redzone, and maybe become a Legadue Nanee type reciever for someone...
    [/quote]Dont know why he lost the weight I think he should of put on more. I think he could be a better TE then he is receiver

  4. #1424

    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft



    I found this in a Walter Football Forum from a poster named




    Descendency




    The two safest 34 OLB prospects are... Justin Houston and Dontay Moch?ttp://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...er=asc&start=0








    By now I'm sure all of you know that I'm a numbers person.

    A thread in the draft forum prompted me to go back over my #'s, update them, redo some of them, and adjust the sorting. So here it is, my numerical analysis of the OLB's in the draft.

    I added them all to my database. My database is simple yet complex. It uses all of the basic combine measurements and a few simple formulas to analyze those numbers. My database encompasses every 3-4 OLB drafted in the last 5 drafts, plus notable UDFA's. I try to be as complete as possible. Some players are missing, (notably Elvis Dumervil), unfortunately those players do not have useful numbers available.

    All the players are rated via a simple rating system. Overcomplicating the rating is a waste of time. Here is the key:



    Obviously I had to choose a starter for some teams. I didn't bother to make "he's a backup but should be starting" or "he's starting but he sucks" assumptions. But I did have to assume the starter for some teams. The 2010 guys in red are obviously not injury busts, but they couldn't be evaluated because of injury, so they get lumped into that group.

    A couple other minor matters, gray text are assumed values. Dark violet text is pro day data. All other data is combine data (I used combine data wherever possible).

    The basic methodology is to sort the players into various groups, to concentrate the good ones. After adding another draft and more prospects, I got to thinking that the way I had it was a bit too complex, and wasn't necessarily telling me the right things, nor was it portraying things as I think they should.

    Therefore I've gone through and questioned all of my assumptions, and redone the sorting. Why I try to capture, what the numbers are saying, is the degree of risk invovled with each player, as the numbers see it.

    Formulas used:
    Mass = weight/height
    Explosive Power = (vert+3.5*broad)*(weight/height)/3000
    Speed 10 = 100*(1-(10 Split/(0.0114*(weight/height)+1.1785)))
    Speed 40 = 100*(1-(40 time/(0.0397*(weight/height)+3.092)))
    Speed Avg = (Speed 10 + Speed 40)/2
    Agility = 100*(1-(3 Cone/(0.0573*(weight/height)+4.8403)))
    Twitch = Shuttle - 2*10 yd split - (1.60 - 10 yd split)

    Explosive power is a general measure of the amount of force the player can generate coming out of their stance.

    The 10, 40, and agility measures come from graphing the drill vs. mass for all players, and finding the equation of best fit linear trendline of the data. It is a grade vs. the average of the drill for a given player mass.

    Twitch something that I came up with similar to the fairly well known 40 time minus the shuttle time, that uses a 10 yd split instead of the 40. Since it is a 20 yd vs. 20 yd comparison, guys that can change directions fast will have a lower number, and they will appear sudden on tape. The bit at the end is a modifier that rewards fast guys and penalizes slow guys as it is meant to approximate how sudden a player looks with their movements. Lower is better.

    High Risk:


    First things first, I went and filtered off every player that scored higher than a 1.05 in the explosive power formula. Those players don't seem to be affected by doing well or poor in other drills. Probably an incorrect assmuption, but lacking a test case of a guy that does terrible otherwise, it will have to stick for now.

    Other than that, I sorted guys by the twitch measure, the first group here are guys that scored 1.20 or worse in the twitch formula. It is sorted by draft position. This is a very high risk group, draft with extreme caution. Wimbley is the only one to amount to anything thus far (even though he isn't' with the team that drafted him any longer), but overall he is probably the best across the board in this group workout-wise.

    One thing to note about Wimbley, guys that run a 3 cone under 7 typically will have a scouting report that reads that they have an outside speed rush in their arsenal. The drill isn't all that bad at approximating the movements required for the rush. While that is but a facet of OLB play, it is one, and can go a long way to explaining why Wimbley is the lone bright spot pretty much in this group (Ayers is a yellow too, but aside from technically being a starter, he hasn't shown much).

    Moderate Risk:


    These guys all measured between 1.10 and 1.19 in the twitch formula. The group is sorted by draft position. There area only a limited number of sub-7.0 3 cone guys, so I didn't split them out.

    Success has gone up markedly here over the last group, however noone in this group is beating down Canton's door. Players in this group seem to have a very definite ceiling, and though they make make good complimentary players, you probably are not looking at a pass rusher to be feared.

    Still, players are worth a draft pick. Like I said, moderate risk, no notable busts, however keep your expectations in check with these guys if you want to be happy. Solid has to be good enough.

    Mid-Low Risk:


    You can see a trend developing. These are all the guys that scored under a 1.10 in the twitch formula, however that also ran slower than a 7.0 3 cone. Again sorted by draft position. Babin will forever be considered a bust by the team that drafted him, however he did record double digit sacks and go to the pro bowl this year as a DE. Laboy has always been pretty good at getting to the QB. He's just always banged up. Mid round guys are defeintely worth taking a flier on.

    One thing that holds true for this group, of the ones that got it going, it took them all a while to do so. None of them really did much early in their careers.

    Low Risk 1:


    This is the other half of the last group, all the guys that both had a score of less than 1.10 in the twitch formula, and had a 3 cone time of under 7.0. Again sorted by draft position.

    One thing to take note of is how most of the lesser players are slow. Show up in this group and a guy has a good chance of working out for you. Draft players in this group with confidence.

    Low Risk 2:


    Every player that scored above a 1.05 in the power formula.

    Sort of unbeleivable, isn't it. Maybe Anderson and Barwin will buck the trend and struggle. Maybe Moch will bust.

    Draft with confidence in this group.
    Something to look at when looking at "Low Risk 1" is that the only "busts" are late round picks or UDFAs.

  5. #1425
    All-Pro nycsportzfan's Avatar
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    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    Seeing alot of people are starting to jump on Mikel Leshoure being a first rd pick, and possibly going before Mark Ingram... I wrote this months ago, stating, a Ryan matthews like asenscion in the first rd, and possibly being first back off the board, and i mentioned it often...

    I feel realy good, that prediction is gonna come true, and even though, he might not go before Ingram, will defeinetly go in RD 1... We shall see, but people are starting to jump on that...

  6. #1426

    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    [quote user="nycsportzfan"]Seeing alot of people are starting to jump on Mikel Leshoure being a first rd pick, and possibly going before Mark Ingram... I wrote this months ago, stating, a Ryan matthews like asenscion in the first rd, and possibly being first back off the board, and i mentioned it often...

    I feel realy good, that prediction is gonna come true, and even though, he might not go before Ingram, will defeinetly go in RD 1... We shall see, but people are starting to jump on that...
    [/quote]Have a hard time seeing him go at 12 but yeah I would feel comfortable with taking Leshoure ahead of Ingram

  7. #1427
    All-Pro titwio's Avatar
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    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    I haven't seen any1 discuss this yet but...with the Cowboys looking most likely looking OL in the first....What if Prince slides down to 19....

    Does any1 think the he will be the pick at 19....I have a feeling there may def be some good BPA's available...

    But If Prince is there will Giants take him....?

  8. #1428
    All-Pro nycsportzfan's Avatar
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    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    [quote user="Redeyejedi"][quote user="nycsportzfan"]Seeing alot of people are starting to jump on Mikel Leshoure being a first rd pick, and possibly going before Mark Ingram... I wrote this months ago, stating, a Ryan matthews like asenscion in the first rd, and possibly being first back off the board, and i mentioned it often...

    I feel realy good, that prediction is gonna come true, and even though, he might not go before Ingram, will defeinetly go in RD 1... We shall see, but people are starting to jump on that...
    [/quote]Have a hard time seeing him go at 12 but yeah I would feel comfortable with taking Leshoure ahead of Ingram[/quote] well yeah, obviously, i didn't mean down to the exact pick, i just meant, similar circumstance, where a player climbed at draft time, and went from what everyone thought was a Late 1st/Early 2nd rd projection, to a mid 1st rd pick...

  9. #1429

    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft

    nycsportzfan, how do you "know" the giants are interested in akeem ayers?

  10. #1430

    Re: A look at the 2011 NFL draft



    [quote user="nevada11"]nycsportzfan, how do you "know" the giants are interested in akeem ayers?[/quote]




    www.nationalfootballpost.com/Akeem-Ayers-visits-the-Lions-Eagles-up-next.html







    teams are extremely high on Ayers, including the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs.








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