THE CLUTCH ENIGMA: ELI MANNING'S PLAYOFF PERFORMANCES

[RoanokeFan]

THE CLUTCH ENIGMA: ELI MANNING'S PLAYOFF PERFORMANCES

"Kyle Rodriguez moves to Eli Manning in his continuing evaluation of
clutch quarterback play.


After examining the pressure performances by Tom Brady last week (here and here),
this week we turn our attention to Eli Manning.</p>


While "Little Brother" has shown flashes of the Manning genes in the past,
he's generally been seen as inconsistent, frustrating player. However, after his
stellar season in 2011, capped off by an incredible Super Bowl run, Eli's legacy
has been vaulted to near Hall of Fame worthy levels by some members of the media
(and fans). Critics point to Manning's mediocre career totals, while proponents
point to his two Super Bowl rings and clutch play (a.k.a. "He just wins big
games").</p>


That second part is the part that's questionable, and the part that would
vault Manning to the upper echelon of quarterbacks during this era. So, has
Manning's play in pressure situations truly been exceptional, or is this merely
another misconception?</p>


To answer that question, we'll again look at Manning in two parts, his
playoff performances and his situational statistics. Today will be just the
playoff performances, with the situational statistics and a final conclusion
coming later this week.</p>


Regular Season Statistics</p>
<table frame="box" border="1" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Games</td>
<td>Comp. %</td>
<td>Y/A</td>
<td>Yards/Game</td>
<td>Touchdowns (%)</td>
<td>Interceptions (%)</td>
<td>Sack Rate</td>
<td>QB Rating</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2004</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>48.2%</td>
<td>5.29</td>
<td>115.9</td>
<td>6 (3.05%)</td>
<td>9 (4.57%)</td>
<td>6.19%</td>
<td>55.4</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2005</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>52.8%</td>
<td>6.75</td>
<td>235.1</td>
<td>24 (4.31%)</td>
<td>17 (3.05%)</td>
<td>4.79%</td>
<td>75.9</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2006</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>57.6%</td>
<td>6.21</td>
<td>202.75</td>
<td>24 (4.6%)</td>
<td>18 (3.45%)</td>
<td>4.57%</td>
<td>77</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2007</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>56.1%</td>
<td>6.31</td>
<td>208.5</td>
<td>23 (4.35%)</td>
<td>20 (3.78%)</td>
<td>4.86%</td>
<td>73.9</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>60.3%</td>
<td>6.76</td>
<td>202.4</td>
<td>21 (4.38%)</td>
<td>10 (2.09%)</td>
<td>5.34%</td>
<td>84.6</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>62.3%</td>
<td>7.90</td>
<td>251.3</td>
<td>27 (5.3%)</td>
<td>14 (2.75%)</td>
<td>5.57%</td>
<td>93.1</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>7.42</td>
<td>250.1</td>
<td>31 (5.75%)</td>
<td>25 (4.64%)</td>
<td>2.88%</td>
<td>85.3</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>60.95%</td>
<td>8.38</td>
<td>308.3</td>
<td>29 (4.92%)</td>
<td>16 (2.72%)</td>
<td>4.54%</td>
<td>92.9</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Totals</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>58.43%</td>
<td>7.03</td>
<td>227.9</td>
<td>185 (4.72%)</td>
<td>129 (3.29%)</td>
<td>4.71%</td>
<td>82.1</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Totals w/o 2011</td>
<td>105</td>
<td>57.98%</td>
<td>6.80</td>
<td>209.4</td>
<td>156 (4.68%)</td>
<td>113 (3.39%)</td>
<td>4.75%</td>
<td>80.2</td></tr></tbody></table>


Playoff Statistics</p>
<table border="1" align="center">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Games</td>
<td>Comp. %</td>
<td>Y/A</td>
<td>Yards/Game</td>
<td>Touchdowns (%)</td>
<td>Interceptions (%)</td>
<td>Sack Rate</td>
<td>QB Rating</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2004</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2005</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>55.56%</td>
<td>6.28</td>
<td>113</td>
<td>0 (0%)</td>
<td>3 (16.67%)</td>
<td>18.18%</td>
<td>35</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2006</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>59.26%</td>
<td>5.96</td>
<td>161</td>
<td>2 (7.41%)</td>
<td>1 (3.7%)</td>
<td>3.57%</td>
<td>85.6</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2007</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>60.50%</td>
<td>7.18</td>
<td>213.5</td>
<td>6 (5.04%)</td>
<td>1 (0.84%)</td>
<td>7.03%</td>
<td>95.7</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>51.72%</td>
<td>5.83</td>
<td>169</td>
<td>0 (0%)</td>
<td>2 (6.9%)</td>
<td>0%</td>
<td>40.7</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>-</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>65.03%</td>
<td>7.48</td>
<td>304.75</td>
<td>9 (5.52%)</td>
<td>1 (0.61%)</td>
<td>6.32%</td>
<td>103.3</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Totals</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>61.52%</td>
<td>7.07</td>
<td>228.7</td>
<td>17 (4.78%)</td>
<td>8 (2.25%)</td>
<td>6.56%</td>
<td>89.3</td></tr>
<tr>
<td>Totals w/o 2011</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>58.55%</td>
<td>6.72</td>
<td>185.3</td>
<td>8 (4.15%)</td>
<td>7 (3.63%)</td>
<td>6.76%</td>
<td>77.73</td></tr></tbody></table>


Now, normally I have a problem with excluding parts of a player's career when
analyzing them, but I think it's important to realize how good Manning's 2011
playoffs were.</p>


But we'll get to that. When you look at Manning's stats, it's clear to see
that the last four years have been his best, yet he has only led his team to the
playoffs in two of those years. His play (overall) was slightly below average
for the first four years of his career, but since 2008 it has been above
average.</p>


When comparing Manning's playoff stats to his regular season stats, it seems
at first that he has performed better in the playoffs than in the regular
season, with over a seven point advantage in quarterback rating. However, when
one looks at the playoffs without 2011, Manning's numbers in the playoffs look
much worse, and worse than his already mediocre career numbers for the regular
season.</p>


Looking specifically at his playoff games, Manning has gone to the playoffs
five times. Three of those occasions, the Giants lost the first game. On two of
those occasions, (2005 and 2008) Manning was terrible, posting ratings of 35.0
and 40.7. In 2006, Manning was decent, and even led his team on a game-tying
touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. But the Giants wouldn't see the ball
again, and the Eagles kicked the game winning field goal as time expired.</p>


That leaves 2007 and 2011 as the two remaining trips to the playoffs. In
2007, Manning had two great games against the Bucs and Cowboys, and then
mediocre games against the Packers and Patriots. Of course, Manning was very
good in the fourth quarter of those games, going 15/24 for two touchdowns (both
in the Super Bowl). In the Green Bay game, he led the team on two potentially
game winning drives, but Lawrence Tynes missed 36 and 43 yard field goals.
Fortunately, he made a 47 yarder in overtime (where Manning did nothing) to
win.</p>


In 2011, Manning was great in every game but the NFC Championship, where he
was decent against a very good defense. The playoffs Manning had in 2011 were
fantastic, and came, fortunately, in just the right time for the team to win a
Super Bowl.</p>


So, Manning had two great playoff runs in eight years. Those runs were
fantastic, but it really just indicates just how streaky Manning's career has
been. When he gets hot, he can be one of the 5 best quarterbacks in the league.
When he's not, he's inaccurate and makes bad decisions, and is a detriment to
his team. The difference in Manning's 2011 season is that he was able to be much
more consistent. In the playoffs (as well as in 2007), Manning was able to
continues doing what he had done all season, while being careful with the
football and limiting his turnovers.</p>


When you combine that with an opportunistic defense getting hot at the same
time (Manning has never won a playoff game where the opposing team has scored
more than 20... and has never lost when they've scored 20 or less) and you get
some pretty incredible playoff runs."</p>

[DJloves]

I'll take two hot playoff runs over what most other QBs have: zero.

[nygsb42champs]

Eli has been clutch since day 1. Even when he struggled in his first few years he was always at his best late in the game.

[Spedracer]

This guy is blinded by numbers. I may be blinded by fan-dom but I believe despite the first game of 2011, Eli was consistent and efficient, not to mention clutch. Take into account that he had no running game to rely on and considering that, QB's would sell their soul to have a season as good as Eli had.

BTW, Eli was throwing frozen ropes on the frozen tundra of 2007 NFC Championship game. To say he looked bad in that game is a complete joke.

[NYG 5]

in 2005 he was atrocious, but that was his first playoff game against a very good panther defense that almost went back to the super bowl.

in 2006 he was ok, i think that year he still wasn't that good yet, and losing Petitgout and Toomer really hurt the offense, and the defense was pathetic again without Strahan

in 2007 he was great, how many people can you say had a BETTER postseason? maybe Montana in 89 when the 49ers just steamrolled everyone

in 2008 he was atrocious, an inexcusable, returned to chuck and duck Eli

2011 he had a fantastic postseason and better super bowl. again, hard to think of a better run. the 49er game was also a great performance because he took a beating and never put the ball in dangerous territory, which is another barometer of a player. how good they can be at their best, and how good they can be when they have to do it all alone. plus, you look at the season and see that at least 80% of the games he had all-pro, MVP calibur performances.

also, for his stats, you should take out his worst year, 2005, and his best year, 2011, and see how it looks. those 4 picks really skew the numbers

[scoopscj]

From here on out, you'll never find Eli Manning in an automatic car.


You know why... because he's clutch.



Scoops

[GmenFan1980]

[quote user="NYG 5"]in 2005 he was atrocious, but that was his first playoff game against a very good panther defense that almost went back to the super bowl.

in 2006 he was ok, i think that year he still wasn't that good yet, and losing Petitgout and Toomer really hurt the offense, and the defense was pathetic again without Strahan

in 2007 he was great, how many people can you say had a BETTER postseason? maybe Montana in 89 when the 49ers just steamrolled everyone

in 2008 he was atrocious, an inexcusable, returned to chuck and duck Eli

2011 he had a fantastic postseason and better super bowl. again, hard to think of a better run. the 49er game was also a great performance because he took a beating and never put the ball in dangerous territory, which is another barometer of a player. how good they can be at their best, and how good they can be when they have to do it all alone. plus, you look at the season and see that at least 80% of the games he had all-pro, MVP calibur performances.

also, for his stats, you should take out his worst year, 2005, and his best year, 2011, and see how it looks. those 4 picks really skew the numbers
[/quote]

Are you sure you don't mean 2010 where you wrote about 08? just confused, cause although his yards were still low at the time, I thought Eli played well in 08, at least till the Plaxico incident happened anyway

[NYG 5]

[quote user="GmenFan1980"][quote user="NYG 5"]in 2005 he was atrocious, but that was his first playoff game against a very good panther defense that almost went back to the super bowl.

in 2006 he was ok, i think that year he still wasn't that good yet, and losing Petitgout and Toomer really hurt the offense, and the defense was pathetic again without Strahan

in 2007 he was great, how many people can you say had a BETTER postseason? maybe Montana in 89 when the 49ers just steamrolled everyone

in 2008 he was atrocious, an inexcusable, returned to chuck and duck Eli

2011 he had a fantastic postseason and better super bowl. again, hard to think of a better run. the 49er game was also a great performance because he took a beating and never put the ball in dangerous territory, which is another barometer of a player. how good they can be at their best, and how good they can be when they have to do it all alone. plus, you look at the season and see that at least 80% of the games he had all-pro, MVP calibur performances.

also, for his stats, you should take out his worst year, 2005, and his best year, 2011, and see how it looks. those 4 picks really skew the numbers
[/quote]

Are you sure you don't mean 2010 where you wrote about 08? just confused, cause although his yards were still low at the time, I thought Eli played well in 08, at least till the Plaxico incident happened anyway[/quote]

i was just talking about playoff performances. he was really good in the 2008 season, very smart with the football, and played his role well in a run first offense. just in the playoffs he became a totally different player. goes into heinz field, plays tough. goes into arizona, plays tough. gets into the playoffs, throws it up for grabs as soon as someone breathes on him, couldn't get the ball downfield. very disappointing.

2009 and 2010 he was very good too, he just wasn't good enough to carry the team yet.

[RoanokeFan]

[quote user="scoopscj"]From here on out, you'll never find Eli Manning in an automatic car.


You know why... because he's clutch.



Scoops


[/quote]

[GMen869007]

[quote user="NYG 5"][quote user="GmenFan1980"][quote user="NYG 5"]in 2005 he was atrocious, but that was his first playoff game against a very good panther defense that almost went back to the super bowl.

in 2006 he was ok, i think that year he still wasn't that good yet, and losing Petitgout and Toomer really hurt the offense, and the defense was pathetic again without Strahan

in 2007 he was great, how many people can you say had a BETTER postseason? maybe Montana in 89 when the 49ers just steamrolled everyone

in 2008 he was atrocious, an inexcusable, returned to chuck and duck Eli

2011 he had a fantastic postseason and better super bowl. again, hard to think of a better run. the 49er game was also a great performance because he took a beating and never put the ball in dangerous territory, which is another barometer of a player. how good they can be at their best, and how good they can be when they have to do it all alone. plus, you look at the season and see that at least 80% of the games he had all-pro, MVP calibur performances.

also, for his stats, you should take out his worst year, 2005, and his best year, 2011, and see how it looks. those 4 picks really skew the numbers
[/quote]

Are you sure you don't mean 2010 where you wrote about 08? just confused, cause although his yards were still low at the time, I thought Eli played well in 08, at least till the Plaxico incident happened anyway[/quote]

i was just talking about playoff performances. he was really good in the 2008 season, very smart with the football, and played his role well in a run first offense. just in the playoffs he became a totally different player. goes into heinz field, plays tough. goes into arizona, plays tough. gets into the playoffs, throws it up for grabs as soon as someone breathes on him, couldn't get the ball downfield. very disappointing.

2009 and 2010 he was very good too, he just wasn't good enough to carry the team yet.
[/quote]

It became an entirely different offense when we lost Plaxico, that's what I attribute those 2 back to back losses against the Eagles and Cowboys, and the playoff loss to. We couldn't generate anything on offense in any of those games after leading the NFL in points scored.